All Western Conference teams still vying for a playoff spot have one game remaining. The NBA sent out to spreadsheets detailing seeding based on the result of all final matchups.
Because of its current four-game losing streak, the Portland Trail Blazers no longer hold possession of the Western Conference’s three seed. The Utah Jazz claimed the position, destroying a Golden State Warriors team only missing Stephen Curry Tuesday night.
Portland’s potential seeding
NBA Twitter scrambled to produce every possible scenario for playoff seeding in the West. Fortunately, the NBA sent out a color-coded spreadsheet doing exactly such.
The NBA has updated/corrected the playoff scenarios table they sent over this morning. There are now more scenarios in which the @TrailBlazers end up as the 3 seed, fewer scenarios in which they're the 4 seed, same number of 5 seed scenarios pic.twitter.com/GG6i6vcQ0D
— Casey Holdahl (@CHold) April 10, 2018
As Casey Holdahl mentions, Portland can either end third, fourth or fifth. However, there’s only one way the team loses home court advantage in its final game.
But first, we can update this spreadsheet because of Utah’s win over Golden State.
Updated first round playoff scenarios after Utah's victory versus Golden State pic.twitter.com/DmVnUTvvzx
— Portland Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) April 11, 2018
Two other in-conference games must go a certain way in addition to Utah winning at Portland tonight in order for the Blazers to finish at the five seed.
While San Antonio can certainly win its game, the tanking Memphis Grizzlies have to defeat the OKC Thunder. The Thunder can sneak into the fourth seed with a win (and other teams’ losses), so they won’t play soft. Also, Russell Westbrook wants to end his season averaging a triple-double; he’ll play at least 30 minutes and contribute to the hopeful-blowout.
Portland’s potential opponents
Rip City takes a collective sigh of relief after finding out the team avoids Utah in the first round no matter what. The Jazz have won six straight, including a 40-point beatdown of the defending champs on Tuesday.
3rd seed
Assuming Portland reclaims the third seed, its potential opponents are:
- Denver Nuggets (2/8 of scenarios).
- San Antonio Spurs (3/8 scenarios).
- New Orleans Pelicans (2/8 scenarios).
- Minnesota Timberwolves (1/8 scenarios).
Eliminating any seeding outcome reliant on Memphis winning, the potential opponents become:
- New Orleans Pelicans (2/4).
- San Antonio Spurs (2/4).
No one wants to play the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs, Kawhi Leonard or not. The Blazers dropped two of the three matchups this season and would definitely need to rediscover its shooting against the tough San Antonio defense.
Facing New Orleans is a better result. Without DeMarcus Cousins, Portland can focus its defense entirely on Anthony Davis. Still, playoff Rajon Rondo is always a threat.
Related Story: Who should the Blazers want in the first round?
A win in the first round as the three seed likely means the Golden State Warriors next. As of right now, the Warriors appear to be a more favorable matchup than Houston. The Blazers won the season series versus Golden State, plus the defending champs are struggling with Curry sidelined.
4th seed
Possible opponents as the fourth seed include:
- New Orleans Pelicans (4/6 scenarios).
- San Antonio Spurs (2/6 scenarios.
All in all, the difference between being the third and fourth seed is who Portland would play in the second round (assuming OKC beats Memphis and NOP/SAS are the only outcomes). While Portland always plays Houston tough, James Harden ends up too much for the Blazers’ defense down the stretch, resulting in a tight loss.
5th seed
In the one way this happens, Portland would face the San Antonio Spurs first round. Same matchup as being the third or fourth seed, but this time without home court advantage. Against a team coached by Gregg Popovich, any leg-up should be taken immediately.
Next: Blazers not worried about struggling offense
Despite an embarrassing losing streak to close the season, Portland can still snag home court advantage for the first round. A win tonight over Utah secures the third seed, but an OKC win could also do the trick.
Either way, the Blazers likely face either New Orleans or San Antonio. Both are better outcomes than the Jazz, but are no easy task. Playing at the Moda Center should help fuel Portland to a first round victory, moving them on to either Golden State or Houston.