Confidence changes Damian Lillard’s shooting success

Using ESPN’s play-by-plays for all 73 games, RCP expert Nate Mann discovered how important Damian Lillard’s starts are to his shooting success game-to-game.

Reaching an elite level of basketball talent is as much mental as it is physical. Case in point: Kobe Bryant. The NBA world attributes Kobe’s unparalleled success to his incredible work ethic. Stories of gym visits at 4:00 a.m. and still being the last guy there created the most confident basketball player of a generation. Who else attempts a fadeaway jumper with four defenders in his face?

But there’s more to a player’s confidence than practicing any shot or play over and over. Confidence can grow or fade during individual games based on early success – or failure – from the field. We commonly refer to this phenomenon as shooting streaks.

Streaks have always been a fairly common occurrence: One player finds his groove and begins taking bolder shots. Attempts not in his usual arsenal still fall.

But why? Is the confidence from earlier consecutive makes enough to improve his shooting percentage?

Using Rip City’s very own Damian Lillard, I attempted to answer these questions.

He’s certainly capable of catching fire – hence “Dame Time.” We need to examine how Lillard’s first few attempts affect his overall performance on a game-by-game basis.

In the 73 games Lillard played during the 2017-2018 season, he started off 0/3 or worse in 15 games and 3/3 or better in eight games. From this sample size, we can demonstrate the impact that confidence has on Lillard’s MVP-caliber performances.

Shot Attempts

No matter Dame’s start, he manages to attempt nearly the same amount of shots each game.

• 0/3 or worse: 19.2 shot attempts, 8.8 three-pointer attempts per game.
• 3/3 or better: 18.9 shot attempts, 8.9 three-pointer attempts per game.
• Season average: 19.4 shot attempts, 8.6 three-pointer attempts per game.

The Portland Trail Blazers rank last in the league for assists per game – meaning there’s a lot of isolation play. Lillard is the team’s first option offensively and creates most of his own shots. Therefore, a strong or poor start doesn’t impact how many field goals he attempts. The offense still runs through Dame and its success relies on Lillard shooting whether his shots are falling or not.

For an off-ball player like Al-Farouq Aminu, shot attempts may dip after a poor start. He’ll hesitate when slightly contested or move away from the ball to avoid the responsibility of shooting. But if Aminu hits consecutive threes to start, he’ll call for passes and pull the trigger with far less hesitation.

Shooting Success

            Differences in hot versus cold starts begin to show in Lillard’s success from the field by game’s end. While he shoots the same amount no matter what, Dame converts 40.9% of field goals when starting 0/3 or worse. That percentage jumps to 52.9% after a strong start to the game – much higher than even his season average of 43.9%.

Three-point conversion differs even more. Lillard makes 29.5% of his perimeter shots following an early cold streak, but an incredible 52.1% drop after a hot streak to start a game. His season average for three-pointers is 36.8%.

Free Throws

To help the Blazers offensively when his jump shots are not successful, Lillard attacks the rim more often. When beginning a game 0/3 or worse, he earns 8.2 free throws per game. This is marginally higher than his season average (7.4) and significantly higher than in games that he starts 3/3 or better (6.4). Dame is a top-tier free throw shooter, so streaky starts don’t affect him at the charity stripe.

Points and Assists

From his shooting success, it’s obvious Dame scores more following a strong start than a slow one. To quantify it, he records 5.7 more points when kicking off the game hot: 30.9 points versus 25.2 points.

Perhaps more interesting is the discrepancy between his assist numbers. After digging through the games that he begins either hot or cold, the assist tallies vary impressively. An 0/3 start leads to 5.6 assists on the game, compared to 8.1 following a strong start.

The logical explanation for this goes as such: Dame takes the same amount of shots no matter what. When starting well, more of the approximately 19 attempts are successful and vice versa. If he knocks down the first few looks, defenses increase their pressure on him. Lillard therefore finds open teammates more easily, while still connecting on more shots, leading to better field goal percentage and assist tallies.

Team Record

In the 15 games Lillard started 0/3 or worse, the Blazers went 9-6. The average winning percentage of these 15 opponents combined is 590-640 (.479). In the eight games he started 3/3 or better, the Blazers went 7-1. The average winning percentage of these eight opponents combined is 313-343 (.477). The similarity of opponent difficulty in the 23 qualified matchups shows no correlation between which team Portland played and Dame’s early success from the field.

However, the Blazers’ winning percentages do indicate how the team as a whole performs if Lillard can’t connect early on: 9-6 when he starts 0/3 or worse versus 7-1 when he starts 3/3 or better against roughly the same level of competition.

Advanced stats aren’t needed to validate this point. When the Blazers win, Lillard averages 27.3 points, 6.9 assists, 1.1 steals and 3.1 three-pointers on 44.5% shooting. When the Blazers lose, he averages 26.3 points, 6.2 assists, 1.0 steals and 3.1 three-pointers on 43.0% shooting. Despite no major discrepancies, the slight uptick across all categories indicates his importance to Portland’s success.

Next: Blazers swept by Pelicans, first team to go home

CJ McCollum’s Averages

Lillard’s streaky starts did not affect teammate CJ McCollum much. McCollum’s shooting and assist numbers nearly matched his season averages when Dame began 0/3 or worse. Points dropped less than 0.3, assists 0.8, field goal makes 0.2 and field goal attempts 1.1.

When Dame started hot, CJ also gained some confidence. He shot the ball two more times per game for a 2.5-point increase (21.4 to 23.9).

In both scenarios, McCollum’s assist tallies dipped. If Lillard started poorly, perhaps his backcourt pal felt the need to pick up more offensive responsibility in the scoring department. Furthermore, Dame’s leadership role could help spread confidence to teammates following a successful first few attempts.