How Did Barton Get Away?

The Risk of a Short-Term Solution

As recent as February 2015, the Portland Trail Blazers were title contenders. They were a sixth man away from a complete team. It was a tricky situation – while title contenders do not come around often in Portland, the future of their stacked starting lineup was in flux. LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez were all set to be free agents at seasons end.

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General Manager Neil Olshey found the seemingly perfect trade. Arron Afflalo was the exact piece to fit the Blazers’ puzzle. He was a veteran who guarded multiple positions on defense while providing efficient outside shooting coming off the bench. The Blazers only surrendered a lottery-protected first round pick and three lightly used bench players to acquire Afflalo. Losing a late first round pick did not minimize the future of the Blazers, while the chances at a deep playoff run had increased with Afflalo on the roster. A deep playoff run might convince the trio of stars to stay in Portland long-term. Unfortunately, this idealistic scenario did not come to fruition.

The NBA title hopes went out the window March 5^th as Matthews was cutting to the basket. All Blazers fans are familiar with the events that followed. A ruptured Matthews’ achilles left the Blazers without a bench scoring threat again, as Afflalo was thrust into the starting lineup. The Memphis Grizzlies easily dismissed the Blazers from the playoffs. Aldridge decided to return to his home state. The Blazers decided to rebuild.

Bringing up this tragic moment in Blazers history is not meant to further torment a depressed fan base, but to contextualize how much of an afterthought Will Barton was last year. He was one of the three players handed over to the Nuggets in February. He appeared in 30 games prior to the trade scoring 3.0 points a game on 38% shooting. It was the third NBA season for the 24 year old from Baltimore, and the first two were not much better.

Barton’s Ascension

Fast forward to present day December – Barton is the front runner for sixth man of the year. He is scoring 16 points, grabbing 6 rebounds and dishing out 2.5 assists a game. This is not a case of more minutes equals more stats – His per-minute stats have improved in virtually every category. Barton is shooting over 46% from the field and 40% from three point range. Earlier this month, he dropped a career-high 32 points on New Orleans. There is even a player efficiency rating that declares him more valuable than Damian Lillard. (Do not believe every statistic!) Barton is clearly enjoying a breakout season and has yet to turn 25 years old. How he would have fit on the Blazers current roster is a whole separate discussion; clearly he has a place in the league and is providing the Nuggets a ton of value.

How did the Blazers let an asset like Barton go so easily last year?

Who is to Blame?

There are three potential explanations: Head Coach Terry Stotts never gave Barton enough minutes in Portland, Olshey was too nearsighted with his trade for Afflalo or Barton is simply a late-bloomer.

Stotts has enjoyed success in Portland. Fans generally think he is a good coach and the media agrees. The Blazers have performed for him thus far and despite a rebuilding effort this year, he is not going anywhere. The one qualm with Stotts’ tenure in Portland has been the development of his bench, or lack thereof. At times, his usage of players seemed random. Understandably, he chose to ride his excellent starting lineup as much as possible the past two seasons. However, it is tough for bench players to contribute when they are not receiving meaningful playing time game-to-game.

NBA general managers have to balance short-term and long-term ramifications with every decision. No doubt, Olshey felt pressure to improve the team in the short-term to hopefully convince his trio of stars to sign long-term. It could have been a win-win situation. It is difficult to blame Olshey for making the trade; not often do the Blazers have a talented enough team to make a title run. However, the franchise ultimately gave up a substantial amount for three months of Afflalo. (He signed with the Knicks in the off-season) Thomas Robinson or Victor Claver, the other two players given to Denver, just as easily could have developed into a solid 6^th man on their respective teams this year.

The Blazers only surrendered a lottery-protected first round pick and three lightly used bench players to acquire Afflalo.

Of course, there is always a chance that Barton is a late bloomer. One of the strongest cases for this theory is his 3-point shooting. He was far from a reliable threat in Portland, shooting 22% from downtown. His college days don’t provide any evidence of an outside shot either. This season, Barton takes over four three-pointers a game, making 40%. These are elite NBA numbers and it has turned him into a different player. Barton also benefited from a relationship with his General Manager. Reportedly, they have known each other since Barton was 12 years old. Soon after being traded to Denver, he was signed to a three year extension worth over $10 million. In retrospect, the Nuggets got a bargain.

While each of the aforementioned reasons is partially to blame for Barton’s quiet departure and excellent play in Denver, Stotts can take the majority of blame. Barton was given only a handful of minutes in meaningful games last year. Had Barton carved out a significant role last season, his value would have been much higher than an afterthought in the Afflalo trade. Maybe the Blazers would still have their first round pick. An athletic 24 year old wing that can play defense and provide points off the bench likely could have been swapped for the veteran Afflalo straight up. Perhaps a trade was never necessary and the pre-Matthews injury Blazers had their missing piece all along last year, sitting next to Stotts on the bench.