What would it take for the Trail Blazers to make the playoffs?

After losing four of five starters in free agency, the Portland Trail Blazers are not expected to make the NBA Playoffs in 2016. They lost significant ground in an absurdly tough conference that is only getting tougher. To better see this, let’s look at the 2015 Western Conference playoff teams in order of best regular season record, and compare their major off-season moves.

Golden State Warriors (67-15)
Notable additions: Jason Thompson, Kevon Looney
Notable losses: David Lee

Los Angeles Clippers (56-26)
Notable additions: Lance Stephenson, Paul Pierce, Josh Smith, Pablo Prigioni, Wesley Johnson
Notable losses: Matt Barnes, Spencer Hawes

Houston Rockets (56-26)
Notable additions: Ty Lawson
Notable losses: Josh Smith

San Antonio Spurs (55-27)
Notable additions: LaMarcus Aldridge, David West
Notable losses: Tiago Splitter, Cory Joseph

Memphis Grizzlies (55-27)
Notable additions: Brandan Wright, Matt Barnes
Notable losses: Kosta Koufos

Portland Trail Blazers (51-31)
Notable additions: Noah Vonleh, Mason Plumlee, Gerald Henderson, Ed Davis, Al-Farouq Aminu, Maurice Harkless
Notable losses: LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, Robin Lopez, Arron Afflalo

Dallas Mavericks (50-32)
Notable additions: Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews, Justin Anderson, Zaza Pachulia
Notable losses: Monta Ellis, Tyson Chandler, Rajon Rondo, Brandan Wright, Al-Farouq Aminu

New Orleans Pelicans (45-37)
Notable additions: Kendrick Perkins
Notable losses: N/A

The Clippers, Rockets, Spurs, and Grizzlies all improved over the summer; the Pelicans stayed about even; the Warriors and Mavericks took small steps back; and the Trail Blazers almost completely disassembled.

It stands to reason that the majority of these teams will make the playoffs again in 2015-16, with the exception of the Trail Blazers and possibly the Mavericks. The Oklahoma City Thunder are just waiting to snatch someone’s spot after finishing 45-37 (losing the tiebreak to the Pelicans) without 2014 MVP Kevin Durant. Once healthy, they will almost certainly displace one of the team’s listed above.

Feb 8, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Portland Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts watches from the sideline during the third quarter against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. The Trail Blazers defeated the Rockets 109-98. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

So what would it take for the Trail Blazers to sneak back into the playoffs?

1. Major injuries

There are a handful of major injuries to important players every year, so seeing a few giants felled would not be unprecedented. If other teams – particularly those at the tail end of the top-8 in the West– are forced to deal with a major loss, it could open the door for teams like the Trail Blazers to step forward, provided they conversely remain healthy.

2. A new star

The Trail Blazers have several young players with potential to emerge in the coming years. Typically, such an emergence does not happen overnight, but the lack of veterans in front of anyone on the depth chart could lead to rapid development. If either Plumlee, Vonleh, C.J. McCollum, or Meyers Leonard can become the clear-cut second option after Damian Lillard, this team could verge on threatening.

3. Instant chemistry

This is a tough one. The Trail Blazers have acquired a variety of players that can defend and rebound at a respectable level, but there is no telling how they will fit together yet; especially on the offensive end. Head Coach Terry Stotts must work quickly to determine which player combinations keep the team in sync. Since there are few standout talents on the roster, it will take a great deal of teamwork to make this squad more than the sum of its parts.

4. A new approach

Which brings us to Stotts himself. He has the unenviable job of adjusting his playbook to accommodate the team’s new strengths and weaknesses. This transition will be a test of his mettle as a coach. If he is able to design a system that gives his players the best chance for success, they may just find it.

5. Lillard time

This is Lillard’s team now. In order to lead it to victory, he needs to be more than his extraordinary self. Scoring 21 points per game isn’t enough anymore. The only way the Trail Blazers make the playoffs is if Lillard makes huge personal strides. If Lillard is not in the MVP conversation the Trail Blazers are not in the playoff race, and vice versa. This is his year to put the team on his back and carry it while they figure out how to stand on their own.

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