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Mailbag: Should the Trail Blazers trade Nicolas Batum?

By David MacKay

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If the Portland Trail Blazers believe that they have a shot to contend in 2015-16, they have little incentive to trade Nicolas Batum. However; for the sake of fleshing out an argument in favor of trade, we can explore a scenario in which the Trail Blazers would potentially swap him out, and what they could expect to receive in return.

Every move that the Trail Blazers make between now and the beginning of next season is tied to the fate of LaMarcus Aldridge. Again, if Aldridge re-signs in Portland, the Trail Blazers should probably keep as much of the team intact as they can, and trust that 2014-15 was just a down year for Batum. If Aldridge departs, however, Batum would almost certainly be on the table.

Without Aldridge, the Trail Blazers would enter rebuild mode. Since Portland isn’t exactly an attractive market to marquee players, their best bet at a lasting resurgence would be to acquire young talent through trade instead of hoping to land an instant replacement in free agency.

Batum’s $12M expiring contract would be enticing for teams that are looking to clear cap space in 2016. In which case, the Trail Blazers would do well to seek out teams that want to shed some of their multi-year contracts. A proper arrangement would allow their trade partner to pursue the All-star of their dreams when Batum’s contract expires, while the Trail Blazers reel in high upside players that become more cost effective after the projected cap increase of 2016.

Feb 27, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Celtics guard Avery Bradley (0) dunks during the second half of the Boston Celtics 106-98 win over the Charlotte Hornets at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

The basic idea would be to stock up on guys that have shown signs of yet unrealized potential, who are still locked in at a relatively low price while they reach it. That way, as the team’s budget spikes, the percentage of the overall salary that said players absorb shrinks, effectively giving the Trail Blazers the most long-term bang for their buck.

There are a few such players sprinkled around the league, including Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley of the Boston Celtics, Markieff Morris and Marcus Morris of the Phoenix Suns, Tyreke Evans of the New Orleans Pelicans, Alec Burks of the Utah Jazz, Robert Covington of the Philadelphia 76ers, Kenneth Faried of the Denver Nuggets, and Lance Stephenson of the Charlotte Hornets—a few of whom would be theoretically available in discussion. One or more could be packaged with valuable draft picks and/or appropriate filler for Batum.

If some of those sound like raw deals, that’s because, in a present day vacuum, they are. Batum’s stock is far from soaring right now, and rebuilding requires a bit of gambling, but that’s how it goes. If President of Basketball Operations Neil Olshey wants to sniff out a trade that balances more immediately, he can always aim for established players that are known quantities, sacrificing developmental possibility for steady value. This is where your suggestion of Trevor Ariza fits nicely.

Ariza is one of a few solid vets that are slated to occupy that $5M-$10M range for years to come. Others include Taj Gibson of the Chicago Bulls, Kevin Martin of the Minnesota Timberwolves, and Tony Allen of the Memphis Grizzlies. All of them will be reasonable values after the cap increase, but all are at or beyond their peak right now. Great pickups for a couple deep playoff runs, but not so much for a rebuild. Perhaps worth an inquiry regardless.

If the Trail Blazers find themselves with a dearth of trade targets that fit their agenda, they can look to trading into the draft lottery next month instead. Rebuilding through the draft is not inadvisable, but since the Trail Blazers won’t know whether or not they need to rebuild until Aldridge makes his decision in July, moving a foundational piece of the starting five to do so would be awfully risky. There are precious few reasons for Aldridge to stick around while the Trail Blazers resituate themselves if he can “win now” elsewhere.

Knowing all this, to answer your question in the most succinct terms possible:

  • Yes if Aldridge leaves and they decide to rebuild.
  • No if Aldridge stays and they want to contend.
  • Maybe for a draft pick if Aldridge seems anxious and they are feeling squirrelly.

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