Jusuf Nurkic, Trail Blazers and the burden of expectations

The future looks bright for Portland big man Jusuf Nurkic. But can he shoulder the weight of a fan base hoping for a savior? And should he even have to?

Has Jusuf Nurkic of the Portland Trail Blazers played up to expectations? It’s a question that’s been batted around Rip City like a loose ball. So far, the answer is no.

But the question itself might be unfair.

Perhaps it’s more worthwhile to ask: Whose expectations are we talking about here? Nurk’s or Rip City’s? And how realistic are these expectations?

The key is to find the right metrics against which to measure both Nurkic’s progress and his promise. His promise is undeniable. His progress, less so.

As for the weighty expectations of a championship-starved fan base, Nurkic is not the answer. There is no single answer. Basketball is a team game, and Nurk is just one player – not some sort of hero come to rescue us from a 40-year championship drought.

Where to Set the Bar?

Nurkic has positioned a high bar for himself and his teammates and he hasn’t been shy about drawing attention to it. During Media Day in September, he said the Blazers could be the new “Bad Boys,” like the Detroit Pistons of old. And last month, he told Sports Illustrated’s Ben Golliver, “If you ask me, no center in the league is better than me.”

Nurk’s confidence is appealing, but only when he backs it up with his play.

And, well, so far, so … meh.

Nurkic is averaging 15.1 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. Not bad. Not great. But that stat line hides just how inconsistent Nurkic has been. His inability to string together multiple good performances has much to do with the team’s inability to do the same.

The Weight of History

A full accounting of Blazers’ basketball – the fans’ expectations of future wins and/or woes – requires at least a glimpse into the past. In Portland, that means acknowledging the history of big names/big injuries: Bill Walton. Sam Bowie. Greg Oden. Brandon Roy. (Portland even penciled in Nurkic’s name at the end of that list, as we’ll see in a moment.)

Greg Oden, especially, was seen as the answer to our basketball prayers – the right big man at the right time. We know how that turned out.

When Nurkic was traded to Portland and the team started winning, it seemed another potential savior had appeared.

‘Nurkic Fever’ takes hold

Nurkic arrived in Portland from Denver last February with a splash.

Actually, it was much more than a splash. It felt like a cannonball.

The seven-foot Bosnian injected life into a lackluster Blazers season that was sputtering toward the finish line. With Nurkic, the defense tightened up, the offense opened up, and the Blazers were rejuvenated, going 14-6 with him in the lineup.

Rip City rejoiced, and “Nurkic Fever” was born.

One of the biggest victories came in March against the Nuggets. Nurkic scored 33 points (a career high) and snagged 16 rebounds against his former team. The Rip City crowd chanted his name. The victory, which all but cemented a playoff spot for the Blazers, sent Nurk’s former team packing. (He puckishly wished them “a happy summer.”)

But then things got thorny in the Rose City, as they tend to do, and that old injury demon reared its ugly head. Soon after that game versus the Nuggets, Nurkic was diagnosed with a leg fracture and missed the final seven games of the season and most of the playoffs.

Curb your Enthusiasm

Whatever expectations Nurkic has for himself – and they’re sky high – they almost certainly pale in comparison to what some Portlanders expect from him: a championship to erase years of frustrating memories.

But Nurkic, a valuable contributor who can and will occasionally dominate, is not the answer to Portland’s prayers. At least not by himself.

Alongside Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, however? Maybe. Just maybe.

Still, Nurkic, who insists he wants to stay in Portland beyond this contract year, remains a work in progress. He’s young (as I often remind myself) and he has a big upside. But he has work to do.

At minimum, he needs to play better in the post, when finishing at the rim and on the (rare) fast break. He needs to develop a consistent hook shot. And he needs to make at least 70% of his free throw attempts.

If he can do these things, he – and by extension, the Blazers – will be tough to handle.

The future is close at hand

Nurkic is definitely the kind of player Portlanders love to love. He sticks up for his teammates. He knows a mentor when he sees one. And he seems willing to work. (During the summer he put himself through a rigorous off-season training program.)

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He also seems willing to own up to poor performances. After Saturday’s loss to the New Orleans Pelicans, Nurkic said,

"“Maybe we think we’re good enough to kind of mess around. And then life comes hard at you, when you figure out you’re not that good and you can’t turn it on anytime you want. You need to play 48 minutes to win the game.”"

Blazers fans would certainly agree.

For this team to become the new “Bad Boys,” the Beast must back up his bulletin-board boasts by chewing up a ton of productive minutes.

And, as Rip City knows all too well, he’s gotta stay healthy.