Free agency: Portland Trail Blazers designed for a win-win

The Portland Trail Blazers have a number of high profile players headed for free agency in July; so many that the roster could look almost entirely different in 2015-16. Ideally, that won’t happen, but the Trail Blazers are specifically designed to bounce back in the event of a mass exodus. Their contract situation breaks down as follows:

Unrestricted

LaMarcus Aldridge	2014-15 salary: $15,200,000
Wesley Matthews	2014-15 salary: $7,245,640
Robin Lopez	2014-15 salary: $5,340,229
Dorell Wright	2014-15 salary: $3,145,000
Alonzo Gee	2014-15 salary: $1,063,384

Restricted

Joel Freeland

2014-15 salary: $3,100,000

Player option

Arron Afflalo	2014-15 salary: $7,562,500
Steve Blake	2014-15 salary: $2,100,000

Non-guaranteed

Tim Frazier

2014-15 salary: $47,749

Partially guaranteed

Chris Kaman

2014-15 salary: $4,800,000

Guaranteed

Nicolas Batum	2014-15 salary: $11,390,500
Damian Lillard	2014-15 salary: $3,340,920
C.J. McCollum	2014-15 salary: $2,421,000
Meyers Leonard	2014-15 salary: $2,317,920
Allen Crabbe	2014-15 salary: $862,000

If the Trail Blazers realize their most realistic worst-case scenario and Aldridge or Matthews, among others, leave for brighter lights and bigger cities, there will be some definite regression in the short-term. However; thanks to the new TV deal and the anticipated salary cap spike after the 2015-16 season, there has never been a better time to capitalize on new contracts.

Supposing that a star or two depart, the Trail Blazers will have ample cap space to pursue young talent for multi-year deals. Players that receive reasonable contracts this summer will be bargains later on when the cap increases, because their overall cap hit will be a smaller percentage of the total cap in years to come.

For example, a player signed to a three year contract at $8M a season will take up roughly 12% of the cap ($67.1M) in their first year, but only about 9% of the cap (projected $89M) the following year and only about 7.4% of the cap (projected $108M) the year after that.

This means that multi-year pickups stand to be considerably worthwhile investments depending on how the contracts are negotiated. Looking at unrestricted free agents alone, there are plenty of acceptable role players for the Trail Blazers to consider:

Scoring punch: Lou Williams (TOR), Rodney Stuckey (IND), Gerald Green (PHX)

Solid wings: Danny Green (SAS), DeMarre Carroll (ATL), Marco Belinelli (SAS)

Defensive bigs: Omer Asik (NOP), Brandan Wright (PHX), Kosta Koufos (MEM)

And those are just some of the conservative options among immediately available players. If the Trail Blazers really want to make a splash they can look at guys like Greg Monroe or Paul Millsap. Who they target hinges largely on who they are able (or unable) to re-sign on their own.

Some of these players would be more expensive than others, but all could be relatively cheap in the long run with the right contract.

So although the Trail Blazers stand at a daunting precipice, there is cushioning at the bottom should they slip from the edge. They have a strong young core to build around. Proper building blocks that won’t handcuff Portland financially are plentiful if needed. An enormous setback could precede equally enormous growth in the long-term, starting with favorable distribution of resources.

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