By all accounts, Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard has had a rough start to the new season. Through three games, Lillard is averaging a very un-Lillard like 13.7 points per game on 26.8% shooting (not a typo), to go along with only four assists. This is compared to last season’s performance, when he averaged 20.7 points per game on 42.4% shooting, to go along with 5.6 assists.
While only three games, this is a fairly precipitous drop-off, and begs the question of what has caused this slow start. There could be several factors at play, but the first thing worth mentioning is that it was recently revealed that Lillard has been dealing with an abdominal strain. Trail Blazers Beat Writer Casey Holdahl, who originally tweeted the news, was previously unaware that it was even a problem, so it is unknown how long the injury has been present.
By all accounts, abdominal strains are no fun, and this could absolutely be a factor in Lillard’s performance thus far. It directly ties into the biggest problem I was seeing for Lillard this season, which was simply his reluctance to drive to the hoop. On the season, Lillard has only shot 11 shots within 5 feet of the hoop, or about 3.7 per game.
To be honest, this is more than it has appeared when watching games, but even so, 3.7 attempts near the rim per game is fairly paltry. For some perspective, this is equivalent to less than one attempt at the rim per quarter. For a player as talented as Lillard, this seems like a wasted opportunity.
For another angle on this, consider that in the first game of the season, Lillard’s point guard counterpart, Russell Westbrook, shot 13 times within five feet of the rim. While Westbrook was obviously in a different situation (being the main and only offensive force), this is still a higher total than Lillard has mustered in a full three games. Westbrook was fearless in driving, and if he didn’t get the basket, he was often rewarded with a foul, which is one of the primary reasons to drive in the first place.
However, driving to the rim is an incredibly arduous task. You risk getting bumped, hit, knocked down, etc. If Lillard has been dealing with the abdominal strain this whole time, it would be understandable that he is hesitant to drive into the land of giants, especially when layups require so much torquing and contorting of the body.
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Overall, while three games of this level of performance makes me leery, it’s not yet time to worry. We have had two full seasons of seeing how good Lillard actually is, so a poor three game stretch is no reason to slam the panic button yet. If it actually has been the abdominal strain that has been bothering Lillard, that would at least represent a quantifiable problem that will eventually be resolved.
Additionally, Lillard has proven himself to be an exceptionally calm and collected player. While he is apt to press at times when he can’t find his rhythm, he strikes me as the type player that won’t let a bad stretch overly affect him.
Currently, the Blazers sit at 1-2 on the season. While hypotheticals are always a dangerous game to play, it’s not hard to imagine that they could be 3-0 of Lillard had even performed to 80% of last season’s self. On one hand, that means that once he gets back on track the Trail Blazers should be ready to roll. On the other hand, two losses that could have been wins could loom very large when determining the playoff situation in the always stacked Western Conference. By no means are both losses Lillard’s fault, but when he returns to form it will be a huge boost to the squad.