Rip City Project
Fansided

Who fits Blazers offense better, Nik Stauskas or Pat Connaughton?

By Nate Mann

BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 9: Nik Stauskas #11 of the Philadelphia 76ers shoots the ball against the Boston Celtics during the preseason game on October 9, 2017 at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 9: Nik Stauskas #11 of the Philadelphia 76ers shoots the ball against the Boston Celtics during the preseason game on October 9, 2017 at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

On the surface, Nik Stauskas and Pat Connaughton are the same player. But after looking deeper, Neil Olshey may have been right about Stauskas being an improvement for the Blazers.

As a rapid reaction to the signing of Nik Stauskas, I compared he and Pat Connaughton. I concluded that the two players perform very similarly using broad per-36 stats. Connaughton might have cost more to retain, but his already-established team chemistry gave him the slight benefit in my eyes.

Related Story: Is Nik Stauskas an improvement on Pat Connaughton?

Neil Olshey explained his thought process behind the replacement; he mentioned the same stat I compared: three-point shooting.

So, to try and support the GM’s decision, I looked more deeply at Stauskas versus Connaughton’s three-point shooting.

Breaking down Pat Connaughton’s three-pointers

Of Connaughton’s 390 field goal attempts in 2017-2018, 56.3% of them were three-pointers. Half of those threes were defined as catch and shoot (take 0 dribbles and shoot within two seconds of getting the ball).

Catch and shoot was Connaughton’s most attempted type of three by far. The next highest was pull-up three-pointers which accounted for 5.7%.

Connaughton took 26.5% of his three-pointers with a defender 4 to 6 feet away. He shot almost as many with no defenders within 6 feet of him (24.6%).

Due to the uncontested nature of these attempts, 50.5% of his threes came off 0 dribbles, and 51.4% were shot within 2 seconds of catching the ball.

According to Neil Olshey, Nik Stauskas will replace Connaughton in Portland’s offense. The style of offense shown by these stats isn’t new for Stauskas, who had 67.1% of his shot attempts come from three in 2017-2018.

Nik Stauskas vs. Pat Connaughton

From looking at Connaughton’s 2017-2018 numbers, catch and shoot threes were the most prevalent. He converted 34.4% of them, while Stauskas converted 42.6%.

Connaughton shot 7% better on his pull-up threes than Stauskas, but those are attempted far less in Portland’s bench unit offense.

Looking more closely at the two parameters of a catch and shoot three-pointer (dribbles and time), Stauskas outperformed Connaughton again. The new signing made 42.6% of his threes that required no dribbles and 40.5% that were taken in less than 2 seconds. Pat, on the other hand, hit 35.1% of his no-dribble threes and 34.6% of his threes shot in under 2 seconds.

Connaughton did make a higher percentage of his three-pointers with a defender 4 to 6 feet away. He converted 40.2% of those, compared to Stauskas’ 34.1%.

Evan Turner passing

At the press conference Friday morning, Olshey said that Evan Turner will run the offense for Portland’s reserve unit.

Last season, Turner averaged 2.2 assists per game, the lowest of his eight-year career. In addition, his assist-to-turnover ratio was 1.75. Out of 283 qualified players (played over 41 games and 15 minutes per game), this ratio ranked No. 112.

Turner passed to Connaughton 7.8% of the time – Connaughton made 32.1% of his three-pointers off those passes. If Stauskas continues his catch and shoot success, Turner’s assist averages should improve and warrant more passes.

Blazers assist problems

Turner isn’t the only player struggling to tally assists. In 2017-2018, the Blazers ranked last in the league for assists per game (19.5). As a result, only 72.1% of the team’s three-pointers were assisted, 29th in the league.

Despite the low assist numbers, Portland still recorded 13.5 turnovers per game. This generated an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.44, 3rd worst in the NBA.

Unfortunately, missed shots weren’t the reason behind the low assist totals. The Blazers ranked 29th in potential assists and made the 3rd least number of passes per game.

Ball handlers like Turner and Damian Lillard can flip the script on this recurring team passing problem. By creating more potential assists, the roster’s shooters can capitalize on better looks.

Next: Why it was so important to re-sign Jusuf Nurkic

Replacing Connaughton with Stauskas becomes a more evident upgrade if he’s given these uncontested looks. We now understand how much better Stauskas shoots from the more frequently attempted three-pointers in Portland’s offense, so the game plan should focus on providing more of those opportunities.

Who knows if Neil Olshey looked at the intricacies of Connaughton and Stauskas’ three-point shooting. But if he can get the offense running the optimal way, Stauskas will be an improvement on Connaughton in terms of three-point shooting success.