We promised you a gigantic Blazers preview of epic proportions, so we’re going to give you a gigantic preview of epic proportions. SJ and I spent two evenings just talking about various aspects of the team and I’ve cleaned up the results for you below, which means there’s 4,500 words just waiting for you, and that’s cut down from the actual conversation . Looking back, if we had podcast equipment, we might have done it that way. But we don’t, so call us old-school.
One small thought on this. We don’t actually disagree that much, which might not adhere to the traffic-grabbing standards of online media in that we need to create a counterpoint to be interesting, but frankly, if we agree then we agree. No point in making up semi-sensical points just to be different.
Here’s a brief index of what’s included (just do a control+f or apple+f to find the section in the page):
-Guards Breakdown
-Forwards Breakdown
-Center Breakdown
-Schedule Analysis
-Possible lineups
-Things people have said about the team that we feel the need to comment on
And now, the questions, the answers, and everything in between:
Guards Breakdown
Coup: Let’s start things off talking about the lead of the offense, the point guard. Is Steve Blake the answer at PG, or just the placeholder. If he’s not the answer, who is?
SJ: Allen Iverson is the answer.
Coup: Um…moving on. Steve Blake?
SJ: Steve Blake is not, I repeat, is not the answer for Portland at PG, but he’s not a placeholder either. He’s a near perfect fit for this team. He doesn’t turn the ball over, he’s a good passer, he can penetrate, he can spread the defense with his perimeter shot and he doesn’t take things away from Brandon Roy. Roy said it himself he doesn’t want a dominating type PG around because it would take stuff off of his plate. So while Blake is an underrated perfect fit…he’s not the answer.
I think Blazer fans are hoping Bayless can be molded into the answer. He can mix his combo-guardness with a little bit of Blake and create what we need.
Coup: So what you really want is Blake 2.0, with added athletic modifications.
SJ: Pretty much.
Coup: Gotcha. And where does Sergio fit in all this. We both thought he was done for a while, but now do you want a Sergio-to-Rudy second unit for the next decade?
SJ: I like Sergio…and I haven’t liked Sergio in a while, and all of it is thanks to Rudy and their awesome chemistry…I love Los Conquistadores. That being said, I still want to see what Sergio can give us, all signs point to him having his best season ever but the only pre-season game I saw I wasn’t overly impressed with him. I won’t say I want that for the next decade…although I wouldn’t mind it they’re kind of like the Spanish D-Miles and Q-Rich from the early 00’s.
I mean, come on, the story about them buying matching sweaters? I’ll be slightly hurt if and when Sergio has to go. Back on subject…Sergio is a lot younger than Blake. I personally wouldn’t mind a scenario where Sergio becomes the backup to Bayless, but that of course is down the line.
Coup: I think we can both agree that Rudy looks great and is a great fit for us, so lets talk about how much better Roy can get. What’s his ceiling?
SJ: Well, realistically, with all of our weapons, statistically he isn’t going much higher, right?
Coup: We he could, couldn’t he? Put him in Sacramento instead of Kevin Martin and couldn’t he put up 24 points a game? I think the point is he shouldn’t need to ever go that much higher than 20, 4 and 6 per game for us to win.
SJ: You’re right, he could, and I don’t think he will. And he doesn’t have to.
Coup: Not to compare talent levels yet, but statistically speaking, in relation to wins, couldn’t Roy be our guard version of Tim Duncan, especially in the regular season? I mean this in the sense of him pacing himself and the team through the regular season and controlling the playoffs?
SJ: Whoa, you know how I feel about Duncan. But yes, I think Roy could become that. He’s going to be underrated for a very long time. He runs this team and we’re only going so far as he takes us.
Forwards Breakdown
Coup: Well, why don’t we start this breakdown with a nice analysis of Raef LaFrentz’s Expiring Contract.
SJ: Oh, Raef. The days of you being our big inside joke are coming to a close. I almost feel sad. Kind of like when Will & Grace was ending and even though I didn’t really like the show, they made such a big deal about it that I kind of got sucked in. So when that magical transaction involving Raef goes down…I’ll be a bit sad. I highly doubt Raef and his sweet lefty stroke will be seeing anytime on the court…as a matter of fact…has anyone seen Raef LaFrentz since April? Seriously. Raef’s mysterious shoulder injury and subsequent surgery has led him to disappear off the face of the earth. He’s about to pull a Katie Holmes and lose all of his human qualities. His goal for this season should be to tell someone in the Blazer organization to CTC. Ok that’s my personal goal for him because it would be hilarious but, okay you get it.
