Who would win in a 1-on-1 between Damian Lillard and Brandon Roy?
By Dayton Brown
The two all-time Blazer greats never played together, let alone against one another. What would happen if they did?
The 2018 NBA All-Star Weekend has come and gone. Like always, it was filled with many spectacles the NBA world was lucky enough to witness.
Just by playing hard, the All-Stars made Sunday’s game one of the best exhibitions seen in a long time. Donovan Mitchell may also have helped rebirth the Dunk Contest, which had been in purgatory for the last half decade. And, even though Portland’s own CJ McCollum should have been participating, Devin Booker set the record for most points in one round during the 3-Point Competition.
The big feature for Portland in All-Star Weekend came from Damian Lillard representing Team Stephen as a reserve. Lillard dropped 21 points on 9/14 shooting (3/8 from three) with 3 rebounds and 2 assists in 21 minutes.
Unfortunately, Lillard didn’t play in crunch time when the team needed a score the most. Nonetheless, getting to watch Lillard not get snubbed from the game, play often, and lead the team in scoring was an absolute treat.
Blazers All-Stars
Lillard joins a long list of Blazer All-Stars. He’s just the third All-Star for Portland in the last 17 years, though. Himself, Lamarcus Aldridge, and Brandon Roy are the three Blazer All-Stars in that span.
Both Lillard and Roy have represented the Blazers three different times at the All-Star Game, with Aldridge making four appearances as a member of Portland (two with San Antonio).
For today, let’s focus on Roy and Lillard. Both are well-loved by Rip City through and through. Due to Aldridge’s awkward departure from the team, he is not heralded nearly as much as the other two. Many argue Lillard and Roy to be in the “Top-5 All-Time Blazers” conversation. Unfortunately for us, they never played as teammates and neither faced each other in any game.
What would happen if they played each other one-on-one? It most likely will never happen in real life, so this is all theoretical. Both are beloved by Rip City, and have left their mark on the franchise. Lillard is fifth in team history in total points, while Roy would have broken many team records had he stayed healthy and played a full career.
Let’s pit them against one another on the blacktop.
Tale of the tape: Statistics
Damian Lillard:
Point guard, 6’ 3”, 195 pounds, 6th overall pick of 2012 Draft. Rookie of the Year (2013), 3x NBA All-Star, 2x All-NBA team selection.
Career per-game averages: 36.4 minutes, 22.8 points, 6.2 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 43% from the field, 37% from 3-point range, one steal and three turnovers. Usage rate is 27.9% with a 5.0 Offensive Box Plus/Minus (OBPM) and a -1.6 Defensive Box Plus/Minus (DBPM).
Brandon Roy:
Shooting guard, 6’ 6”, 215 pounds, 6th overall pick of 2006 Draft. Rookie of the Year (2007), 3x NBA All-Star, 2x All-NBA team selection.
Career per-game averages (with Portland): 35.6 minutes, 19 points, 4.7 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 46% from the field, 35% from 3-point range, one steal and two turnovers. Usage rate was 25.4% with a 3.8 OBPM and a -0.5 DBPM.
Tale of the tape: Eye Test
As you can tell, the two had very similar careers. Both were drafted sixth overall in their respective drafts and proceeded to win Rookie of the Year. Damian Lillard and Brandon Roy also have the same amount of All-Star nods and All-NBA team selections. Plus, they both hit nearly identical game-winning shots to defeat the Houston Rockets in epic fashion.
On the court, Lillard receives more opportunities than Roy ever did. Lillard’s usage rating is much higher than Roy’s, and is in fact the franchise record. Lillard also holds the team record for most 3-pointers attempted and made, helping bring high-volume scoring. However, Roy was much more efficient as a ball-handler and shooter.
Of course, had Roy handled the ball as much as Lillard does, the number comparison would be much more even. Watch film on Roy, though, and you will see how he was able to take care of the ball often and get to the hoop in many different ways.
Also, his three-inch and 20-pound advantages come in handy during the matchup. Roy will be able to bully his way into the post, while Lillard will play more around the perimeter.
Defensively, Roy has the length and better instincts to potentially outplay Lillard on that end.
Play-by-play prediction
Old-school format for this matchup. The game is played with ones and twos to 11 – winner’s ball until that player reaches five points. Call your own fouls, as both men are very trustworthy. Opening possession is determined with a “do-or-die” 2-point attempt by Roy, since he is the elder.
Even though he was a below-average shooter from behind the arc during his career, Roy swishes the shot. He’s unguarded; most NBA players make that shot nine times out of ten.
Starting with the ball, Roy dribbles to size up Lillard. He’s able to maneuver his way into the post, using all of his three-inch, 20-pound advantage. Roy turns around and banks in a 10-foot fadeaway. He leads 1-0.
Brandon Roy gets the ball back, and gives a little pump fake right away. Lillard doesn’t bite, but Roy’s quickness and length helps him secure a nice drive to the basket. His contested layup is good, and Roy leads 2-0.
Getting the ball back again, Roy attempts to go into the post for a second time. His playful turnaround jumper is off, and Lillard secured the rebound. He immediately gets to behind the 2-point line and sinks a shot before Roy gets his hand up. It’s 2-2, just like that.
Checking the ball with Roy, Damian Lillard gives him a pump fake. Roy bites a bit, but moves closer more than anything. This give Lillard a step in his favor. He bursts to the basket and barely gets the acrobatic finish to go through. 3-2, Lillard.
Remainder of Game
It’s a lot of back and forth like this, as Roy continues to bully his way to the basket, and Lillard attempts several 2-point shots and drive when he has the step.
It’s now 9-9, Roy has the ball. We are coming off a Lillard sideways floater, a la his game winner in Denver in 2016.
Roy immediately goes to drive, and Lillard is there to stay in front. Neither player has fouled yet this game, as discipline is in their blood.
Roy is able to hop step is way to just five feet away from the hoop. He fades away and lightly swishes a jumper to pull ahead by one. Roy now needs just one field goal from anywhere to win.
Lillard, who has the ball, just needs a 2.
Both men are dripping sweat and Roy bounces the ball to Lillard. The check is complete, but Lillard stays still for a few seconds. He’s eyeing Roy, as Roy eyes him back.
One dribble by Lillard. Two. Three. He begins to move to his right. A little shoulder shake and quick step forward forces Roy to retreat and plan ahead. The space created is just enough for Lillard to step back behind the arc. As Roy lunges to contest, Lillard’s quick release has already gotten the ball off. You know what happens next.
11-10 is the final score in this epic showdown.
Next: Damian Lillard interviews with ESPN's Rachel Nichols
The winner: Damian Lillard
It’s the reason teams like the Golden State Warriors have become so dominant: three points are greater than two. In this case, two was greater than one, as Lillard’s superb attack from outside would garner him more points per possession and better leverage for dribble penetration.
The telling factor was this stat: Lillard is the ONLY player in NBA history to hit 150 or more 3-pointers in each of his first four seasons in the league.
Ultimately, I see Lillard winning. What about yourself? Who you got, Rip City?