Mailbag: Should C.J. McCollum start over Arron Afflalo?
By David MacKay
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@ripcityproject Should CJ McCollum become stater and put Afflalo as 6th man to establish CJ as our XFactor for the playoffs? I think so.
— Leuz Dolla 🇸🇳 🇬🇲 🇬🇳 (@Asallsince1993) April 6, 2015
Actually, that has been a point of friendly discussion between myself and some of the guys here at Rip City Project. C.J. McCollum has certainly shown drastic improvement in recent games, so I can see the case for making him a starter. However; I am personally of the opinion that he should remain on the bench for a variety of reasons.
First of all, there is defense to consider. While McCollum is a passable defender, he is a dizzying step down from Arron Afflalo. In matchups with guys like Joe Johnson, Klay Thompson, and Monta Ellis (all remaining on the schedule), McCollum would get eaten alive. If there were any offensive gains to starting McCollum, they would be more than erased by defensive losses.
This is partially because McCollum is marginally undersized. You can’t put a combo-guard on a strong jump shooter or a post-up scorer and expect it to go well unless you’re fielding a specialist like Avery Bradley. Starting McCollum with the defensively incomplete Damian Lillard in the backcourt is asking for trouble.
Granted, the duo would be a lot of fun on the offensive end. McCollum is a talented spot-up shooter that could take advantage of Lillard’s gravitational pull rather nicely. But, that is something that Afflalo can do too, and ignoring the defensive end would be a mistake. After all, defense is half of basketball, as unglamorous and forgotten as it is at times.
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Secondly, McCollum works exceptionally well in his current role. A transfer to the starting lineup would not come with a direct transfer of production. Getting 10 or 15 points off the bench is extremely valuable. It can be argued that Afflalo could do the same thing, which is true, but why cede a high level of defensive efficiency for little to no gain on the scoreboard?
As long as McCollum is putting up the numbers that make him appear worthy of a starting role, there is really no need to move him from the one he is in. Besides, he can still be an X-factor doing what he does now. In fact, when I think of an X-factor, I think of the type of effective sixth man he is becoming. He can absolutely be important to a playoff run as a second unit spark.
Thinking more long-term, there are positive and negative implications of starting McCollum. A little trial by fire could boost his development nicely, but what message does that send to Afflalo? The Trail Blazers may need Afflalo to stick around in free agency since Wesley Matthews’ post-Achilles tear status is to be determined.
Let’s say the Trail Blazers bump Afflalo back to the bench in favor of a 23 year-old ‘in-and-out-of-rotation’ player for the upcoming playoffs. I don’t think Afflalo would even consider opting into another season in Portland unless they won the NBA championship. But hey, if the Trail Blazers brought home rings with McCollum as a starter, I would gladly eat crow.
Mar 13, 2015; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Arron Afflalo (4) shoots against the Detroit Pistons during the third quarter at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports
For the most part, I just don’t see McCollum being ready. Due to multiple injuries, he has played just over one season’s worth of games in the NBA (95 total), and about 24 minutes in garbage time playoff situations. Afflalo, on the other hand, is a veteran in his eighth season who has been to the NBA playoffs five times and gotten as far as the Eastern Conference Finals during his rookie season with the Detroit Pistons. Experience often makes all the difference in the Playoffs, and the difference between McCollum and Afflalo is astronomical.
I am content with keeping McCollum on the bench for the time being. There may come a time where he takes the reins, but I would rather that time be a few years down the road.