How much will it cost the Trail Blazers to retain their restricted free agents?
Free agency is coming up quickly and the Trail Blazers will face some tough choices this July. Allen Crabbe, Maurice Harkless, and Meyers Leonard are all set to hit a market that is flush with money. Even with the salary cap increase in mind, Portland may find themselves in a precarious situation when it comes to keeping this promising trio together.
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It is hard to comprehend that the Trail Blazers went from a low payroll underdog to a team that might be well over the salary cap to start the 2016-17 season. For starters, Damian Lillard‘s massive contract extension officially starts this season. His stellar play earned him an even bigger raise, which now has his salary at an impressive 25.9 million dollars (cap figures via Spotrac). Lillard’s contract makes up roughly half of the Blazers’ 53.2 million dollar payroll heading into free agency.
With the cap set to hit 92 million dollars this summer, it appears that the Blazers will have 38.8 million dollars in available funds. Unfortunately for Portland, it isn’t that simple. In order to have that much money they would have to renounce the rights to all of their free agents (including the trio in question). Renouncing their rights would free up the current cap holds (36.8 million dollars worth), but it would prohibit Olshey’s ability to exceed the cap to re-sign those players.
Let’s assume that the Trail Blazers renounce the rights to Gerald Henderson, Chris Kaman, and Brian Roberts. That would free up 19.2 million dollars, which would give Olshey 19.6 million dollars in cap space to pursue a premier free agent. This is all predicated on the idea that Portland will be able to put their own restricted free agents on the back burner while they pursue another player. If Crabbe, Harkless, or Leonard sign an offer sheet with another team their cap hold will instantly rise to that figure. A raise to any of their cap holds will eat directly into the 19.6 million dollars mentioned above.
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Gauging the potential salaries for Portland’s restricted free agents is unpredictable given the cap increase. Allen Crabbe will likely get paid around 12-15 million dollars a year. Young “3 &D” players are always in demand. Several teams will be lining up to land the sweet shooting 24 year old.
Harkless is probably the most unpredictable, but let’s assume he will make anywhere between 9-12 million dollars a year. Al-Farouq Aminu made 8 million dollars in his first year in Portland. Harkless has similar skills, but is younger. You have the makings of an eight digit salary when you factor in his age (23) and the salary cap increase.
Leonard will likely be the only one of the trio to come at a discount. Due to his injuries and inconsistencies, he will likely be in the 7-9 million dollars a year range. This might seem like a big number for some Rip City fans, but Leonard has a skill set that is coveted by today’s NBA. Someone will pay for his potential.
For this example, we will assume that each player gives Portland a discount and signs on the low end of their potential earnings. That means that these three would eat up a combined 28 million dollars of cap space. If Olshey is able to land a big time player for the 19.6 million dollars mentioned above, it would put the Trail Blazers payroll at roughly 100.8 million dollars going into next season.
Being roughly 8.8 million dollars over the salary cap isn’t necessarily a problem when you have an owner like Paul Allen, but it will seriously limit Portland’s flexibility in the future. This scenario also does not factor in C.J. McCollum‘s potential contract extension during the summer of 2017.
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With all of this in mind, it looks like Olshey will likely have to part ways with at least one of these three players. Of course, Portland could get passed over once again in free agency, which would open the door for the trio to return.