On Saturday against the Pacers, Portland Trail Blazers small forward Nicolas Batum hit over 50% of his shots for only the second time all season (<10% of games). Last season he reached 50% in 23 of his 82 games (28% of the games). He is shooting 37.7% from the field overall, and a dismal 23.9% from three – both currently career lows.
I could keep throwing numbers and stats out, but they aren’t needed. Anyone who has frequently watched the Blazers this year can see that Batum is struggling, and struggling mightily. While an early season knee injury cannot have helped his performance, a knee contusion should not solely be responsible for this decline.
There is assuredly no one answer as to what is going on, but it is readily apparent that his low three-point percentage is dragging everything down. On the season, Batum is shooting 51.6% on twos, which is actually middle of the pack when compared to seasons throughout his career. He is also shooting slightly above the league average from outside the lane two-point shots, and is finishing at the rim at a higher rate than league average as well:
That three-point shooting, though, is a killer. This team’s offense thrives on spacing and hitting threes, and if the threes aren’t falling, that could spell bad news. The more I stare at that 23.9%, the more it seems like a typo. You merely have to look at Batum’s career stats to see that he is a fine shooter – 36.3% from three and 52.7% overall.
Batum’s 8.9 points per game, currently his lowest in six seasons, would easily crest 10 if the only difference he made were to hit threes at his career three-point shooting percentage (he would be scoring 1.7 points more a game). The three point shot is a huge part of his game (over half of his shot attempts are from three), so to rob him of that ability is drastically neutering his effectiveness.
I went back and watched video of all of Batum’s three point attempts over the past month or so, to see if I could notice any trends. The results were, unfortunately, quite worrisome. I was astounded at how many open looks Batum was getting, but still clanking. Head Coach Terry Stotts runs a savvy and effective offense that generates open shots, and Batum has been getting his share of them. He simply hasn’t been converting.
I almost wished to see that Batum was taking off-balance, contested, or late in the shot clock threes, but alas, that wasn’t what the tape showed. It is unfortunate that he is missing, but Batum has established through seven years in the NBA that he is a better shooter than he is showing. If there were to be a silver lining it’s simply that Batum has proven he is a better shooter, and all that he has to do is hit the shots.
That’s easy to say sitting in the stands watching a game, but the reality is that cold streaks and mental blocks happen in any sport. If you get in your head too much, it can become that much harder to break the cycle.
Despite his shooting woes, Batum is still doing a fine job getting others involved, equaling his assist output from last season. His 5.1 assists per game are the third most among small forwards, and there is no denying that this ability of his to often act as the offense’s facilitator is invaluable for the Blazers as a whole.
Ultimately, I believe it is not a matter of if, but when Batum’s shooting will pick up. Bear in mind, for example, that Wesley Matthews started off the season shooting poorly, but since then he has been on fire. If Batum’s shooting slump improbably continues, this could be a cause for concern, but in the meantime, he is still proving his value in other ways.