Trail Blazers, Timberwolves start and stop trade talks

For about 40 minutes last night, Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer captured the basketball world’s attention with a report that the Portland Trail Blazers and Minnesota Timberwolves were tentatively considering a major trade. Said trade would ultimately not come to fruition, as Bonnell provided an update stating that talks were dead shortly after his initial report. Still, the idea of a “major deal” piqued the interest of those following the situation as it unfolded.

I'm told Blazers and T'Wolves are working on a major deal. Could all fall apart, but something is going on with cap room.
— Rick Bonnell (@rick_bonnell) August 22, 2015

Was told Timberwolves explored trade options. It's dead.
— Rick Bonnell (@rick_bonnell) August 22, 2015

Although nothing officially happened, let’s take a moment to examine what the trade might have looked like based on each team’s pieces and needs.

Since Bonnell noted that “something is going on with cap room,” it is highly likely that this was a salary dump from Minnesota in some form. The Timberwolves are slightly above the $70.0M salary cap at $73.6M, where the Trail Blazers are significantly below the $56.8M cap floor with only $48.3M. If the Trail Blazers took on one of the Timberwolves’ larger contracts, both teams would move into more favorable financial standing.

Considering that the Trail Blazers have just 12 fully guaranteed contracts while the Timberwolves have 16 (one more than the maximum allowed during the regular season) it would make sense for the Timberwolves to desire primarily waivable players and/or draft picks. As long as their total number of outgoing guaranteed contracts is greater than their total number of incoming guaranteed contracts in a hypothetical trade, they are moving in the right direction.

So who were the Timberwolves most likely looking to move? Although Ricky Rubio has been mentioned in trade rumors lately, and he is the highest paid player on their roster, he would not make sense in Portland where Damian Lillard is deeply rooted at point guard. Other pieces of the Timberwolves’ youth movement would be more palatable to the Trail Blazers, fitting in nicely with General Manager Neil Olshey’s vision for the team, but the Timberwolves have no real reason to part with them. Guys like Shabazz Muhammad and Zach LaVine are a) inexpensive, and b) part of their future plans.

Feb 20, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Nikola Pekovic (14) shoots in the second quarter against the Phoenix Suns at Target Center. The Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Phoenix Suns 111-109. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

It is probable, then, that the Timberwolves were trying to unload the ugly contract of Nikola Pekovic. Pekovic’s days have been numbered in Minnesota since the moment the Timberwolves drew the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NBA Draft. The Timberwolves were already struggling to find room for both him and Gorgui Dieng at center, but the company of two became a crowd of three with the addition of Karl-Anthony Towns. It is no longer worth paying Pekovic $12M per season (for three more seasons) to either sit on the bench or take valuable playing time away from his more promising teammates.

In the past, the Trail Blazers would have loved to bring Pekovic to Portland. He was vaguely connected to the Trail Blazers before Robin Lopez came and went, but bear in mind that circumstances have changed significantly since then. Pekovic is coming off of a miserable season in which he played just 31 games between injuries. When he was healthy, he was not good. Players that score primarily within eight feet of the rim are supposed to shoot better than 42.4 percent; especially when they are 6’11”. Since the Trail Blazers already have a core of young frontcourt players, they have little incentive to absorb his contract unless he is packaged with something sweeter.

If Pekovic was indeed the meat of the initial proposal, this is probably where talks fell apart. The Timberwolves want to jettison Pekovic and bring in non-guaranteed contracts. The Trail Blazers would consider accepting Pekovic if he came with a piece they could add to their collection of young talent. The Timberwolves would be unwilling to send such a piece without reasonable compensation, which they can only get in the form of a draft pick if they do not want to take on more salary or go over the roster limit. The Trail Blazers would understandably draw the line at including a first rounder in any deal amidst a rebuild. Close, but no cigar.

Of course, this is all purely conjecture. The intricacies of trading in the NBA allow for a plethora of other hypothetical scenarios— this one is just ostensibly probable. Regardless of which secondary and tertiary pieces came into play as the teams discussed terms, the Timberwolves would have pushed Pekovic pretty hard. It is possible that deals would become more and more workable for each team as more and more players were brought into discussion, but I do not think either franchise would have been willing to disassemble too much for the sake of completing a trade that did not fit well in its simplest form.

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