If you’ve been asleep all NBA season, the Portland Trail Blazers have entered the home stretch. There is about one month left in the regular season, and the Trail Blazers sit alone in third place in the West, two games behind the Memphis Grizzlies for second and half a game of ahead of the Houston Rockets for fourth.
Don’t get too excited, though, Blazer fans. Portland is only three games ahead of the seventh-seed in the West with 17 games still to play. It would take a pretty steady dive to knock Portland all the way back to seventh, but this is the West, after all.
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It’s crucial that Portland finish in the top four to lock up home-court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. Home court matters; especially to a team like Portland that has had issues on the road. This season, the Trail Blazers are 28-6 at home this season, which is the third-best home record in the NBA. Portland is also 16-14 on the road, which is average, at best, among the playoff teams. Needless to say, that one extra home game per series could be huge throughout the playoffs.
While I do think it’s important to get an extra home game in any series, the matchup is what will be most important for the Trail Blazers in the playoffs.
As it stands now, Portland would see the San Antonio Spurs in the first round, but as the race for second is so tight between the Trail Blazers, Grizzlies, and Rockets, and the race is even tighter for fifth between the Los Angeles Clippers, Spurs, and Dallas Mavericks, the playoff race is basically just heating up.
The standings are going to change so much from here on out that it’s not worth the time to start analyzing just yet; however, there are three teams the Trail Blazers should try to avoid in the playoffs based on matchups.
Feb 25, 2015; Portland, OR, USA; San Antonio Spurs guard Danny Green (14) dribbles around Portland Trail Blazers guard Arron Afflalo (4) as Spurs center Aron Baynes (16) sets a screen at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports
San Antonio Spurs
This is probably the most likely of the three teams Portland doesn’t want to play but could meet in the first round.
After watching the San Antonio Spurs go toe-to-toe with the Cleveland Cavaliers last Thursday, I’m starting to get the feeling that San Antonio is a legitimate contender to win the West again.
Obviously, the Spurs are a year older and have struggled this season, but they appear to be hitting their groove, especially Spurs’ point guard Tony Parker.
In their last ten games, the Spurs are 7-3, winning six of their last seven games. If Kyrie Irving didn’t drop a career-high 57 on the Spurs, they’d have cruised to their seventh straight victory.
The Spurs are also a bad matchup for Portland because of their depth, especially on the frontline. Last season in the playoffs, San Antonio surgically dismantled Portland’s defense. That same effortlessness hasn’t been there this season, but there is more than a chance it could happen again. It wasn’t just one guy or the starters doing it either. It was literally an entire nine-man rotation destroying Portland.
In the five-game series, San Antonio’s bench outscored Portland’s bench 220 to 77. That likely wouldn’t happen again if the Trail Blazers and Spurs met in the 2015 playoffs; however, San Antonio still has a much better bench Portland.
Dec 23, 2014; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) attempts a shot against Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) and forward Perry Jones (3) during the second quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder
On paper, I think Portland-OKC would be a great series, but from Portland’s perspective, there’s no way you want to draw Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in the first round.
Legitimately, OKC is a top four team in the West with Durant and Westbrook healthy, and possibly top two. The only way Portland would get Oklahoma City is going to be in a 2-7 matchup or a 3-6 matchup. It’s pretty unlikely OKC could climb to the 6-seed, but it’s still possible, even with Serge Ibaka recovering from his upcoming knee procedure.
I just hate the Oklahoma City matchup for anyone in the playoffs. It’s unfair that they’ve suffered so many injuries, but it would be even more unfair for Portland or any of the top seeds to draw Oklahoma City in the first round, especially Golden State.
"“Hey, Warriors, to reward your great season, we’d like you to play two of the best six players in the league in the first round. Thanks.”— NBA, probably"
Jan 17, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph (50) handles the ball against Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) during the game at FedExForum. Memphis Grizzlies beats Portland Trail Blazers 102 – 98. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
Memphis Grizzlies
There is little chance Portland and Memphis could meet in the first round, but I’m worried about a possible Memphis matchup in the second round. I think Memphis and Portland will finish as the second and third seed. Those feel like the spots they each deserve after the way they’ve played this season.
If they were each able to get through the first round, which is a big “if,” Memphis is a terrible matchup for Portland. Memphis has the defenders to make life extremely difficult for Portland’s offense, which tends to utilize advantages and mismatches in the post.
Memphis also has the control and patience to wear the Trail Blazers down on the interior. Let’s be honest; Robin Lopez is a good defender, but he’s nowhere strong enough to keep Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph from establishing position in the low post. Now, with Jeff Green, the Grizzlies have their offensive weapons to do some real damage in the playoffs.
When the game slows down in the playoffs, the Grizzlies are going to be the toughest team to beat because of how solid their defense is and how multifaceted their offensive attack has become.
Other than those three teams, I like Portland’s chance to beat anyone else in the Western Conference Playoffs. I mean, it’s going to be ridiculously tough, but the Trail Blazers have that toughness to advance.
Next: Blazers: Matchups to hope for in the 2015 NBA Playoffs