Don’t look now but the Portland Trail Blazers are the #2 seed in the Western Conference. Let’s enjoy this while it lasts Blazer fans, because we could see a drop off come quickly.
The Blazers face another team that is exceeding expectations Sunday night, the 4-1 Detroit Pistons. The Pistons were supposed to be a team in NBA purgatory; not being good enough to contend for a championship, but also not competing for the vital number one pick. However, coach Stan Van Gundy has rallied the troops to play basketball that he is not keen to seeing on his teams: be gritty on defense and rely on second chance opportunities on offense.
Nov 6, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Detroit Pistons head coach Stan Van Gundy reacts in the second quarter against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Usually a Van Gundy style team has far superior shooting than this one. The one player that can just destroy Portland if he gets going is shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell Pope. Pope is in his third year from Georgia and has really taken control of this offense. Pope has the green light whenever he pleases and usually knocks the shot down.
Point Guard Reggie Jackson is proving to the NBA world that he is not someone’s backup, like he was used in Oklahoma City, but a player that can lead his team to the playoffs. The offense goes through Jackson and depends on the decisions he makes out of the pick and rolls. He may be one of the few other guys that can knock down a shot if it came down to it.
Maybe the most important player on this Pistons team is center Andre Drummond. Drummond is putting up Chamberlain-esque rebounding numbers with 19.0 per game. The Pistons set him up with some iso post plays, but it is evident that he is not possessed with the ability to score yet. Most of his points come from his relentless ability to get every offensive rebound in the vicinity.
The Pistons run an offense very similar to the Jazz, where there is a lot of pick and rolls but not so much isos. The Pistons do run in transition but not in the extreme that the Suns do it, mostly when they get steals or long rebounds.
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Usually Jackson does the pick and roll with Drummond, but in this particular play it is Pope. Pope gets the screen from Drummond at the elbow and reads what the defender is doing. The Suns center, Tyson Chandler, does not want to leave Drummond alone for the easy alley oop or an offensive rebound, so he stays an arm distance away. This eliminates Chandler’s rim presence and Pope goes in for the easy two.
The last paragraph I said that Chandler didn’t want to leave Drummond because of the alley oop chance. Well in this play that is exactly what happens. Jackson uses the screen and Drummond’s defender comes over to help, leaving Drummond unguarded. All Jackson has to do is throw it near the rim and Drummond will finish it.
Now, just because you stuff the alley oop part of the pick and roll does not mean that your job as the defender is finished, Drummond can always get the offensive rebound. Jackson misses the shot here as Chandler does a good job of helping, but no one helps Chandler out at rebounding the ball. When you play a guy who AVERAGES 19 boards a game it has to be impossible to forget to put a body on him. This time the Suns do and Drummond gets an easy two points.
As always the ball handler does not need to use the screen. In this scenario that is what Jackson does, as he sees Suns guard Eric Bledsoe in a bad position. The help by Chandler is late and he connects with the floater.
The Pistons want to get Drummond in the post as well and let him work in isolation. At this point in Drummond’s career he is not at the level where he can score on every play in the post. The majority of his shots are still with his right hand over the left shoulder. In this play however, he shoots over the right shoulder and converts after some movement by the Pistons and a cross screen that gets Drummond open in the low post.
When the Pistons do run they do not forget about their big man. Drummond’s strength allows him to bury opponents deep into the paint and give him good position for a shot. In this transition play, Jackson is patient with the ball and does not want to force up a shot. He sees that Drummond has ran up the court and sealed his man under the basket. He rewards his big with the ball and sees what he can do with it. Drummond unfortunately does not make the shot but his hustle is what the Pistons love about him.
The Blazers, for the most part, line up well against the Pistons. Portland always seem to struggle against teams that can run in transition. However, the Pistons don’t have the same artillery the Suns had when it came to three point shooting and may not be able to put out a feisty Trail Blazers team.
What Detroit has going for them is matchup nightmare in Andre Drummond. It will take about three players to make sure he does not get an offensive rebound and a lot of luck that the ball doesn’t bounce off the rim towards him. If the Blazers can limit him to less than 15 rebounds (and I don’t know how they will) they should be in good position to take this game.
The Pistons will probably make the playoffs this year in the weak Eastern Conference. Portland will probably not make the playoffs at all this year. But, right now both teams are on top of their conferences and look to push through to be on the very top by the end of the season.
This game is at the Moda Center where the Blazers have proven that home court advantage does exist. Going into the game Portland is favorited by four, according to Oddsharks. I don’t see how Portland stops the beast of Drummond and therefore I think the Pistons take the game by about 6-7 points. Not being a downer, just being realistic. Hey, hopefully I am wrong like the last few games and the Blazers win their 4th straight!