The Portland Trail Blazers got a much needed win in Houston, but should they be nervous about where they stand among the upper echelon?
After blowing an 11-point lead in the final two minutes against the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday night, the Portland Trail Blazers bounced back for a solid road victory against the Houston Rockets.
In the game, LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard, per usual, led the Trail Blazers in scoring with 26 points and 23 points, respectively. Portland survived an onslaught by MVP candidate James Harden, who just missed a triple-double with 45 points, eight assists, and nine rebounds.
The win broke the Trail Blazers eight-game road losing streak, and they have now won three out of their last four games. However; after losing nine of their last 14 games, should the Trail Blazers be worried about how they measure up to other successful teams?
Short answer: Yes! Here is why.
Record vs. Good Teams
The Trail Blazers have played 29 games against teams currently in the playoff race, and against those teams, they have a sub-.500 record.
Now, you can point to all of Portland’s injury problems as an excuse for those losses, and that is a totally fair observation, but the truth remains that Portland has not played well against the best teams in the NBA.
- 5-10 vs. Western Conference playoff teams
- 9-5 vs. Eastern Conference playoff teams
- 14-15 vs. Total playoff teams
If Portland were in the East, I’d be incredibly stoked on how they’re doing against the top teams in Eastern Conference. Yet, in the West, the Trail Blazers have only won 1/3 games against their most direct competitors.
That’s just not good enough.
On top of that, the Trail Blazers are only 13-12 on the road. If they struggle this much against the teams in the playoff race and they continue to struggle this much on the road, there is little hope for the deep playoff run we would like to anticipate. Based on last year’s success, this would be an early out would be hugely disappointing.
Feb 7, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) dribbles the ball past Dallas Mavericks guard Monta Ellis (11) during the second half at the American Airlines Center. The Mavericks defeated the Trail Blazers 111-101 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Damian Lillard’s shooting slump
Against Houston, Lillard played one of his better offensive games this season, at least from an efficiency perspective.
He finished the game with 23 points on 6-of-10 shooting and 10-of-11 from the free throw line. He also grabbed five boards, dished out five assists, and only turned the ball over once. That’s a very solid performance for Lillard, who has had difficulty finding his stroke lately.
Lillard is still struggling from 3-point range. Against Houston, he only made one of his five 3-point attempts. Entering the game, Lillard was only 6-of-40 from deep in his last five games.
Shooting is going to come and go, but Lillard may be showing signs of fatigue. With 30 games left, then playoff games, if he is tired now, imagine what he could look like down the stretch. It is most likely just an extended slump, but it is definitely an area of concern for the Trail Blazers.
Overall Health
The Trail Blazers got Robin Lopez back this week, which will help tremendously, but Aldridge and Nicolas Batum both have injuries that aren’t going to get much better over the course of the season. That’s something Portland is just going to have to deal with, and it’s what I’m most fearful about with 30 games left.
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As the season wears on and Portland’s first unit has to log more minutes against the best teams in the West, the playoffs edge closer. The fact of the matter is that (with the exception of Joel Freeland) the Trail Blazers are not going to get more healthy than they are right now, and that’s scary going forward, considering other teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, and Dallas Mavericks, all have significant injuries that they are dealing with as well, but their players have a better chance to reclaim 100% health.
If Portland is going to turn this losing skid around, someone else has to step up to help the injured starters when they struggle, because it’s going to keep happening. I don’t know if it will be Lillard or Wesley Matthews or even C.J. McCollum, but someone has to get it done.
Had the Trail Blazers not gotten off to such a hot start, I think we’d all be extremely happy with where they are right now. But, because it’s been rough lately, it has put everyone a little on edge. It is not time to panic yet, especially coming off a win, but if the Trail Blazers start slip a little bit, the front office might need to consider making a move before the trade deadline.
With the West as wide-open as it’s ever been, I don’t think we can blame General Manager Neil Olshey for rolling the dice in a trade.