A Revised Western Conference Playoffs Update
After the Portland Trail Blazers dominated the Rockets twice in a week, it was time to change the format of the playoffs update article. As laid out in the very first playoffs update, the premise was that the Houston Rockets would figure things out and it really was a battle for the eighth seed. That is not the case. The Rockets are a mess and the Trail Blazers and Jazz separated themselves from the Western Conference cellar. Going further up the standings, the Dallas Mavericks are struggling mightily and rely on an aging Dirk Nowitzki and fragile Chandler Parsons. It is not the bottom eight teams fighting for one playoff spot anymore. The race is now between the fifth through ninth place teams. Five teams fighting to earn one of the four playoff spots. Even though Memphis has a healthy lead, their best player, Marc Gasol, is likely done for the rest of the regular season.
While the Blazers have one of the toughest schedules remaining in the NBA, they have a huge opportunity ahead of this four game home stand. After a likely loss against Stephen Curry and friends on Friday, they can clinch the season series against the Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets. If the Blazers take care of business at home, they will have a vital tie-breaker against its two closest competitors.
Before the NBA continues Thursday night, Rip City Project takes a look at the best and worst case scenarios for the five teams battling for the bottom half of the Western Conference Playoffs.
Five Teams, Four Spots
*RCP Playoffs % is a complex algorithm that consists of watching NBA games and making partially educated guesses.
Memphis Grizzlies: 31-22 LW: 3-1 RCP Playoffs % = 98%
BEST CASE: The Z-Bo fueled Memphis Grizzlies hang on to their 5th seed and match up with the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round. Gasol magically recovers from his broken foot in time for the playoffs and dominates DeAndre Jordan. After the Clippers implode and lose the series in six games, Blake Griffin punches out the Grizzlies equipment manager, just for good measure.
WORST CASE: The Grizzlies barely hobble to the eighth seed, only to be swept by the Warriors. They don’t even force Curry to play the 4th quarter in any of the games. Mike Conley decides to sign with the Miami Heat. Time to rebuild.
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Dallas Mavericks: 29-26 LW: 1-3 RCP Playoffs % = 82%
BEST CASE: Wesley Matthews’ Achilles is rejuvenated after the all-star break. Parsons continues his hot shooting. The Mavericks earn a first round rematch with the San Antonio Spurs. Again, the Mavericks shock the NBA world and take the Spurs to a game seven highlighted by a Nowitzki game winner or two. At Dirk’s retirement announcement, Cuban reveals he will offer a small ownership stake at a major discount if Nowitzki says yes in the next thirty seconds, Shark Tank style.
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WORST CASE: Raymond Felton uses the all-star break to fill out his buffet punch cards in Dallas, Parsons uses the break to help launch his male modeling career and Dirk finally opens the door when father time comes knocking. The Mavericks narrowly miss the playoffs. Mark Cuban aimlessly wonders the Dallas-Fort Worth area this spring pleading strangers to watch the latest Shark Tank episode.
Utah Jazz: 26-26 LW: 3-1 RCP Playoffs % = 76%
BEST CASE: The Utah Jazz basically replace the Memphis Grizzlies in every way possible over the next few months… and years. They win 20 of their last 30 in the regular season, grab the Grizzlies’ 5th seed, and upset a Clippers team waiting to implode in the first round. With the defense the Jazz have at full strength, they replace an aging Memphis team as the grind-it-out team with two dominant big men who are a tough out in the playoffs.
WORST CASE: The Jazz fall into injury trouble again, miss the playoffs and are left with some tough questions to be answered. Will the core players in Utah ever be strong enough to contend in the West? Is Gordon Hayward really a superstar? Will there ever be a less desirable city for NBA players to live in? The answer to the last question will always be a resounding “no.” If they miss the playoffs again, the first two questions might also be “no.”
Houston Rockets: 27-28 LW: 2-3 RCP Playoffs % = 72%
BEST CASE: James Harden can wipe away the Kardashian stink after his recent breakup with Khloe. (Ask Kris Humphries, Reggie Bush and Lamar Odom about this curse) Harden rediscovers his magic and he quits sucking the life out of his teammates. They do just enough to earn a first round matchup with the Clippers and conjure up a repeat of last year’s nightmare series for the Clips.
WORST CASE: Harden and Khloe get back together. The Rockets miss the playoffs and the Kardashian curse lives on. GM Darryl Morey is forced to create a new analytic that attempts to capture the damage on team chemistry that a player dating a Kardashian can create.
Portland Trail Blazers: 27-27 LW: 4-1 RCP Playoffs % = 72%
BEST CASE: The Blazers stand pat at the trade deadline and allow the young core of players continue to grow. They continue their hot streak from prior to the all-star break and the rest of the NBA takes notice. Head Coach Terry Stotts earns Coach of the Year and a large contract extension. The Blazers earn the sixth seed in the West and give Oklahoma City Thunder headaches in the first round with their new found depth. With the young core in place, Portland suddenly becomes an enticing city for a free agent big man to land this off season.
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WORST CASE: General Manager Neil Olshey gets ahead of himself and makes a move to improve the Blazers in the short term. The move does not work, ruins team chemistry and the Blazers are smothered by their tough remaining schedule. To make matters worse, they let Stotts walk and are forced to drastically over pay marginal players to come to Portland next season.