The Blazers are third in the Western Conference right now, but a few losses can move them out the playoffs.
Four games separate third place and no playoffs, which is better than before! But its still not ideal for the Blazers, who currently sit alone at third.
The teams battling for six available playoff spots have two goals:
- Don’t be the two dreaded teams that finish ninth and tenth and watch the playoffs from home.
- Avoid the Rockets and Warriors first round (AKA don’t be the seventh or eighth seed).
The Blazers obviously fit this bill. Last year, Portland excitingly squeaked into the playoffs only to lose in four games to the eventual champions.
Dodging both Houston and Golden State enables more realistic hope of advancing past the first round. That’s not enough if the Blazers want to see the second round, though.
Rip City wants, actually NEEDS, homecourt advantage in the opening series.
On the road, the Blazers are 18-15, compared to 21-11 at home. Additionally, the team has won 13 of its last 14 games at the Moda Center. Us fans didn’t believe it at the start of the season, but Portland does in fact play better in front of its home crowd.
So which team is the biggest threat to a third or fourth place finish?
Let’s eliminate a few teams that are in the race but likely won’t finish top-four.
- Los Angeles Clippers: Without Blake Griffin, the inexperienced Clippers won’t outplay every team above them in the standings by four games or more.
- Utah Jazz: The Jazz currently sit 3.5 games back on the fourth-place Pelicans. The big 11-game win streak put Utah back in the race, but this recent form is due to fade eventually.
- New Orleans Pelicans: This team is on fire. However, the Pelicans rely on one player since DeMarcus Cousins went down: Anthony Davis. He’s playing out of his mind, but doesn’t have the best track record in terms of injuries. In fact, Davis left yesterday’s game versus Sacramento after tweaking his ankle. He goes down and so does Now Orleans’ season.
- Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets have yet to string together a win streak longer than four games. Even with Paul Millsap back, Denver doesn’t have the consistency to make up at least 3.5 games on the top teams.
This leaves Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Minnesota as the biggest threats to Portland’s dream of homecourt advantage
But the Blazers have a (small) leg up on each opponent.
- Oklahoma City Thunder: Portland has won all three meetings between the two teams so far this season. While one game remains, the Blazers already secured the playoff tiebreaker. Also, OKC is the only potential playoff team out West with a negative net rating since the All-Star break.
- San Antonio Spurs: It all comes down to Kawhi Leonard‘s return. The Blazers certainly stand a chance against a Leonard-less Spurs team (the season series is 1-1). If he does comeback though, San Antonio likely shoots up the rankings. Fortunately for Portland, if Leonard plays this season, he’s expected to do so once playoffs begin.
- Minnesota Timberwolves: In two of the four matchups with Portland this season, Jimmy Butler sat out injured – the Blazers won both of those games. Butler underwent surgery to repair the meniscus in his right knee and shouldn’t return until at least playoffs. In the mean time, Minnesota will continue to slide down the rankings and not be as competitive for Portland
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The Blazers current run won’t last forever, as much as we wish it would. (Portland hosts Golden State tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. PT, sheesh.)
Still, consistent play through the remainder of the season can earn the Blazers homecourt advantage for playoffs. Other teams (we’re looking at you New Orleans) losing certainly helps this pursuit.
But in the end, making the playoffs and avoiding the Rockets and Warriors is a step in the right direction. This is the year we compete past the first round of postseason.