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Mailbag: Will Terry Stotts survive the Trail Blazers’ rebuild?

By David MacKay

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I tend to think that Terry Stotts will survive. Or, at least, he won’t be fired. Whether or not the team keeps him on after this season depends on a variety of factors. Will Stotts be able to adjust his approach to accommodate the talents of his new roster? If so, how apparent is their potential to thrive under his guidance in the future? If not, do the Trail Blazers value stability over a fresh start? Stotts has two more years left on his contract and a team option before the 2016-17 season, so the front office will be looking at these things.

No matter what happens, I can virtually guarantee that Stotts will get more flack this year than he ever has in Portland. It is fairly common for some members of the public to attribute coaching success to riding coattails, after the loss of the star players with which success was found. This Trail Blazers team is probably looking at an over/under of 29.5 wins with the new roster in 2015-16, and that is going to upset a lot of people right out of the gate.

Dec 9, 2014; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Portland Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts during the game against the Detroit Pistons at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

As the team hits stumbling blocks en route to finding its identity, Stotts’ coaching foibles will be highlighted instead of overlooked. Previous errors have been swept under the rug of “at least they still won,” but the safety of that recess will diminish when the threads are pulled away. Even the parts of his playbook that have garnered praise (E.g.: ATO plays) will be scrutinized as we see where new faces fall on the learning curve of execution. Every detail of Stotts’ coaching will be under a microscope.

That being said, there is abundant room for understanding. The front office knows that this is a multi-year rebuild. The roster has been stocked with youth for Stotts to shape and mold into the team he wants it to be. Stotts’ predecessor, Nate McMillan (another 50-win coach), did not have this luxury before he was fired. He was expected to keep Portland relevant with newly added veterans, some of which clashed with his approach. After losing Brandon Roy and Greg Oden, that simply wasn’t going to happen. Stotts does not carry that same burden of playoff expectation.

So while Stotts is likely in for some heavy criticism at times, I would be surprised if it came from anyone whose opinion carried weight within the organization. At least not this year. A season or two from now will be a different story if the Trail Blazers do not improve quickly. The longer it takes for the team to reclaim success, the more precarious Stotts’ position becomes. There is, however, something to be said for leading the team through their most successful post-season (2014) since Mike Dunleavy in 2000. Stotts will be allowed a reasonable amount of time to show that he can get there again.

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