Trail Blazers’ conservative defense chokes opponents

The Portland Trail Blazers have seen a vast improvement this season on the defensive side of the ball. As of this writing, they rank third in defensive rating, trailing only the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets. Despite this excellent overall ranking, the Blazers rank only 25^th in steals, and 27^th in opponent turnovers, two statistics that are generally tied to defensive competence.

It has become quite the commentator platitude to say that, “The Blazers don’t force turnovers,” but in this case, it really is quite true. I can understand how not gambling for steals would be wise, but even then it seems natural to assume that good defenses are good in part because they can get the other team to turn it over. After all, a possession that ends without a shot is the only guaranteed win for a defense.

The two teams ranked immediately above and below the Blazers at forcing turnovers are the Chicago Bulls and the Indiana Pacers. Both of these teams have been defensive juggernauts for the last several years, and are showing no signs of stopping. The Bulls are currently ranked 10^th in defense, and the Pacers, despite injuries (RIP Paul George) and roster shakeup, have cobbled together the league’s fourth best defense.

It appears then, to be a trend that elite defenses do not need to force turnovers in order to be successful, and the Blazers are following this mold. Rather than gamble on risky attempts at steals or jumps into passing lanes, the Blazers are moving as a unit, keeping bodies between opponents and the hoop, and rotating for weak side help. If even just one player gambles on a steal or tries to intercept a pass, it leaves everyone else in a sub-optimal position to contest the eventual shot should the gambit fail.

If this conservative approach doesn’t lead to turnovers, then how is it successful? Quite simply, the Blazers are not letting their opponents make shots. Blazer opponents are currently shooting the worst in the league on threes, the third worst in the league on twos, and third worst overall. This shouldn’t really come as a surprise with the Blazers ranked third in defense, but it is still a pretty sight to see the Blazers topping such a crucial category as opponent three-point percentage.

Jan 5, 2015; Portland, OR, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Jeremy Lin (17) shoots the ball over Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) during the fourth quarter of the game at the Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. The Blazers won the game 98-94. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

With the three-pointers worth a full point more, and NBA teams starting to realize how valuable this extra point is, the importance of the Blazers’ defense on the three-point line cannot be overstated. An open three is quite possibly one of the most damaging shots for a team to give up, so this is a huge part of the Blazers overall defensive success.

If a team’s only goal were to completely stop their opponents from making threes, they could completely sell out to do so by running any and every shooter off the line. By doing this (aggressively running at three-point shooters all the time), said team would be completely vulnerable to drives into the lane and easy layups as a result, which are quite damaging in their own right.

This is why it’s worth pointing out the Blazers’ stellar defense on two-point shots as well. This isn’t a case of the team focusing on one area or the other – rather, the entire defense is well-balanced. For a team that wants to make ever deeper forays into the playoffs, this is essential.