C.J. McCollum’s emergence as a reliable bench scorer
C.J. McCollum‘s rapid ascension makes him the player to watch as the Trail Blazers’ season winds down.
Heading into last night’s home game against the New Orleans Pelican, the Portland Trail Blazers had a stranglehold on the fourth seed in the playoffs by virtue of winning the Northwest Division. However; this alone does not guarantee home court advantage. The Blazers are currently a half game behind both the Los Angeles Clippers (5) and are tied with San Antonio Spurs (6) in the standings with a record of 50-26.
Los Angeles, Houston, and San Antonio are Portland’s most likely first round matchups, and depending upon the next six games, Portland could play its first playoff game on the road, even as the fourth seed. The Blazers’ remaining schedule is certainly more difficult than either of these team, but they have previously played their final six opponents fairly well this season.
The Trail Blazers currently hold positive efficiency differentials against four of their remaining six opponents, the exceptions being Golden State and Memphis. The team has fallen off significantly without Wesley Matthews in the lineup. With Matthews in the lineup the Blazers boast a net rating of 6.0, which would be good enough for fourth in the league today. The Blazers’ net rating is just 3.7 without Matthews.
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Likely, the Blazers’ would be in a much more precarious situation entering the playoffs were it not for the play of C.J. McCollum. Only Steve Blake—who has an absolutely ridiculous +/- of 23.5 points over the last 10 games—holds a higher +/- than McCollum (7.3) over the same stretch of games. His production off the bench has helped the Blazers to a 111.2 offensive rating, compared to their season average of 108.6.
McCollum has provided a somewhat surprising, but very welcomed spark off the bench. Over the last 10 games, McCollum is averaging 12.1 points per game in just 21 minutes. More importantly, his true shooting percentage in that time has climbed to 61.2 percent—up from his season average of 52.9 percent.
Some might bristle at the sample size but McCollum has been, by a significant margin, the most diverse scorer on the team as of late. His shot chart over the last 10 games illustrates how creative an offensive player McCollum can be for the Blazers.
Not only is McCollum playing remarkably efficient basketball, but he is doing so with the third highest usage rate on the team (again, over the last 10 games)—trailing only the obvious duo of Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. It is rather remarkable to see a player’s usage rate increase by over six percentage points along with such significant increases in efficiency. With extended minutes, McCollum has emerged as the offensive leader of the Blazers’ second unit late in the season.
In the last 10 games, McCollum accounts for 26.2 percent of Blazers’ points, 42.9 percent of steals, and is drawing fouls at a rate six percentage points better than his season average.
Look for Head Coach Terry Stotts to ride the hot hand, but hold out hope that McCollum doesn’t run out of fuel prior to the playoffs. The loss of Matthews likely puts the Blazers’ title hopes in serious danger, but McCollum might just be the prolific bench scorer the team has been looking for all along. McCollum is definitely the player to watch over the final six games of the regular season.
[Graphics via StatMuse Beta]