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Mailbag: Who should start alongside Damian Lillard and Mason Plumlee?

By David MacKay

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Great question. With only two of five starting positions presumably cemented, the Trail Blazers’ lineup is wide open. There are 11 players capable of filling the remaining three spots at shooting guard, small forward, and power forward—many of whom are of comparable caliber. No standouts means no easy answers, so let’s pick through this position by position.

Mar 1, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Charlotte Hornets guard Gerald Henderson (9) pumps his fist after he made a basket as time expires at the end of the second quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Shooting guards: Gerald Henderson, C.J. McCollum, Allen Crabbe, Pat Connaughton

We can cross out Connaughton from the get-go. A gifted player, yes, but he is going to have a hard time cracking rotation, much less the starting lineup. Terry Stotts is not about to thrust the 41st pick of this year’s draft into the center of the Trail Blazers’ rebuilding design unless injuries force his hand. Connaughton will have to work his way up from the bottom, as McCollum and Crabbe did before him.

Crabbe is still at the bottom in some regards. Despite being one of the hardest workers on the team, there are more talented if not equally deserving players ready to contribute ahead of him. I expect to see Crabbe earning more regular minutes this season, but not as a starter for the most part. Remember, though, that the starting lineup will not be as firmly set this year as it has been in the past. Crabbe may be called upon circumstantially.

McCollum is more likely to hear the call early and often. He is anticipated to have the highest ceiling of any Trail Blazers guard not named Damian Lillard. Since this is going to be a developmental season for the team, McCollum’s incipient career arc must be kept in mind when fostering long term growth. That being said, he may still be better suited for coming off the bench. Stotts has stated that McCollum will play more point guard this year, so it would make sense to keep him fresh for relieving either position and providing a spark.

Henderson is my pick to start at shooting guard. With six seasons of NBA experience, he is the most senior guard on the roster. For the past four seasons, Henderson has been a starter in Charlotte, averaging double-digit scoring in each. He may not be the kind of 3-point specialist that the Trail Blazers tend to covet, but it is difficult to imagine benching him in favor of largely unproven youth. We may see that change as the season wears on.

Mar 22, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Al-Farouq Aminu (7) against the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center. The Suns defeated the Mavericks 98-92. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Small forwards: Al-Farouq Aminu, Maurice Harkless, Mike Miller, * Crabbe, *Connaughton

This one is a less complex in my eyes. First off, it should be stated that both Crabbe and Connaughton can swing to small forward, but neither will start for the same reasons that are listed above. However, the circumstantial nature of Crabbe’s involvement stands. His offensive range and defensive consistency make him an easy plug-in when Stotts wants to shake things up.

The starter here is going to be Aminu. He is the tallest, the most athletic, and the toughest defender at the small forward position. Although he does not provide a whole lot in the half court offense, his strengths are assumed to be more impactful than his weaknesses, making his presence among the starters a net positive. That is a big part of why the Trail Blazers made a 4-year investment in him. They expect his offensive development to be a worthwhile project in the long-term, while his defensive intensity redeems the cost in the here and now.

As for Miller and Harkless, one is too aged to start and the other is too inexperienced. It has been five seasons since Miller was a regular starter in the NBA. He is really more of a guiding presence at this point. Harkless, on the other hand, is struggling to find his place in the league. He has the potential to be a starter one day, but such standing must be hard-earned by someone in his situation.

Apr 15, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Charlotte Hornets forward Noah Vonleh (11) holds the ball as Toronto Raptors guard Greivis Vasquez (21) and Raptors forward Patrick Patterson (54) defend at the Air Canada Centre. The Hornets won 92-87. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Power forwards: Ed Davis, Meyers Leonard, Noah Vonleh, Cliff Alexander

Alexander can be scratched. Undrafted rookies rarely leapfrog established players in rotation, and for good reason. Hopefully, he will have a chance to prove himself, but he has the most to prove at this point. I look forward to his effort.

The prevailing thought for a while now has been that Davis will draw the starting job. I, personally, am opposed to this—not because Davis isn’t starter material, but because he and Plumlee together would be a spacing nightmare. A bit more on that is detailed here. It is hard to run a successful offense while fielding two players that score almost exclusively at the rim, though Davis would be a big help on defense.

Leonard is sort of the anti-Davis. He scores rather efficiently from deep, but has only been a defensively viable option in short bursts. I can get behind playing him and Plumlee together for size and spacing, but I don’t think Leonard could keep his personal fouls in check long enough to play heavy minutes. He is better suited for coming off the bench so that he can provide backup at the 4 or the 5 as needed.

Which brings us to Vonleh, who is more of a mixed bag. He can shoot the three like Leonard, but can hold position inside like Davis. The Trail Blazers gave up a lot to get him and should consider boosting his development as much as possible by throwing him into the mix; out of the Charlotte frying pan and into the Portland fire. Although Summer League performances should always be taken with a grain of salt, his seemed to indicate a readiness for big things. If I were in Stotts’ position, Vonleh would start on opening night.

Final answer: Henderson, Aminu, Vonleh

More from Rip City Project

Next: Plumlee's potential to produce in a larger role