Three keys to the Blazers’ first-round playoff series against the Pelicans

The Portland Trail Blazers open their 2018 postseason Saturday night at home against the New Orleans Pelicans. What’s it gonna take to win the series?

The Blazers and Pelicans met four times during the 2017-2018 season. And, as our own Nate Mann has documented, the teams split the season series at two games apiece.

What were some of the determining factors in the series?

Since basketball is a game of runs — and since the law of averages plays such a huge role — it’s sometimes — not always, but sometimes — difficult to specify which individual performances or statistical categories were most relevant to a particular win or loss.

But over a four-game season series — and especially over a best-of-seven playoff series — some clear signs do begin to emerge.

Let’s take a look at a few, shall we?

1. Blazers’ Three-Point Shooting

In both of their wins against the Pelicans this season, the Blazers shot better from three than their opponent.

In Portland’s 103-93 home victory against New Orleans on Oct. 24, the Blazers shot 34.5 percent from three to the Pelicans’ 30 percent. And this was despite truly awful three-point shooting from Damian Lillard (1/8) and Evan Turner (1/5). If either of those two players had shot even a little better from three, the Blazers’ margin of victory would have been bigger.

During their March 27 victory over New Orleans, the Blazers didn’t shoot all that well from three (31.3 percent), and it was Al-Farouq Aminu’s turn to be awful; he shot just 2/10 from downtown. CJ McCollum (1/6) didn’t shoot much better from distance. But the Pelicans were worse: They shot just 4/24 (16.7 percent) from three.

On Dec. 2, the Pelicans beat the Blazers in Portland while shooting 48.4 percent from three. The Blazers shot just 11/35 (31.4 percent) in that loss.

And, finally, the Blazers lost in New Orleans on Jan. 12. In that game, the Pelicans out-shot Portland from three 36.8 percent to 28.6 percent.

Seems clear: The Blazers need to make their threes — or at least prevent the Pelicans from making theirs — in order to take the series.

2. Crash the Boards

Outrebounding an opponent is not necessarily a guarantee of success. For example, one team may beat another despite being outrebounded because the opponent has a poor shooting night, thus enabling them to grab more rebounds from all those misses.

But in the Blazers-Pelicans season series, rebounding appears to have been key. In their two victories against New Orleans, the Blazers either grabbed more total rebounds or more offensive rebounds. (In that second victory, the Pelicans were without DeMarcus Cousins, who was lost for the season in late January after rupturing his left Achilles tendon.)

In both of their losses to New Orleans this season, the Blazers had fewer total rebounds than the Pelicans.

Crash the boards, fellas!

3. Contain Anthony Davis

The third and final key to Blazers success in this series is also the most obvious: Keep Anthony Davis away from the ball, and keep the ball away from Anthony Davis.

Davis was hurt and only played five minutes against Portland on Oct. 24 (a Blazers victory). In the Blazers’ win on March 27, Davis scored 36 points — but by that point, he was without Cousins. And without Davis, Cousins scored 38 points in the Pelicans’ win on Dec. 27. Davis and Cousins combined for 60 points and 28 rebounds in NOP’s win on Jan. 12.

Next: Trail Blazers must carry close-out mentality into playoffs

The Pelicans won 10 straight games not long after losing Cousins for the season. That’s because Davis is a premier talent. Keeping him away from the basket is just about impossible, but if the Blazers can limit his touches, they’ll have a good chance to put the Pelicans away sooner rather than later — especially since Cousins isn’t there to pick up the slack.

A lot can happen in a playoff series, but if the Blazers can hit their threes, crash the boards and limit Davis to a relatively pedestrian output, then Portland will be well on its way to winning the series and looking ahead to the second round.