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Mailbag: Marc Gasol, free agency, and the Trail Blazers

By David MacKay

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A shot? Technically. A legitimate shot? Probably not. Marc Gasol will be a highly sought after free agent this summer, with almost any team that has cap room calling to at least check in. Portland has never exactly attracted big name free agents because it comparably lacks the three biggest things that star players look for: a large market, immediate championship potential, and history of success. Most of Gasol’s primary suitors to be can claim at least two of three.

True, the Trail Blazers may be able to check the “immediate championship potential” box if Gasol signed on without LaMarcus Aldridge leaving, but they would have to dismantle much of the team to make room. If Aldridge wants out, the Trail Blazers can check no boxes. Gasol would not agree to sign in Portland if Aldridge left. Without consolidation of talent, such a trek would just be lateral movement at best.

There is, however, one sign-and-trade scenario that could (“could”) unfold if the right dominoes fell. Supposing Jeff Green opted out of his contract this summer, leaving the Grizzlies once again without a small forward younger than 33, a replacement arrangement could be made involving Nicolas Batum. If the Trail Blazers packaged Batum with Meyers Leonard, and possibly another piece from a third team, the Grizzlies could sign-and-trade Gasol in exchange.

Bonuses for Memphis:

  • Batum’s expiring contract syncs up with the majority of their expirings. He is a strong contributor that they can either re-sign in 2016 or let walk to generate cap room in a free agency year that will be huge for them and the league as a whole.
  • Leonard’s ability to space the floor could help open up room for a 33 year-old Zach Randolph to remain a viable option on offense for a few more years.

Although this works in theory, there are still several problems. First, Gasol would have to desire trade to Portland. Second, the Trail Blazers would have to reconcile losing Leonard and all the progress he has made. Third, finding a third party to make salaries work is a major hassle. But perhaps most importantly, the Grizzlies would have to accept the short end of the stick. Batum and Leonard are solid players, but the Grizzlies have no incentive to trade a truly elite player like Gasol unless he makes it clear that he will not re-sign. Until there is some full on desperation brewing – no dice.

Apr 29, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Portland Trailblazers center Robin Lopez during warmups prior to facing the Memphis Grizzlies in game five of the first round of the NBA Playoffs. at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

So let’s revisit the notion of signing Gasol straight up. If both Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez left in free agency, it would be financially possible. However; the more talent leaves Portland to make room for Gasol, the more tenuous the Trail Blazers’ grasp becomes on the “immediate championship potential.” Aside from that, trying to lock both Gasol and Aldridge into max contracts before extending Damian Lillard is putting a lot of eggs in the TV deal money basket. The anticipated salary cap increase in 2016 can only accommodate so much.

There are a handful of other teams that can sign Gasol without all this fuss that are more attractive in the first place. Both the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks can offer enormous markets and history of success (by extension of Phil Jackson in NY), while the San Antonio Spurs can offer immediate championship potential and history of success, as can the Grizzlies themselves depending on how success is measured. All are anticipated to pursue Gasol to some degree.

In all likelihood, Gasol will remain in Memphis anyway. It’s where he played his high school ball, his parents still live there, and he loves the city itself. As long as he is comfortable with Randolph’s age, there is little reason for him to seek a new locale.

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