The 2017-2018 Blazers squad is supposed to have more talent on both ends of the floor. And this was supposed to be a year of improvement and building on a solid foundation.
The Blazers added a young and talented center at the end of last season in Jusuf Nurkic. Role players like Evan Turner and Al-Farouq Aminu seem more locked in.
While Portland has already had a few injuries, they boast a stable of mostly healthy bigs. Center Meyers Leonard is set for an imminent return, and Aminu isn’t not far behind.
Why, then, do the Blazers sit at 6-6 after the first 12 games of the season? One game behind last year’s record (7-5) doesn’t seem so hot, considering preseason reports that this year would bring more success.
A rough start isn’t helping the Blazers
It’s worrisome that the Blazers are a .500 team despite the second-softest schedule so far, according to ESPN. In a season with a easier start, it will inevitably be a rockier finish.
Last year, the soft end of the season was critical in gaining a foothold to the post-season. If this year brings a rough finish, AND the Blazers haven’t come out ahead on the “easy start,” should Blazers fans expect to make the postseason at all? If not, this is a far cry from climbing beyond the 8th seed and avoiding another year of being a first-round sacrifice to the Warriors.
Of Portland’s first 12 games, nine have been decided by 10 points or less. The Blazers have come out ahead in only four of those games.
If we shrink the margin to five points or less, the Blazers are 2-4. For a team looking to celebrate “Lillard Time,” they hardly have a solid reputation in the clutch in this early campaign.
The root of the problem…
Maybe the concept of “Lillard Time” is part of the issue here. Maybe Blazer fans have become so enamored with Dame‘s ability to hit big shots that they’re beginning to let confirmation bias skew their perspective on his actual production in these moments.
One need not search far for examples.
Any fan watching games this year has seen the Blazers secure a critical offensive rebound, forcing a reset of the shot clock and earning an extra possession… only to pass the ball to Dame, who hoists an open, yet inefficient shot from deep outside the arc just seconds in to this new, fresh shot clock.
It’s not that Lillard can’t make those shots. He definitely can. It’s that he shouldn’t HAVE to. And he shouldn’t be looking for those shots as a first option. Especially not when he has time (and teammates) that could produce something more efficient and reliable.
Dame isn’t the only one.
Think about every time that you, as a fan, have screamed at Meyers Leonard for doing nothing but taking threes. It’s not that Meyer’s CAN’T make a three, right? It’s that, as an athletic young 7-footer, he should play smarter basketball and use the tools available to him. You can’t teach size, and he’s got size. He also has a soft touch, and he can work to get more efficient shots, becoming more of a threat anywhere on the court. Ironically, this would in turn make him a greater threat from outside as well. (Insert frog and coffee emoji here).
What Lillard is doing is not all that different. We’ve all seen him make some amazing shots. We KNOW he can make amazing shots. But if he ignores teammates and foregoes playmaking, he’s selling his abilities (and those of his teammates) short.
Like Meyers’ three-point shot, Dame’s shoot-from-anywhere ability should be a tool in his toolbox, not necessarily his go-to move. With all due respect to the Letter O, no one but Steph Curry can claim the efficiency needed for that.
To illustrate what a hero ball mentality can do across a season, let’s look at some advanced stats; Lillard’s EFG% (Effective Field Goal Percentage) of 46.9% this season would be the lowest of his career. This season’s TS% (True Shooting Percentage) of 56.2 would be his 2nd lowest (he’s had 2 seasons where he only reached 56.0%). Last year was his career-best in both categories, showing that this trend is new and something the Blazers need to be aware of.
Is it contagious?
Worse than simply having a star player being reckless with possessions, it might not be only Damian Lillard’s problem. CJ McCollum has shown signs in this early season that he, too, may be hunting for his own glory in clutch time. He would be better-served looking for his teammates and the easiest, most efficient basket.
Of Portland’s six losses so far this season, four have been lost by five points or less. McCollum has been in control of the ball in the final seconds in all four of those games.
When hosting Brooklyn on Friday, CJ brought the Blazers to within a point on a driving layup, at 97-98 with 33 seconds left. Unfortunately, the Blazers couldn’t close it out, and CJ is not to blame for a lack of paint defense.
Likewise, when Portland hosted the LA Clippers, McCollum missed a critical late-game free throw that allowed Blake Griffin an opportunity for a game winner. Once again, however, CJ is not to blame for Dame or Aminu’s defensive mistakes while guarding Griffin on the final possession.
In the other two close losses this season (at Milwaukee and hosting Memphis), McCollum may be more at fault. Rather than closing out each game efficiently, he instead got caught while looking for his own glory. Giannis Antetokounmpo (fouled CJ and at the same time) stole the ball when CJ looked for a long jumper. This was while several teammates seemed relatively open and ready for an easy opportunity.
Similarly, when Memphis came to visit, it was CJ attempting a long, contested jumper to end the game. He could have looked to pass to an open big or a cutting wing for an easy, efficient layup.
Keyword: Versatility
Like Lillard’s early shotclock three-point attempts, or the 7’1″ Meyers taking ONLY three-point attempts, McCollum’s mid-range prowess is an incredible skill for him to have ready in these situations.
Next: Denver Nuggets seek revenge against Portland Trail Blazers
But when a defense with a reputation like Memphis’ is expecting your shot, and is perhaps loaded up on you to make that shot more difficult… maybe it’s time to let that incredible skill be one tool in the toolbox.
You don’t always need a hammer to get the job done.
And you don’t always need a star player to make a highlight shot just because they can.