Now that the 2015 NBA All-Star Game is over, the Portland Trail Blazers have officially reached the “down the stretch” portion of the season.
We talk all season long about whether or not the Trail Blazers have what it takes “down the stretch” to close out the division, get a top-four seed, and secure home court advantage in the NBA playoffs. Now, it’s time to see if they do indeed have what it takes to make that all happen.
Western Conference Playoff Breakdown
1. Golden State (42-9)
2. Memphis Grizzlies (39-14)
3. Houston Rockets (36-17)
4. Portland Trail Blazers (36-17)
5. Dallas Mavericks (36-19)
6. Los Angeles Clippers (35-19)
7. San Antonio Spurs (34-19)
8. Phoenix Suns (29-25)
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9. Oklahoma City Thunder (28-25)
10. New Orleans Pelicans (27-26)
As you can see, Portland is in a very good spot in the Western Conference. Currently, the Trail Blazers are tied for third with the Houston Rockets. Although the Trail Blazers are only 6-9 over their last 15 games, the first 50-plus games could not have gone much better than they did.
Sure, we wish Robin Lopez, Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Joel Freeland were healthy. We wish Damian Lillard and Batum weren’t going through prolonged shooting slumps. But, in the West– the ridiculously good West– Portland’s first 53 games have been successful.
What’s Working Against the Trail Blazers
While the first 53 games were great, there are a few things standing in between Portland a top seed in the in West.
Schedule
Portland played one of the easiest schedules in the league over the course of the first 53 games. Now, the schedule starts to get a lot harder. Over the last 29 games, Portland plays 15 games against teams that are currently in the playoffs. That could be a problem.
Road Record
The Trail Blazers are 23-5 at the Moda Center this season, but away from home, they have struggled to a mere 13-12 record on the road.
Because of math, Portland has 13 home games remaining and 16 games on the road. So, not only does the schedule get a little tougher, but the Trail Blazers also take the show on the road more often than they are home.
Hopefully, they can figure out how to resolve their road woes as the season progresses.
Injuries
Well, the Trail Blazers’ injury luck from last year finally wore off, and they got bit hard by the injury bug this season.
Lopez missed six weeks with a broken hand. Aldridge has a torn ligament in his thumb. Batum battled knee issues at the beginning of the season and also has a torn ligament in his wrist. Freeland is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. McCollum missed a month with a broken finger. It’s all been bad.
Realistically, Portland is a major injury away from falling to the back of the playoff race altogether.
What’s Working in the Trail Blazers Favor
Division Games
It’s pretty clear that the Northwest Division is easily the worst division in the West; especially compared to the Southwest Division that doesn’t have a single team under .500.
Portland is 7-1 in division games this season, which means they also have eight games remaining against the Utah Jazz (3), Oklahoma City Thunder (2), Minnesota Timberwolves (2), and Denver Nuggets (1).
If the Trail Blazers can take care of business in those division games and go 7-1 or 6-2 over that stretch again, that neutralize any team gunning for their spot in the top four.
There’s a flip-side to this category, also.
In the Southwest, most of the teams have six games left in the division. They’re all about even through their first ten games. If those teams continue to slug it out in the division, that’s going to only help the Trail Blazers’ chances of getting ahead and staying ahead in the playoff race.
Chemistry
Even though the Trail Blazers have been losing in the last 15 games, Portland is 4-1 over their last five and really should be 5-0.
Comparing Portland to other teams like the Los Angeles Clippers, when you watch the Trail Blazers you can tell that they have some truly excellent team chemistry.
There is no bad body language when someone takes a bad shot or anything like that. Everyone is pretty calm, cool, and collected throughout the game. You may or may not value that less than I do, but I think that it is going to make all the difference over the next 29 games and into the playoffs.
Eight-Game Lead in Division
So, if the Trail Blazers win the division, they are locked into, at least, the four-seed in the Western Conference Playoffs. However; if they didn’t have the fourth-best record, they would not secure home court advantage. That’s just how it goes in the NBA.
Right now, the Trail Blazers have an eight-game lead in the division over the Thunder with only 29 games to play. I can’t imagine the Trail Blazers blowing that big of a lead to lose the division lead, but I guess it’s possible.
For instance, let’s say the Trail Blazers went 14-15 to end the season. I doubt that would happen, but just for fun, let’s pretend that it does. In that case, Portland would finish the season 50-32.
For OKC to tie Portland in the division, they’d have to finish the season with a 22-7 record over the last 29 games. While I think it’s possible that could happen, I do not think that’s likely to happen at all.