Coup: Yeah, he’s what Theo Ratliff was for the Celtics two years ago, and also why we never needed to feak out about the Darius Miles cap situation because we have this sweet contract that plenty of teams are going to want. And no, we should not be trading for some “veteran” SF like Richard Jefferson or Corey Maggette. KP knows what we need as a fit, and it’s not someone who needs a high volume of shots – unless it’s Danny Granger.
Now I know you want to talk about Shavlik Randolph, so go, do your thing.
SJ: Allow me to get personal for a second. Shavlik has got a long way to get on my good side. The argument against him: he went to Duke, he’s basically Josh McRoberts Sr. and he beat out both Luke Jackson and Steven Hill for the #15 spot. I will say this: he earned it. Anytime you go 9-for-9 and drop 19 you get a few pats on the back. I’ve even heard he outplayed Ike several times. He’s obviously around to work Oden in practice and as an insurance policy should Channing or Ike get hurt/traded. I’m sure there are some Blazer fans who will call for Shavlik to play over Ike…they should be shaken. The signing still baffles me…I mean he wasn’t even good at Duke. But I disgress. No more Haterade I promise. Shavlik can definitely bring some extra beef to the Blazer lineup. If he does play I’d expect him to be Pryzbilla Lite, a lot of effort on D, hard work on the boards and physicality. His goals for the year should be not to injure Greg Oden practice or risk getting publicly executed at Pioneer Courthouse Square
Coup: And Mr. Frye?
SJ: The ‘Buffet of Goodness’ needs to become a ‘Buffet of Consistent Contribution’. Not nearly as fun or catchy but to really help this team that’s what he has to do. It should be easier as he’s firmly entrenched himself as the #2 post man. Not only that but he’s worked on his jumper big-time. His game will mesh a lot better with Mr. Oden or Joel.
Coup: This is his year to prove he should be a part of this team, though. He’s going to cost us too much to keep around as a sometimes rotation player. And what about Ike? He certainly hasn’t impressed either of us so far.
SJ: From the part of the pre-season I have paid attention to it seems as if Ike is forcin
g it. He wants to be so good so fast and it seems as if he’s not really letting the game come to him.
He’s in a contract year but not only that he’s trying to earn playing time on a team stacked with big men. He’s just rushing things the tools are there. He’s a natural back to the basket scorer, and is offensively gifted that you can sometimes see he just has that ‘knack’. If Nate can get him to buy in defensively, he will help down the line if foul trouble becomes an issue, yet his biggest thing is to not get wrapped up in having to score all the time but to play solid defense, rebound and let things come to him. If he tries to force it he won’t fit in with this team at all.
Coup: Onto our three main scoring forwards. First up, Martell Webster. We’ll talk about his place in the lineup later, but was he a wasted high draft pick? Why or why not?
SJ: I wouldn’t say a waste. I mean a part of you wishes we could have gotten CP3.
Coup: But then we wouldn’t be where we are now.
SJ: Exactly. Plus we have two more lottery picks from that draft on our bench in Channing and Ike. So it’s not like ’05 was just stocked full of picks and we could have done tons better. That said, if he doesn’t start showing consistency this year, which is all he’s talked about, I’ll be leaning toward but. I mean…#6?
Still, other than Deron and Paul, the rest of that draft wasn’t head and shoulders better.
Coup: We’ll get to Batum later, but as for Martell’s main SF counterpart, Travis Outlaw, what is his future with this team and what sort of player would you be willing to trade him for?
SJ: That’s the thing…with the full compliment of talent around, Martell and Travis are going to make each other expendable. I’m fully aware that in the future it’s just not going to work having both of them with Rudy and Batum. One of them has to go. We have to wonder if we’ve seen Outlaw’s ceiling, aka the best he can do is what he did last year.
Could Outlaw ever be a starter? Nate went to a 19-year old Frenchie over him. He’s a valued member of the franchise but I believe that most times blazer fans overrate him because of what we’ve seen him do and because we’ve cultivated him, but now it’s time to see if last year was his ceiling or not.
If we traded Outlaw, I’d want us to get either a defender or a three-point shooter. You fit the player to that.
