Portland Trail Blazers 2-8: Causes, symptoms, and cures

As has been well advertised, the Portland Trail Blazers have gone 2-8 in their past 10 games. In the brutal Western Conference, such slippage will cost a team dearly, and it has done exactly that for the Trail Blazers. They now sit at fourth in the conference, only five games away from the eight seed.

It is apparent that something is wrong with the team, but what that ailment is may be harder to pin down. As is often the case with sports, it is almost assuredly a combination of issues, so let’s start with the easiest one.

Dec 22, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Nicolas Batum (88) during the game against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Injuries have certainly done their part to sabotage the Trail Blazers’ early season success. During these past 10 games, LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Joel Freeland, and Robin Lopez have all missed time due to injury. This translates to a full 60% of the Blazers’ starting lineup missing recent games.

The challenges this represents have been compounded by the fact that even when Aldridge and Batum have been playing, they have certainly felt the effects of their injuries. It’s easy to celebrate a player toughing out the pain to keep playing, but it should not be underestimated just how hard playing at the highest level with an injury is.

Despite being battered, though, this team has too much talent still remaining to go 2-8 over any 10-game stretch. When the Trail Blazers were cruising early in the season, they built their success on both the offensive and defensive end – they were in the top six in both categorical rankings, a surefire path to success.

Yet, as of late, their rankings in both facets of the game have plummeted. During these past 10 games, the Trail Blazers have performed at an offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) of 99.7, and defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) of 103.6.

At the most basic level, the Trail Blazers are being outscored by nearly four points per 100 possessions. Consider, as a comparison, that when looking at the entire season, the difference between their offensive rating (104.5) and defensive rating (99.7) is nearly a positive five. Assuming roughly 100 possessions per game, this means that the Trail Blazers’ performance over the past 10 games compared to the entire season has swung about nine points in an unfavorable direction.

This recent offensive rating of 99.7 would be good for seventh worst in the league this season, barely better than the lowly New York Knicks. Their defensive rating during this same stretch would be good for exactly middle of the league, which fans can actually take comfort in. During their worst stretch of the season, the Trail Blazers’ defense has slipped to only league average – talk about a difference from the past couple years.

Jan 21, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center. The Suns defeated the Blazers 118-113. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The whole team is not playing well, and injuries are a huge factor for many of the individual players. Yet, Damian Lillard, one of the few starters to not be injured, has not been helping the cause. During this stretch, Lillard is shooting only 33% from the field, and an anemic 24.1% from three. For a sharpshooter as talented as he is, this is a rather dreadful slump.

There is definitely a little chicken and egg syndrome going on, though – is Lillard playing worse because he knows the team is doing poorly and he is trying too hard, or is the team doing poorly because Lillard isn’t playing well?

Lillard has been taking over 19 shots per game during this stretch, which would indicate that he is really pressing to try to keep the team afloat. While the answer to whether this is beneficial or not lies somewhere in the middle, it is safe to say that if Lillard were doing better, the team would be as well.

With so much chaos and turmoil in terms of injuries surrounding him, this is Lillard’s opportunity to be the steadying and guiding force for the team. Those are big words to place upon a third-year player, but Lillard has shown time and time again that he has the poise and maturity to do just that. As of late he hasn’t quite been able to fit this bill, but there is still a lot of season left.