Damian Lillard in the MVP discussion

Damian Lillard is making a case for mention in the MVP discussion this year.

Damian Lillard is playing the most minutes per game since his rookie season. With more minutes comes more production, especially for the Blazer point guard.

Offense

Points

Lillard is on pace to score roughly 26 points per game, a mark he’s never reached in five seasons with Portland. Interestingly, he currently shoots a career-low 42% from the field and 33% from three.

A few games are responsible for the lower percentages: he shot a combined 11/46 across the Denver, Memphis and New Orleans games. Cleaning up these outliers improves Dame’s success from the field and therefore his point totals. It’s not unreasonable to believe his average jumps to 27 or 28 points come playoff time.

Assists

In line with previous seasons, Lillard tallies six assists per contest. With the return of Al-Farouq Aminu, plus Jusuf Nurkic hitting stride offensively, he can eclipse the seven-assist milestone for the first time in his career.

Comparing the numbers of Portland’s Big Three in wins versus losses, I noted that Lillard actually scores less in victories and instead assists more. On nights when his shot isn’t falling, Dame might transition to a pass-first guard and only take high percentage looks. This not only bumps his assist numbers, but also maintains a solid scoring-output while boosting percentages.

Defense

It’s hard to pinpoint who is behind Portland’s defensive turn-around. Evan Turner, Noah Vonleh and Jusuf Nurkic certainly impress on that end, but it is Lillard who has demonstrated major improvement.

For Blazer fans who have seen Dame in the past: it was painful to watch him navigate screens. The opposing center became an unavoidable wall and his assignment waltzed into the paint.

Using the eye test, Lillard seems to work through screens smarter now, stepping over on proficient shooters and under on interior threats.

Past the eye test, Damian Lillard’s defensive box plus/minus is even, an achievement he’s only ever reached once (2014-2015). A consequential career-best plus/minus rating of 6.4 illustrates his contributions on both ends of the floor.

Basically, working harder on defense is paying off for Dame and also not hurting his offensive production.

MVP odds

Sports Illustrated listed Lillard with 75/1 odds of winning MVP before the season started. Their reasoning:

"“Damian Lillard has been consistently great for a solid three years now, and at 27 years old, he’s smack in the middle of his prime. He’s on a playoff team with only moderate expectations and real potential to surprise people in the West. He hits big shots as a rule, and he’s the sort of magnetic personality who can build a ton of momentum if things break right along the way.”"

NBA.com recently updated their MVP rankings to rank Dame tenth.

Other early season award predictions have him fairly low. James Harden tops the list for MVP nearly everywhere, and his play supports the movement.

MVP reality

Barring anything major, Damian Lillard won’t win MVP.

Based on last season, the award goes to the player producing the most stats. Their team’s performance is less important, hence why Russell Westbrook took home the prize and Harden didn’t.

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Lillard’s best case for MVP comes from Portland’s season. If they emerge as a top-four seed in the competitive Western Conference, he’ll get more look in the discussion. But because numbers are so valued, someone like Harden or Giannis Antetokounmpo will win (yes, Harden checks both boxes – great team and great stats).

But this won’t stop the Moda Center from roaring with MVP chants when Lillard Time rolls around. Not winning the award doesn’t take anything away from his great season, which has been a major factor in Portland’s strong start.