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Early Prediction on Trail Blazers’ Over/Under Win Total

By McLayne Bertsch

May 9, 2016; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Maurice Harkless (4) congratulates guard Damian Lillard (0) after making a basket over Golden State Warriors in game four of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports
May 9, 2016; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Maurice Harkless (4) congratulates guard Damian Lillard (0) after making a basket over Golden State Warriors in game four of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports /
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Trail Blazers were slighted by Vegas before last season – what will they set the over/under wins at this year?

Much was made about the Trail Blazers paltry Vegas odds for a win total last season. According to the betting odds, the Trail Blazers were supposed to be the worst team in the Western Conference last year. Even the Lakers were predicted to win more games. Portland passed the over/under of 27.5 wins two full months before the end of the season.

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Most NBA teams are finished with their offseason acquisitions at this point, as there are only a few free agents that could even crack a rotation still on the market. Even though the odds for win totals might not come out for another month or two, let’s predict what the Trail Blazers’ line will be.

Using last season’s 44 wins as a base; did the Trail Blazers improve this offseason? You would think so.

General Manager Neil Olshey brought the band back together. The Trail Blazers were such a young team last season – with the average age around 25 years. Every key player was brought back this year, and paid handsomely. (Sorry Gerald Henderson – you were too old to stay) The oldest player on the roster is new signee Evan Turner, who is not yet 28. The chemistry, natural progression and additions of Turner + Festus Ezeli should be worth a few wins.

Now Portland Trail Blazers guard Evan Turner (11) called out a play against the Miami Heat during the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
Now Portland Trail Blazers guard Evan Turner (11) called out a play against the Miami Heat during the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports /

Looking at the Western Conference, the Warriors further improved at the Thunder’s expense. The Spurs and Clippers are relatively unchanged. The Jazz are deeper and healthy (For now.) Memphis and Houston will be battling for the playoffs like last year, Dallas regressed and the lower tier teams will be more competitive. All in all, the Trail Blazers over/under should not be changed by the landscape of the Western Conference.

Finally, the public perception plays a major part in setting the over/under. Portland is not a major market, therefore the win totals can be set slightly conservative. The NBA world took notice of the money thrown around by the Trail Blazers, but most do not believe this team is drastically improved. Portland was believed to have over achieved last season and many pundits could select the Trail Blazers as a potential regression team. The public perception, like usual, will drop the over/under a couple games.

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Final prediction: Over/Under 45.5 wins

What do you think Rip City? Will Las Vegas give the Trail Blazers the proper amount of respect they deserve heading into the 2016-17 campaign?