Heading into the 2014-15 season, the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Los Angeles Clippers are the teams to beat in the Western Conference. On paper, those three teams are better than the rest of the West, and it is not debatable.
Outside of the top three, the rest of the West is wide-open.
The Portland Trail Blazers finished fifth in the West with a 54-28 record last season. Logically, the next step in improvement would be cracking the top four in the West this season; however, more realistically, the Trail Blazers finishing in the top six would show improvement in an increasingly tough Western Conference.
While they cashed in on a hot start last season, they went 23-18 in the second half of the year. Whether that was an indication of other teams catching up with them, fatigue, or just that was how good the Blazers actually were, in general, who knows?
The Trail Blazers’ second half record projected out to a full season is only 46-36 and would have been the ninth best record in the West last year. LaMarcus Aldridge missed 12 games in the second half, and that, no doubt, contributed to the Trail Blazers’ struggles. Still, that’s not good enough for this team.
Assuming Portland is somewhere in between the fiery hot start to last season and their struggles down the stretch, the Trail Blazers are in the tier below the top teams in the West and have a few teams that finished below them last season gunning for their spot.
1. Dallas Mavericks
Mar 7, 2014; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks shooting guard Monta Ellis (11) drives to the basket past Portland Trail Blazers power forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) during the first quarter at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
2014 POR record vs. DAL: 1-2
The Mavericks added Tyson Chandler and Chandler Parsons to a team that took the NBA champion San Antonio Spurs to seven games in the first round of the playoffs last season. Rick Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the league, and Dirk Nowitzki is still one of the best players in the league.
With Monta Ellis, Devin Harris, and Jameer Nelson managing the backcourt, the Mavs could emerge as one of the best teams in the league over the course of the season. In fact, I would not be entirely surprised if they gave the Spurs a run for the Southwest Division crown.
The Mavs lost Vince Carter, DeJaun Blair, and Shawn Marion from last year’s team, but they have a history of player turnover and achieving good results. Pound for pound, the Mavs are as good as Portland right now and could easily jump in the Western Conference standings.
2. Phoenix Suns
Nov 13, 2013; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) passes the ball against the Phoenix Suns at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports
2014 POR record vs. PHO: 1-3
If Eric Bledsoe can stay healthy, the Phoenix Suns pose a legitimate matchup problem to the Trail Blazers. With three guards—Bledsoe, Goran Dragic, and Isaiah Thomas— that are each capable of exploding for close to 30 points on a given night, the Suns can relentlessly attack Portland’s guards. Damian Lillard and Steve Blake, two questionable defenders, will be tested the entire time they are on the floor. Wesley Matthews can provide some cover, but not enough to stem the scoring tide.
The Suns took it to the Trail Blazers in three of the four meetings last season. If Portland does not figure out how to guard the Suns’ high flying offense, that could happen again this season, and three losses to another playoff team is like a six-game swing.
3. Denver Nuggets
Mar 1, 2014; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers shooting guard Wesley Matthews (2) fouls Denver Nuggets power forward Kenneth Faried (35) in the second half at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports
2014 POR record vs. DEN: 4-0
The Trail Blazers swept the Nuggets last season, but I doubt that will happen this season. The Nuggets are fully healthy again and added Arron Afflalo this offseason. They might not be as good as Trail Blazers, but they have the depth to give Portland some real problems and keep the pressure on against the second unit.
Nate Robinson, Wilson Chandler, and JaVale McGee will likely be the Nuggets first players off the bench. Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried also give the Nuggets quickness and athleticism at two positions that the Trail Blazers are weak on defensively. The Nuggets should also see the return of second-leading scorer Danilo Gallinari, who missed all of last season with a torn ACL.
A good result for the Trail Blazers would be a split with Dallas, Phoenix, and Denver this season. How they fair against those improving teams could make a huge difference when it comes time to determine playoff seeding.