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Portland Trail Blazers had money in the wrong offseason

By Nate Mann

OAKLAND, CA - MAY 3: Portland Trail Blazers owner Paul Allen talks with general manager Neil Olshey before the game between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Golden State Warriors in Game Two of the Western Conference Semifinals during the 2016 NBA Playoffs on May 3, 2016 at ORACLE Arena in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)
OAKLAND, CA - MAY 3: Portland Trail Blazers owner Paul Allen talks with general manager Neil Olshey before the game between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Golden State Warriors in Game Two of the Western Conference Semifinals during the 2016 NBA Playoffs on May 3, 2016 at ORACLE Arena in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The deadline has passed and the Blazers stood pat with its current roster despite making one minor trade.

Unlike last year, the Portland Trail Blazers made no significant moves before the trade deadline.

Only rumors involving DeAndre Jordan had any substance for Portland, but the fans certainly suggested their fair trade of potential deadline deals.

However, none came to fruition. Only Noah Vonleh was swapped (plus our old pal Cash Considerations) for Milocan Rakovic of the Chicago Bulls.

Locked up overpaying second-tier players and rejecting offers for Damian Lillard or CJ McCollum, there was little hope the Blazers would complete a season-fixing trade.

Summer 2016 to blame

Staying mediocre boils down to the miserable summer of 2016.

As a reminder, Portland overpaid Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe, Meyers Leonard and Maurice Harkless.

Between the four, the Blazers spent $228 million spanning the course of four years. This is a cumulative $57 million each season, about half of team’s available cap space. And this is before including Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum’s contracts, the franchise centerpieces.

Luckily, the Blazers offloaded some of that salary by trading Allen Crabbe to Brooklyn for nothing in return. Unluckily, Crabbe was probably the best of the four in terms of satisfying team needs (three-point shooting).

While we all blame Neil Olshey for the ludicrous contracts handed out in 2016, perhaps more was at play.

Factors at play in Summer 2016 meltdown

ESPN recently published an article about the fluctuating state of the NBA’s free agency market.

Of course, it’s introduced by Leonard’s contract and details all of Portland’s awful salaries. They become the go-to example of an interesting idea brought up by authors Brian Windhorst and Bobby Marks.

Perhaps Neil Olshey’s overpayments were the result of an inflated market.

So few teams have cap space in upcoming seasons because competition for free agents cost way too much in summer 2016. The Blazers happened to have all the money in the wrong offseason.

But unfortunately for Olshey, this excuse only works for one of his signings (if that).

Meyers Leonard and Maurice Harkless

Neither of these guys had put together a super successful season before 2016. They were solid reserves with specific abilities (Leonard – three-point shooting, Harkless – defense). Yet Olshey threw four-year, $40 million contracts at both of them.

There’s two reasons why Windhorst and Marks’ league-wide theory doesn’t apply to Olshey.

  1. Chances are neither Leonard or Harkless started negotiations by asking for $10 million per year. Even if they did, Olshey could’ve let them walk and found other available reserves for cheap.
  2. There likely wasn’t competition to sign either player from the rest of the league. If there was, it certainly didn’t cause a bidding war that reached $10 million annually.

Evan Turner

The Blazers signed Evan Turner after a semi-successful campaign with the Boston Celtics.

Like with Leonard and Harkless, the inflated market didn’t push Olshey into overpaying ET.

The Blazers needed a wing shooter; retaining Allen Crabbe solved this problem. More important was snagging a big man to complement or improve upon Mason Plumlee (at the time).

Instead, Portland went out and signed Turner, a ball-dominant guard with limited floor spacing abilities. His spot in the rotation stepped on Crabbe’s toes and eventually got the tenured Blazer traded.

Again, Olshey felt no pressure to sign ET – he wasn’t the missing piece to suddenly make the Blazers championship contenders.

Two more things: First, Turner likely didn’t ask for $18 million per year even with the inflation. Second, I highly doubt any team offered a similar total for Turner to encourage Olshey to up his salary.

So far, Olshey is 0/3 on getting bailed out by Windhorst and Marks’ theory that explains the other major contracts of summer 2016.

Allen Crabbe

Allen Crabbe may be the only justified summer 2016 signing.

As a reminder, the Blazers matched a four-year, $75 million offer sheet from the Brooklyn Nets (Crabbe was a restricted free agent).

Because of the inflated free agent market, rebuilding Brooklyn felt no pressure offering Crabbe a major contract.

In fact, they did so to other players as well, like offering Otto Porter Jr. four-years, $106.5 million.

Brooklyn’s offer pushed the price up for Crabbe and Olshey decided to match even though Portland had just acquired Evan Turner.

Next: Blazers take Hornets to OT, win 109-103

All in all, Brian Windhorst and Bobby Marks thoroughly explain how the summer of 2016 hurt the futures of several teams, Trail Blazers included.

While the franchise had money in the wrong offseason, Neil Olshey can still be blamed for the ridiculous contracts of Leonard, Harkless, Crabbe and Turner.