As the Portland Trail Blazers gear up for their preseason opener tonight, both the team and the fans are deciphering what the team’s eventual lineups will look like. One of the most interesting competitions to watch will surely be the one at the end of the bench. With only five players on the court at a time, when push comes to shove there will not be enough minutes for everyone.
Most NBA teams generally only run lineups eight or nine deep, and last year, Stotts was no exception. Going by total minutes played, there was a chasm between the player that received the ninth most minutes (Joel Freeland, 727) and the 10th most minutes (C.J. McCollum, 476). Although injuries played a role, most players missed games at some point, so it mostly balances out.
Heading into this season, the Blazers look to have a complete bench: Steve Blake as the backup point guard, Dorell Wright as the backup small forward, Thomas Robinson as the backup power forward, and Chris Kaman as the backup center. Things are a little more interesting at the shooting guard position, where McCollum and Will Barton look set to battle it out for primary backup duties.
Going off past precedent, one of these five players (assuming Barton or McCollum emerge as a clear cut victor) will likely end up on the outside looking in, in terms of minutes. While hard to imagine now, in a game a couple months from now with the five starters and these five backups all healthy, Stotts may very well skip over one of them and utilize only a nine man lineup.
Mar 5, 2014; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts talks to shooting guard Will Barton (5) during a timeout against the Atlanta Hawks at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports
Who then, is at risk? Every player has something going for them – Blake and Kaman would not have been brought in as free agents if there wasn’t a plan for them. Robinson is the team’s go-to energy man. Wright found himself briefly on the “outside looking in” position last year, failing to appear in 14 games, before he earned his way back into Stotts’ good graces.
Whoever wins the spot between Barton and McCollum will be looked on to be a scorer, especially since they can now benefit from Blake’s set ups. Scoring has not come easily for the Blazers’ bench unit in recent years, so the skill-sets of these two seem to be particularly valuable.
This is all without even mentioning Freeland, who started coming into his own last year, or the “loser” of the McCollum and Barton competition. These two players will still be able to contribute if called upon.
It doesn’t appear that anyone should really be left out, but this is one of the tough parts of Stotts’ job. Decisions like this are never so black and white, though, so there are some various possibilities that may prevent such cut and dried choices from having to occur.
The first major factor is injuries. Injuries happen. Most players will be injured at one point in the season. Between the five starters, and what appear to be the five primary backups, the odds are good that at least one of them will be injured quite frequently. Voilá! That would be the easiest solution leading to a nine man rotation, and will certainly be in play (but hopefully not frequently).
Supposing all ten players remain healthy, Stotts could simply buck the shorter rotations trend and decide to run a lineup that actually does go 10 deep. If the talent and production are there (two big ifs to be sure), there is no reason not to utilize it. It would preserve the starters even more during the grind of an 82 game season.
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Lastly, Stotts could pseudo-utilize all ten players, but alter their playing time (and perhaps if they even play at all), depending on the opponent and the possible matchups. In one game the opponent may have proven vulnerable to springy, athletic wings, so Barton may get the call, while the next game, if the opponent is particularly vulnerable to corner threes, Stotts could call upon Wright.
This method of minutes allocation would require a heavy amount of opponent specific pre-game scouting and preparation, as well as potentially mucking with established chemistry. The NBA is often about matchups though, so if there is one to exploit, it is absolutely an avenue that Stotts could pursue.
While I still expect one of the aforementioned ten players to be “left out” to an extent, it is likely that injuries will smooth out many of the minutes and rotation issues. For the games where this is not the case and everyone is healthy, it will be interesting to see how Stotts proceeds.
While it is exciting to think about this season’s bench’s potential, it all comes down to results on the court. Such a seeming excess of bench talent doesn’t mean anything if it is only that – seeming. Hopefully this is not the case, and Stotts is actually forced to make tough decisions because so many players perform well. While certainly not easy, this is any coach’s dream problem to have.