Portland Trail Blazers: Over/Under 48.5 wins?
By Bryce Olin
On Sept. 30, the Westgate SuperBook released its over/under projections for the upcoming NBA season.
Westgate SportsBook set the Trail Blazers over/under at 48.5 wins, tied with the Memphis Grizzlies for seventh-best in the Western Conference.
Immediately, my reaction was “That’s too low,” but after some thought, I can’t say I have any qualms with the over/under.
The Trail Blazers probably overachieved last season; there is no other way to spin it. Four starters, Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews, Nic Batum, and Robin Lopez, played in all 82 games. The chances of that happening again are incredibly slim. That leads me to believe there is bound to be some regression.
How much?
That’s where things get interesting.
Looking at the landscape of the West, I cannot definitively say that it is much better this season than it was last season. Dallas, Memphis, and Denver are really the only two teams I’m absolutely certain will be better than they were last year. Minnesota and Houston both took big steps back, and I don’t know that teams like the Lakers, Utah, Sacramento and New Orleans did quite enough this offseason or are ready to make a postseason push yet.
I’ve put together a tier system for rankings the Western Conference.
Upper Echelon/Contenders: Los Angeles Clippers, San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City
The tier just below: Memphis Grizzlies, Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets
Third Tier: Phoenix Suns, Denver Nuggets
Bottom tier: Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Pelicans, Minnesota Timberwolves, Utah Jazz
Based on my perceived understanding of the Western Conference, the Trail Blazers are in the spot they should be heading into the season. San Antonio exposed a lot of the Trail Blazers’ flaws and weaknesses in the 2014 playoffs, and other than adding a little more depth to the bench, the Trail Blazers didn’t fix anything heading into the season. Of course, Portland has the whole season to work and get better, but the same problems (especially defending the pick & roll) will likely remain.
The optimist in me wants to believe Portland will win more than 50 games. That would be too great seasons in a row, and Portland would appear to have solidly confirmed movement in the right direction. On the other hand, realistically, Portland will not get off to the 22-4 start they did last season, and because of that, should expect to win just under than 50 games; perhaps 48 or 49 like the Vegas line would indicate.
Barring a major injury, I don’t foresee Portland winning less than 45 games, and that might just be good enough to get them into the playoffs. The offense was so good last season, and averaged 106.7 PPG, fourth-best in the league. That is not going to change.
Why won’t it change?
| Rk | Player | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P% | FT% | AST | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LaMarcus Aldridge | 69 | 36.2 | 9.4 | 20.6 | .458 | .200 | .822 | 2.6 | 23.2 |
| 2 | Nicolas Batum | 82 | 36.0 | 4.6 | 10.0 | .465 | .361 | .803 | 5.1 | 13.0 |
| 3 | Damian Lillard | 82 | 35.8 | 6.7 | 15.9 | .424 | .394 | .871 | 5.6 | 20.7 |
| 4 | Wesley Matthews | 82 | 33.9 | 5.4 | 12.3 | .441 | .393 | .837 | 2.4 | 16.4 |
| 5 | Robin Lopez | 82 | 31.7 | 4.3 | 7.9 | .551 | .000 | .818 | 0.9 | 11.1 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/1/2014.
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Lillard shot 42 percent from the field and 39 percent from three-point range. If he becomes even the slightest bit more efficient, his numbers will increase. Matthews shot less than 40 percent from three, but has shown capable of shooting better than 40 percent for long stretches. Each member of the starting lineup has returned for another year and all of them are improving their game yearly.
The Trail Blazers did lose Mo Williams off the bench, which may have some negative impact, but they added Steve Blake and still have young guys, like C.J. McCollum and Will Barton, who have the ability to contribute off the bench this year. I’m confident those three guards, as well as newly added center Chris Kaman, can have a positive impact in the Trail Blazers’ offense this season. For those reasons, the Blazers will not regress offensively.
And, as far as I know, the point of basketball is to score more points than the other team; Portland has as good of a chance as any team in the league to do that on a nightly basis.
I’ll take the over on the Trail Blazers.