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Which Blazers player will pick up the slack when Lillard cools off?

By Matt George Moore

PORTLAND, OR - MARCH 6: Damian Lillard
PORTLAND, OR - MARCH 6: Damian Lillard /
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Happy Hump Day, Rip City! You’ve made it through half a typical workweek. And the Trail Blazers keep winning. Happy days are here again! But will they stay?

The law of averages is a monster. It is ruthless and unavoidable. It’s heavy-handed. It hits hard, affecting great players and benchwarmers alike. So what will the Trail Blazers do when it comes looking for the team’s best player?

Damian Lillard has been on a tear lately. Over the last 10 games, during which the Blazers have gone 9-1, he’s averaging an astonishing 35.4 points per game, highest in the league in that span. He’s shooting 48.9 percent from the field in those 10 games, including a stellar 43 percent from three. And he’s led the Blazers to a 39-26 record and third place in the Western Conference.

On Tuesday against the New York Knicks, Lillard again made it look easy, shooting a ridiculous 8-of-11 from three and scoring 37 points. The win was the Blazers’ eighth in a row.

Lillard and the Blazers have been on an amazing run. But as amazing as it has been, it might not be amazing enough, amazingly. Not in the Western Conference, anyway.

Law of Averages

What will happen to the Trail Blazers when Lillard’s shots stop hitting nothing but the bottom of the net, as they surely will? The law of averages demands it.

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Lillard is a career 37.1 percent three-point shooter, and he’s never shot better than 39.4 percent for a season, which he did in 2013-2014. This season, he’s shooting 37.8 percent from three.

At some point, his three-point shots are going to stop falling; it happens to the best of the best. The shots that he’s making now will start rattling in and out, or around and out, or around and around and out, or all kinds of ways and out. Twenty-five times this season, Lillard has shot less than 29 percent from three. He’s gone 1-for-8, 2-for-11, 4-for-15 …

You get the picture.

Picking Up The Slack

Great players like Lillard rarely struggle for long. When the inevitable bad shooting game arrives, it won’t be because Lillard is taking bad shots; it will be because good shots, shots that he might typically make, just aren’t falling anymore. It’s that darn law of averages.

Lillard is in a zone. Anybody who has ever played basketball knows what that’s like, either because they’ve experienced it themselves or because they’ve play alongside someone who has.

And when it happens, sometimes all you can do is watch in wonder.

Trail Blazers

The question for the Trail Blazers is: What will the rest of the team do to pick up their leader when he’s having an off-shooting night?

Typically, the Blazers rely on the sweet-shooting CJ McCollum to pick up the slack. He’s shooting 42 percent from three, just a smidge less than his career average. And he’s certainly capable of entering the zone, just like Dame.

But who else?

Al-Farouq Aminu can certainly go on a tear. And this season’s 39.7 percent from beyond the arc is the best of his career. (Aminu’s career average from three is 33.9 percent.)

What about Shabazz Napier? He’s also shooting at a career-best clip from three (38.7 percent).

Final Stretch and the Playoffs

If the Blazers continue to play strong defense, they can weather the storm of an occasional cold-shooting night from Lillard or McCollum and reach the playoffs on a roll. But I think they’re going to need more from bench players, such as Pat Connaughton and rookie Zach Collins, both of whom can shoot from deep. (As can Maurice Harkless, who remains sidelined with a patellar tendon strain.)

Friday night’s game against the Golden State Warrior will give Rip City a better idea of just how good the Blazers are right now. It’s certainly possible that Lillard’s hot shooting continues Friday and into the foreseeable future.

Next: Blazers sign Georgios Papagiannis to 10-day contract

But Lillard’s got to come back down to Earth at some point, doesn’t he? Unless we’re witnessing the greatest shooting display in NBA history, the ol’ law of averages says he’s overdue for a statistical correction.

And when that happens, the Blazers and their fans better hope that other players step up and start draining bombs from long distance.

Otherwise, this wild, entertaining and intoxicating ride into the upper stratosphere of the Western Conference is gonna end with a thud. Like a basketball that bricks off the iron.