2015 NBA Playoffs: Trail Blazers’ best shot at home court advantage
By David MacKay
The Portland Trail Blazers have clinched the Northwest Division for the first time since the 1999 lockout season. They are now guaranteed fourth seed or higher in the Western Conference for the 2015 NBA Playoffs. However; this standing does not automatically come with home court advantage in the first round. They must finish with at least the fourth-best record in the Conference to receive that benefit. As it stands, the Trail Blazers own the sixth-best record.
Teams that have clinched a playoff berth (West)
| Team | Record | Games behind |
| (1) Golden State Warriors | 62-13 | N/A |
| (2) Memphis Grizzlies | 52-24 | 10.5 |
| (3) Houston Rockets | 52-24 | 10.5 |
| (5) Los Angeles Clippers | 50-26 | 12.5 |
| (6) San Antonio Spurs | 50-26 | 12.5 |
| (4) Portland Trail Blazers | 49-26 | 13.0 |
Mar 11, 2015; Portland, OR, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) dribbles the ball past Portland Trail Blazers forward Allen Crabbe (23) during the second quarter at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports
So let’s break down their chances of moving up the line a little bit.
Mathematically speaking, the Warriors cannot be caught. They could lose out and still finish with the best record in the Western Conference. We are going to ignore them.
The Grizzlies and Rockets each have two and a half games on the Trail Blazers. With only six games remaining on either’s schedule, catching them is pretty unlikely on the surface.
The Clippers and Spurs are each one win ahead of the Trail Blazers, but because of some inclement weather that forced schedule changes in January, the Trail Blazers have played one less game. Both of these teams are catchable.
Here is where it gets interesting.
Tiebreakers
| Team | vs. Portland Trail Blazers | Tiebreaker owner |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 4-0 | TBD |
| Houston Rockets | 1-2 | POR |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 3-1 | POR |
| San Antonio Spurs | 1-3 | POR |
As division winners, the Trail Blazers have the tiebreak over non-division winners. This means that the Trail Blazers will have the tiebreaker over the Spurs, Rockets, and Clippers, and possibly the Grizzlies but not if they clinch the Southwest division.
This is especially important since the Rockets and Spurs still need to face each other twice. It is impossible for both of them to emerge unscathed, so the Trail Blazers benefit from this luck of the schedule rather nicely. Portland will either get a free game on both, or two free games on one while hopefully winning their own games as to not give ground to the other.
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The trouble with a 2-0 split in either direction here, is that the winning team would get that two-game boost that doesn’t help the Trail Blazers at all. In this case, it remains crucial that the Trail Blazers don’t finish with a worse record than the Clippers. If, for instance, the Rockets put the Spurs away and become near uncatchable, the Trail Blazers have to make sure they at least match the Clippers and Spurs to finish with home court advantage.
While this seems doable, it really isn’t Portland’s best chance of moving up. Check out how weak the Clippers’ schedule is compared to the Trail Blazers’:
Chances of matching or surpassing the Clips are pretty slim. Their only matchup against a playoff team comes against Memphis at home, while Portland still must travel through Golden State, Oklahoma City, and Dallas. Even if the Warriors rest players when the Trail Blazers come to town, there is little wiggle room for the Trail Blazers to make up games elsewhere.
So I postulate that the Trail Blazers’ best chance to finish with the fourth-best record revolves around the Rockets and Spurs. The most favorable way for the cards to fall is for the Spurs to beat the Rockets twice. At that point, as long as the Trail Blazers continue to win, they would be relatively even with the teams against which they for sure own the tiebreak.
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Having home court advantage would be a huge boon for the Trail Blazers in the playoffs. On the season, their home and away splits are 30-8 and 19-18 respectively. They must overcome their struggles on the road in the coming weeks so that they are minimized when it really counts. As division leaders, the first tiebreak is in their favor, so they need to keep pace with their opposition in order for that perk to pay off.