Mailbag: LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Love free agency

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@ripcityproject if LMA leaves…do Blazers make a run at Kevin Love?
— Michael VIP Lowery (@VIP_BlazeItUp) April 27, 2015

That depends. In order for the Portland Trail Blazers to pursue Kevin Love, he must first opt out of his contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers. He has one year left, but also has a player option this summer. This means that he can opt into a cozy $16.7 million of guaranteed cash in 2015-16 or test the waters in free agency to see if he can lock down a multi-year max contract.

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I am of the opinion that Love will delay his free agency. The new $24 billion TV deal takes effect after next season and the salary cap is anticipated to jump significantly at that time. Since the players union rejected the NBA’s smoothing proposal back in February, this could mean a (ballpark) spike from $68M in 2015-16 to about $90M in 2016-17. Consequently, players will have the opportunity to make obscene amounts of money. Love would be wise to stick it out one more year before locking himself into a multi-year contract, if only for the potential dollars.

Aside from that, he has voiced a desire to stay in Cleveland, and the Cavalier’s want to keep him aboard the S.S. Gilbert as long as possible. However; you know that words aren’t necessarily guarantees or we wouldn’t be talking about LaMarcus Aldridge’s free agency in the first place.

So let’s say both the Trail Blazers and Cavaliers enter the darkest timeline. Aldridge dons his spurs with thinly veiled foreshadowing so that it will hurt extra when he walks into the sunset; Love writes Dan Gilbert an open letter in comic sans, signed with a winky face for good measure; the two stars ease gingerly into the free agency pool like elder statesmen at a Jacuzzi. Where do the Trail Blazers go from there?

As it stands, the Trail Blazers have no starting caliber power forwards. Meyers Leonard is still too raw, though he is coming along nicely, and they moved Thomas Robinson at the trade deadline in hopes of postseason success. Without any draft picks this year, free agency is their best bet to right the ship. This summer’s top non-Aldridge free agent power forwards are:

Jan 30, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) shoots over Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) during the second half at Philips Arena. The Hawks defeated the Trail Blazers 105-99. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Kevin Love (player option)
Paul Millsap (unrestricted)
Josh Smith (unrestricted)
David West (player option)
Thaddeus Young (player option)

Love is certainly the most appealing option. He is a 26 year-old perennial All-Star with a deep game and questionable defense. He would fit right in. The problem is that he is too obviously the best choice. There will be teams with brighter lights in bigger cities calling his name. Even though Love was raised in the Portland area, he is far more likely to sign elsewhere. As long as we’re playing the nostalgic attachment game, the Los Angeles Lakers have an even stronger “coming home” claim to him anyway. Love was born in Santa Monica and played college ball at UCLA.

On the other hand, this does not change that the fundamental answer to your question is yes. Or at least it should be. If Aldridge decides that he has given too many years of his life to an organization that has yet to yield results, the Trail Blazers would be foolish not to send an offer sheet Love’s way—just in case.

That isn’t to say Love is their only hope should things fall apart. I have a suspicion that Millsap will generate a bit of buzz if the Atlanta Hawks somehow trip on their cakewalk to the Eastern Conference Finals. In the event that Aldridge leaves and Love is spoken for, Millsap is an intriguing, albeit older, option. So is Smith if you have a time machine and poor judgment. Realistically, if the Trail Blazers can’t lock in Aldridge, Love, or Millsap, they are looking at more drastic restructuring.

Fortunately, everything we have heard up to this point about Aldridge is of little substance. The beauty of unnamed sources declaring a tossup situation is that the story is irrefutable no matter what happens. If Aldridge stays, it might have been true. If Aldridge leaves, it might have been true. Players know damn well not to talk about this stuff, so in all likelihood the original conversation didn’t happen or was taken out of context. There is no way of knowing because eventual retrospect is negated by the 50/50 nature of the claim.