If you’re looking for good news heading into the playoffs, take comfort in knowing that—at least in theory—every team in the NBA playoffs this season is quite well rested. For the first time in the shot clock era (excluding lockout shortened seasons) no NBA player has logged more than 3,000 total minutes over the regular season. Damian Lillard did finish fourth in total minutes played this year with 2,885, but even that is still 150 fewer minutes than he logged last season. The Trail Blazers already lean heavily on their starters in the regular season, so expect them to log significant minutes in these playoffs.
Total Minutes Played by Blazers’ Players during Regular Season
Big production out of the Trail Blazers’ starters will likely be a necessity against the Memphis Grizzlies. Defensively, the Grizzlies match the Trail Blazers’ offensive profile quite well. They give up just 0.84 points per possession (PPP) to the roll-man in pick and roll situations—the best in the NBA, and 0.15 PPP fewer than the Trail Blazers average on offense.
Across the board, Memphis defends the various play types identified in the NBA’s database better than the Portland offense executes those plays in that they allow fewer PPP than the Trail Blazers’ offense averages. The one glaring weakness in the Grizzlies defense is defending cutters. Whether the cuts are via slipped ball-screens, back cuts, or hard cuts from the weakside wings, Memphis seems to get beat on these plays more than other elite defenses.
This susceptibility is due in part to how hard the Grizzlies’ wings show toward the strong side, in an attempt to pack the lane and cut off driving lanes, as well as the relative immobility of both Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph in defending bigs that dive to the rim after setting perimeter screens. They give up one of the highest field goal percentages in the league (62.9%) on cutting plays, foul quite frequently on cuts, and allow opponents to score on 61.9% of cutting plays.
Unfortunately, the Trail Blazers were the least cutting team in the league this season per NBA.com. Only three active Trail Blazers finished in the top 50% of the league in points per possession via the cut—Lillard (1.27), Nicolas Batum (1.25), LaMarcus Aldridge (1.21).
Another cause for concern is Memphis’ ability to defend isolation. While Portland is truly a middle-of-the-road team in terms of isolation frequency, the Trail Blazers finished the regular season tied for fourth in PPP out of isolation (0.88). As of late, C.J. McCollum has been a wonder with the ball in his hands. In spite of early season struggles, McCollum finished the season as the Trail Blazers’ fourth best isolation scorer, putting points on the board in 38.1% of his total isolation possessions. Among Trail Blazers guards, only Lillard (45.4%) scored at a higher rate than McCollum this season.
As a team, Memphis allowed just 0.83 PPP on isolation plays, and their wings were somewhat surprisingly staunch in isolation with Courtney Lee (0.60), Nick Calathes (0.64), Vince Carter (0.67), and Tony Allen (.71) all in the top 25% of league in PPP allowed in isolation.
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Memphis dominated Portland 4-0 during the regular season, winning by an average of 8.5 points, but the Trail Blazers only faced the Grizzlies once with a full roster. Aldridge played just 30.9 minutes per game, in three games against the Grizzlies. Batum, Steve Blake, and Lillard are the only Trail Blazers to play all four games against Memphis this season, so looking at the two teams head-to-head statistics is more than a little misleading.
Now for something a little more promising, Memphis doesn’t excel at controlling their opponents shot selection. The Trail Blazers’ shot distribution doesn’t vary exceedingly against the Grizzlies when compared to the rest of the league. Sure, there is a little more red on Portland’s chart against Memphis, but the distribution is a bigger deal in my opinion.
Blazers vs Everyone —- Blazers vs Grizzlies
Trail Blazers vs. All (left), Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies (right)
Memphis will force Portland to play a slower pace than the Trail Blazers would prefer—that’s what they do—so, Portland will already be forced to adjust its style of play in one aspect this series. But the Trail Blazers will likely get to shoot the type of shots they like to shoot, which is good. Unfortunately, those shots will likely be more tightly contested than Portland experienced throughout the season.
The amount of unknowns in this series is extraordinarily high. Each team is battling injuries, late season slumps, and have not played one another with either teams’ full compliment of players this season. Likely, this will be a hotly contested matchup decided by on-the-fly adjustments involving personnel and style of play. More likely, however, this series will depend upon the health of each team’s most important players.