Damian Lillard’s shooting woes revisited: Shift in defensive pressure

It is beginning to feel like the “Damian Lillard is slumping” narrative has reached critical mass. Emerging as a plot line for NBA conversations in the weeks prior to the All-Star break, some analysts even questioned whether his shooting woes were significant enough to justifiably leave him off the All-Star roster. With the home stretch of the NBA season approaching, Lillard’s shooting struggles continue.

Just look at the difference in his 2014-15 shot chart prior to the new year (Left) versus since January (right):

Since ringing in 2015, Damian Lillard is shooting just 27.5 percent from three-point range. His overall shooting percentage has fallen from 45.8 percent to 40.1 percent over the Blazers’ 23 games in the new year. He’s slipped out of the league’s top 5 in three-point shots made and his effective field goal percentage has dropped nearly eight points.

The month of February has been particularly rough on Lillard. Never before in his NBA career has Lillard’s made-shot distribution changed so dramatically, so rapidly. In February, Lillard is scoring 53.5 percent of his total points inside the arc—by far the highest percentage for any month since his rookie year.

Even more strikingly, 45.9 percent of Lillard’s total points in the month of February have been scored in the paint. Not only is that his highest percentage of the season, that number is 7.7 percent higher than any previous month of Lillard’s NBA career.

Feb 11, 2015; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) goes up for a dunk against the Los Angeles Lakers during the third quarter at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports

On the surface, such a shift in distribution might seem like a positive one, indicative of a more aggressive, rim-attacking Lillard. Sure, he is taking more interior shots but he is drawing the same amount of fouls per game and has attempted only 0.4 more free throws per game in February, compared to his season averages. That 45.9 percent is a bit misleading. He’s scoring more of his points in the paint, but he’s not necessarily attacking the basket more deliberately than usual.

Opposing team’s seem to have shifted their defensive strategies against the Blazers, specifically to limit Lillard’s open three-point attempts.

Look at the Blazers’ most recent game against the Spurs as a prime example of that shifting coverage. The Blazers’ love to put Lillard in a two-man game with LaMarcus Aldridge on the block to discourage the double-team from Lillard’s defender. It’s a great two-man set: double, and Lillard shoots an open three, or leave Aldridge to go one-on-one in the post. Neither is a particularly appealing option for a defense.

But in this last game San Antonio—who ordinarily plays Aldridge straight up—sent a flurry of double teams from the weak side, leaving the opposite corner unguarded instead of giving Lillard even the slightest bit of room to shoot a three on an Aldridge pass out of the post.

By cutting off the strong-side pass out of the post, Aldridge is forced to kick the ball out to the top of the key to start the Blazers’ swinging the ball to the opposite corner, occasionally providing the defense enough time to recover. Team’s have not been defending the Blazers’ three-point attempts any better than usual, but are absolutely smothering Lillard.

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22.5 percent of the team’s total three-point attempts in February have been closely guarded (defender less than 4 feet from the shooter), compared to 18.1 percent prior to the beginning of the month. But over the Blazers’ last eight games, a remarkable 42 percent of Lillard’s three-point attempts have been closely guarded, whereas only 28 percent of his attempts came under such duress previously.

I watched every Lillard three-point attempt from the month of February and counted just seven uncontested (no defender with a hand up) shots out of his 50 attempts. The Blazers have long relied upon the three-point shooting to dissuade teams from doubling Aldridge, but the recent increase in weak side double teams being sent Aldridge’s way seems to be reducing the number of open looks for the Blazers’ second most prolific three-point shooter.

While Lillard’s recent shooting woes are doubtless the result of just a single change in defensive strategy, the lack of space that Lillard has found lately has to be concerning. As the team’s second leading scorer and the league’s second most prolific fourth quarter scorer, Lillard’s ability to take and make big shots is integral to the Blazers’ success.

Next: Batum trending up since All-Star Break, Afflalo's arrival