Tim Duncan’s decision looms large over Portland

After 18 NBA seasons, Tim Duncan is still a supreme competitor in this league. Now 39 years old, however, he must weigh re-signing with the San Antonio Spurs against retirement. Even the seemingly ageless cannot play forever. No one could begrudge him for riding off into the sunset with five rings and a clean bill of health. But will he?

According to Matt Moore of CBS Sports, Duncan’s friend and former teammate Antonio Daniels expects Duncan to saddle up for another ride.

"“I would be very surprised if he retired. As long as he’s staying at a level where he feels like he’s relevant and competing, I can’t see it.”"

Somehow, some way, after all these years, “relevant” is still an understatement. Duncan earned his 15^th NBA All-Star selection this season, as well as several straggler votes for Defensive Player of the Year. Age aside for a moment, there is no reason for Duncan to look back at his level of play and think, “Yeah, it’s time to pack it in.” He can still make good money on a great team with at least one more legitimate shot at a championship. The odds that he sticks around may be higher than some think.

This is tremendously important for the Portland Trail Blazers as they prepare to re-sign franchise player LaMarcus Aldridge in free agency. Popular belief is that if Aldridge were to leave the Trail Blazers for any other team, it would be the Spurs. He is from Texas, he wants to win now, and the Spurs can offer him a chance to win multiple championships in his home state as Duncan’s predecessor. If Duncan remains a Spur, however, things get a little more complicated.

The Spurs are preparing to offer restricted free agent Kawhi Leonard a max contract come July, at which point they will have just enough cap space to knock on Aldridge’s door next—but not if Duncan wants back in at a fair price. What’s more, Duncan is not the only restricting factor. San Antonio needs to know the fate of Manu Ginobili and Danny Green before committing to pursuit of Portland’s star.

"In a perfect scenario, the Spurs have a full understanding of the futures of Duncan, Ginobili and Danny Green when they walk into a 12:01 a.m. ET meeting on July 1 with Leonard and his agent, Brian Elfus, in Los Angeles. The Spurs will offer Leonard a full maximum contract extension, get a commitment and turn themselves toward prying Aldridge back to his Texas roots. – Via Adrian Wojnarowski, Yahoo! Sports"

Apr 22, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) during the game against the Memphis Grizzlies in game two of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at FedExForum. Memphis Grizzlies beat Portland Trail Blazers 97 – 82 Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

The most feasible way for the Spurs to make a respectable run at Aldridge is for Duncan to retire, Ginobili to retire, and Green to re-sign for less than he is worth or walk. Some serious dismantling has to take place for Aldridge to be within their reach, and that is a lot to commit to with no guarantee that Aldridge would even accept their offer.

Of course, Duncan re-signing would not necessarily take Aldridge off the table. In theory, the Spurs could underpay Duncan the veteran’s minimum and push him back to the center position, but that would mean trying to find a trade partner to accept Tiago Splitter’s atrocious contract. It may not be ideal for Aldridge either, who is expected to desire a starring role more than a division of duties.

The more players want to stay in San Antonio, the less likely the Spurs will have room for Aldridge. Duncan could end up as the lynchpin. The way San Antonio’s off-season develops is just as important as how Portland’s does, with regard to Aldridge’s free agency. If the Spurs lock themselves out of the Aldridge race, the Trail Blazers become his most appealing option by a mile.

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