I think everyone and their mom is happy the Blazers are returning to the Rose Garden. But tonight will be far from a ‘gimme’ as the streaking Orlando Magic come into town. The Blazers may have won in Orlando, but both teams have grown since that matchup. To put it in perspective that win in Orlando was Portland’s first road victory and Greg Oden was on the sideline. It was also Orlando’s first home loss and they sat at a “struggling” 4-3. They are 12-2 since.
Orlando and Portland are alike in a few ways. Both teams are on a roll, inconsistent and still learning. The Magic hit a bit of an injury bug as Pietrus, Bogans and Nelson went down but have found ways to win through it all. They come into tonight have won 12 of their last 14 games which includes taking 7 of their last 8 on the road. The Magic are also an impressive 6-3 against the Western Conference and 7-2 on the road. All of this means a win tonight will be far from easy.
Want to know what else these teams have in common? The three-ball. Both Orlando and Portland love the three-ball. Both are averaging over 8 made three’s a game and 20 attempts. Orlando has proven they are going to jack it up which is not surprising with both Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu as featured members of the offense. What’s impressive about the Magic is they not only put up the three, they get to the free throw line as good as any team in the league. Statistically that is. You can place a lot of that on Dwight Howard, but still it’s a dangerous mix.
The keys to beating the Magic do not lie in shutting down Dwight Howard. No, sir. He is more than likely going to get his, the only hope is for Big Joel to agitate him a bit. Or for him to miss free throws early in the 4th and have his teammates go away from him the rest of the game. (That happened in Orlando). To beat the Magic you have to take either Hedo Turkoglu or Rashard Lewis out of the equation. Have to, have to, have to. 1 out of 3 playing great is a W, 2 out of 3 playing great is ok, 3 out of 3……no. In the victory at Orlando, Rashard Lewis played horrible. With only 2 of their big 3 firing and Dwight Howard missing free throws, the Magic had limited options in the 4th quarter. When Dwight, Rashard and Hedo have it going the Magic are deadly. Take one of them out and their lack of depth will show. They have serviceable hard workers off the bench but I welcome Anthony Johnson, Tony Battie and Brian Cook to be on the floor against Portland.
(And I left out Courtney Lee for a reason: he kind of scares me. He seems like a SVG prototype, great defender who can score but won’t have to be a main scorer. I want JJ Redick back in the rotation.)
Another piece of the pie: containing Jameer Nelson. Yes, I said it and I meant it. I truly believe he’s the Magic’s X-Factor. When he’s scored 15+ this year the Magic are 7-1. Just a thought. Much easier than said but if the Blazers can shut down Hedo or Rashard and contain Jameer Nelson they should win barring an offensive collapse. Orlando just does not have that much scoring in the lineup other than those guys. Bogans can hit an open shot but he can also miss an open shot. I’m fine with making Keith Bogans beat me anyday of the week.
(Sidenote: Don’t double team Dwight Howard in NBA 2K9. You will lose. Bogans, Lewis, Hedo and Redick hit everything.)
Keys to success for Portland:
- Defend the three-pointer. This kind of goes along with the first point, but the three pointer is a main part of Orlando’s offense. They are going to shoot the 3-pointer tonight. A lot. Just like you know the couple is going to break up at some point in a romantic comedy, you should know the Magic are going to shoot three-pointer until they get vertigo. I mean they shoot 20+ a game you know it’s coming. Portland has improved in this area but is still succeptible to giving the three-ball up. Key stat coming up, here is how Orlando has shot the three in their 5 losses on the year:
- 10/29 vs. Atlanta – 4/25 (16.0%)
- 10/31 at Memphis – 10/29 (34.5%)
- 11/10 vs. Portland – 7/24 (29.2%)
- 11/22 vs. Houston – 7/27 (25.9%)
- 12/01 at Boston – 5/26 (19.2%)
Now compare that to how they have shot the three in their last 4 victories:
- 10/29 vs. Indiana – 12/26 (46.2%)
- 12/03 vs. Minnesota – 10/21 (47.6%)
- 12/05 vs. Oklahoma City – 13/27 (48.1%)
- 12/08 at Clippers – 10/26 (38%)
Simple science here. Take away the three-ball and you have a great chance at beating them. Let them hit their three’s and you might as well change your name to saran cause it’s a wrap.
- Take Rashard or Hedo out. Just as important as the point above. Both can be inconsistent and if their jumpers are off that’s about 50% of their offense right there. Dwight will get his, just don’t let both of these guys get their’s.
- Contain Jameer Nelson. Him scoring is a major bonus for Orlando and could basically off-set any shutting down of Hedo or Rashard. Again they are 7-1 when he scores 15+.
- Get the low post game going. LMA can go at anyone on this team, get him going early.
That’s about all I got. Any comments, thoughts, worries or confident feelings feel free to drop a line. Oh yeah and I guess Dwight Howard and Greg Oden will be matched up together, if you’re into that kind of stuff.