Wesley Matthews: Career implications of Achilles tear

The outpouring of support for Wesley Matthews in this difficult time has been tremendous. Fans, players, and members of the press from all across the league have taken to social media in wishing him a speedy recovery from his torn left Achilles. Matthews will miss the remainder of the 2014-15 NBA season, but the seriousness of the injury does not stop there. Too many know how difficult his journey will be through the rest of his basketball career.

Feb 14, 2015; New York, NY, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Wesley Matthews (2) during the 2015 NBA All Star Three Point Contest competition at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

As much as we love Matthews, we have to look at what this could mean for him in the long term. Injuries are the worst part of sports, but they happen, and this one has some major consequences.

Realistically speaking, we have probably already seen Matthews’ absolute peak now. By the time he completes his 8-12 month recovery, he will be 29 years old. There is no happy ending to this story where Matthews returns better than before to improve upon where he left off. He may be close for a time, but the upcoming repairs to his body will necessitate change in his game. As noted by Chris Towers of CBS Sports, history has not been kind to those who have sustained such injuries.

There is one player in recent history to have mirrored his former self for even a few fleeting seasons after recovering from a torn Achilles: Dominique Wilkins. Tearing his Achilles at 32 years old, he was able to muster up two more years as an NBA All-Star before seeing his efficiency and production fall off a cliff. For most others, the injury is instantly career altering.

Take Elton Brand, for example. He tore his Achilles in 2008, when he was 28 years old, just like Matthews. He went from being a 20-and-10 guy to a 13-and-7 guy overnight. Most were even less fortunate. From the young and promising, like Trail Blazers’ 2010 draftee Elliot Williams, to the practiced and proven, like Mehmet Okur, Achilles injuries have forced players out of the spotlight and into irrelevance almost immediately.

“I’m frustrated. You say everything happens for a reason. While I was up in that tube, I was just thinking, ‘What was this reason? What was it?’ I can’t find it right now.” – Wesley Matthews

That is part of why the coming years could be utterly terrifying for not just Matthews. This season alone we have seen Xavier Henry, Anderson Varejao, and Brandon Jennings all suffer torn Achilles tendons. However; the non-physical ramifications are by far the worst for Matthews because he is in the middle of an enormous contract year.

Prior to injury, a free agent Matthews was anticipated to sign (in Portland or elsewhere) for something like $44M over the course of four years—roughly comparable to the deal Kyle Lowry signed in Toronto last summer. That is now improbable. If you remove names and faces from the equation, and just look at Matthews as an asset, no responsible General Manager is going to lock up $12M a season on a soon-to-be 29 year-old with a torn Achilles.

This brings about a painful question: Will the Trail Blazers front office fight for Matthews in free agency? It is generally accepted that if the Trail Blazers were to attempt to keep both Matthews and teammate Arron Afflalo, the team would be pushed deep into luxury tax territory and would therefore prefer just one or the other. If Afflalo exercises his player option and opts out to earn more money, but wishes to stay, you almost have to re-sign him by default.

Even if Afflalo merely opts in, it could mean parting with Matthews. The Trail Blazers have the contracts of free agents LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez to think about as well. If, say, the New York Knicks (who are known for coveting Matthews) make him a lucrative offer, there is a reasonable chance that the Trail Blazers would not compete.