The Trail Blazers fell to the Grizzlies on Sunday as their mid-season slide continued. In their last 16 games, the Trail Blazers are 6-10, far from the blistering pace at which they started the season. While the whole team has been having problems, no player exemplifies this recent slump more than Damian Lillard.
In these last 16 games, starting with the January 16th loss to the Spurs until the most recent loss to the Grizzlies, Lillard has been having the roughest patch of his season. Perhaps the most important weapon in his arsenal, Lillard’s three-point shot has largely abandoned him. During this stretch, he is shooting an almost unbelievable 26-115 on threes (22.6%).
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Lillard is a great shooter, and he has proven it time and time again. Yet, despite his past success, the ugly truth of his recent regression is right there staring at us. This recent shooting stretch has been so poor that Lillard’s three-point percentage on the season has dropped all the way to 33.8%(!). Prior to that game against the Spurs, Lillard had been shooting 38.9% from deep.
No stretch better epitomizes this than the back-to-back games against the Hawks and the Bucks, when Lillard shot a combined 2-19 (10.5%) on threes. To be fair, the Bucks are second in the league in defense, and the Hawks sixth, so scoring is always hard against them, but this is still not something you want to see from one of your team’s best players.
While his overall shooting percentage has also dropped significantly (from 45.4% before this stretch to 37.4% during it), his two-point shooting percentage has largely remained static. Lillard shot 50.6% on within the arc before the slump, and is still shooting a comparable 48.9% during.
Jan 21, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) reacts against the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center. The Suns defeated the Blazers 118-113. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
This signals that Lillard’s problems have largely been confined to his deep game. Since this is such a large part of his overall game, it is drastically affecting his ability to make an impact. With that being said, watching these recent games, nothing seems to be inherently amiss. The shots he is taking don’t seem too different than what he was taking and making earlier in the season.
There are still the occasional heat checks, and some other shots taken too hastily, but for the most part, they just won’t fall. Some of the games have come against good defensive teams, which is always an important context to remember, but that can’t explain everything.
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It is always iffy to speculate on what might be happening. For example, maybe there is an easy explanation, such as a sprained finger that Lillard is simply playing through. Lillard is famous for not missing games, and even a minor injury as seemingly innocuous as a sprained finger can affect elite shooters. From the outside, we honestly really don’t know – maybe he really is just in a slump and that’s all there is to it. The NBA season is 82 games long, and there are guaranteed to be stretches mixed in where the shots just don’t fall.
Personally, I think he may just be pressing a bit too much. Robin Lopez was still injured when this slump began, and LaMarcus Aldridge originally tore up his thumb right in the middle of the slide. With two starters out at times, it was only natural for Lillard to feel like he needed to shoulder more of the load. It’s when you start trying too hard, though, that problems arise, throwing off your own natural tempo. Maybe he has yet to re-find his.
If that does turn out to be the problem, then the Trail Blazers are in luck. For the most part, the Trail Blazers are getting healthier and healthier, so maybe Lillard can slide back into a more comfortable role. If Lillard is truly just slumping, the Trail Blazers need him to snap out of it now. They have only 27 games left, and have been rapidly losing ground in the playoff race. If they want to secure prime positioning for the playoffs, they will need Lillard to be at his best as soon as possible.