Ghosts of the Afflalo Trade

The effects from the Trail Blazers trade for Arron Afflalo still linger today.

As the trade deadline creeps up it is important that the Trail Blazers learn from their past. Last season Portland was primed for a deep run in the playoffs. This led to them exploring potential trades that would help bolster their bench. The trade that was eventually agreed upon saw Portland send three players and a lottery protected first round pick to Denver for Arron Afflalo (full details here). Many believed adding Afflalo to the bench would help transform the Trail Blazers into a legitimate title contender. Shortly after the trade, injuries derailed the plans and hopes for a Portland playoff run.

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Afflalo’s time in Portland ended in the following offseason, as he opted out of the final year of his contract. Despite Afflalo’s quick departure, the Trail Blazers still found themselves on the hook for their future first round pick. With the selection being lottery protected (Portland keeps the pick if they miss the playoffs) it seemed like it was a safe assumption that it would stay in Portland’s possession. The solid play of the revamped Trail Blazers have now turned that assumption on its head.

April 9, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Arron Afflalo (4, right) reacts after an injury during the fourth quarter against the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Trail Blazers 116-105. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Trail Blazers are now sitting in the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They now also face the reality that they will have to give up their first round pick to Denver if the standings hold. Portland must balance the decision of establishing a winning culture (push for the playoffs) or building a potent roster for the future (missing the playoffs – keeping the pick).

The looming salary cap jump will supply the majority of the league with money to pursue free agents this summer, thus leaving small market teams with an uphill battle at the negotiation table. This makes the draft even more crucial for teams like the Trail Blazers this offseason. With the influx of money league wide, draft night will likely be the only guaranteed way Portland will be able to get top talent at a fair price.

This is clearly not the situation Neil Olshey thought he would be in when he pulled the trigger on the trade with the Nuggets. Small market teams must bolster their line up anytime a championship window opens, but the future is far from a certainty in the NBA. The Afflalo trade not only forces the Portland front office to make tough choices on the direction of this season, but also hinders Olshey’s ability to use future assets in trades this season.

Hindsight is 20/20, so it easy to label last season’s trade as a disaster from this vantage point. Even without the benefit of looking back, it will be important for the Trail Blazers to guard their remaining picks in future trades. Maybe the Trail Blazers can capitalize on another franchise’s short-sightedness at the deadline this year.