Coup: We’ll address that topic when the time comes. Now we come to LaMarcus Aldridge. We’ll get to some of the comments being made about him, but there’s plenty of questions before that. Is he going to be content being the underrated guy? What is his role going to be in 4th quarters? Can he and will he become a better rebounder…does he even need to be? I think his rebounding totals reflect his style of play, outside, more than anything regarding his effort, but he could still get after things a little more at times.
SJ: Judging from the pieces we read going into the season he has a chip on his shoulder, but the good kind, the kind where he seemingly knows his role and wants appreciation, but still keeping the team first. He wont be content being the underrated guy, though, he wants some recognition.
His rebounding is going down now that Oden is around, and that’s not a bad thing. I think he can get different types of rebounds than Oden and they can compliment each other well. With his length and size and athleticism he’ll be able to board but I don’t see him averaging a double-double, and again that’s not something he needs to do.
Coup: I have to agree. I’m not worried about LaMarcus leaving for a team he can call his own or anything like that, as I feel that he does put a high value on winning, but at some points he’s going to need some ESPN pieces about how valuable he really is. And maybe that will be enough.
Centers Breakdown
Coup: Frankly, we love Joel Pryzbilla. He’s been a trooper the entire time he’s been in Portland, chose to re-sign with the Blazers over the Spurs and busts his butt. He’s also at the top of the discussion for best backup center in the league and is the perfect guy for a certain No. 1 draft pick to practice against. All that said, we know what we are getting from Joel and he’s going to get his minutes, so the real discussion falls on the man who could write a thesis paper on his philosophy in answering the question, “How’s the knee?”
So this now becomes the…
Greg Oden Breakdown
Coup: Going off our small sample size, and so we don’t start this section blabbering about how good he will be, what has surprised/disappointed you about Oden so far based on what you thought of him during the ’07 Draft?
SJ: First off, nothing that Greg Oden has done can or will disappoint me. That sounds like a bold statement and it is, but we just went through an 82 game season with Joel Przybilla as our starting center. No offense to Joel, I love his game, but the low-end of Oden’s ceiling is better than Big Joel.
Now, after the injury I prepared myself for the worse, i.e. him
turning into Sam Bowie with all the injuries. So to see what he’s done this pre-season has made me giddy. Obviously his non-dunk post material needs a lot of work and polish but that will come. so will the defensive presence and the big rebounding.
Coup: Some of that is already there.
SJ: Yes, but not to where I think Oden expects it to be. I think the beginning of the season will be up and downs as he tries to fit in to the mix, gets used to the season, gets used to playing the NBA game, foul trouble and all that. But I promise you there will be a game where he turns the corner and when he does, watch out NBA. I’m slightly surprised with his complete beastliness in the low post, though.
Coup: Can’t be too surprised after his overwhelming performance against Florida in the NCAA Finals though.
How do you think the media has treated him? I’m not referring specifically to the Jason Quick article in which the beat writer said Oden was ‘underwhelming’, since we both think that was still fairly responsible in context and Quick made himself accountable for it, but do you think Oden deserved a bit of a team-imposed media lockdown, or a reprieve, just so he could recharge? Or is he just too considerate for that?
SJ: I think he’s too considerate. And you know there would a backlash if people think Oden was being hidden or something like that. Just look at what happened with Sarah Palin.
Coup: Another reason he’s endorsing Barack Obama, probably.
SJ: I think the media has treated him fairly, though. Maybe they’ve overhyped him a little bit, but it’s overall been fair, but very repetitive. I mean it got to a point where he was just saying the same things over and over and over again. It was almost a formula for a Greg Oden Interview.
Coup: Did you feel bad for him then?
SJ: I felt bad about him having to answer the same questions over and over. It was just, knee, expectations, rookie, rinse, repeat. It was hard seeing it grate on him as he went from extra entertaining to robot mode.
Coup: A
voiding any homeristic drift into hyperbole, how good can he be? We both hate comparing current players to past players because of how unfair it is to the subject, but for argument’s sake can you think of anyone, or should we just let him be his own man?
SJ: We have to let him be his own man. It would be unfair to compare him to anyone because, A) we haven’t seen enough of him and B) it would put way too much on him. I’ve never been a big fan of hype or ‘this guy is the next this,’ stuff.
He obviously has potential to be something special but its not going to happen immediately and fans need to remember that and be thankful that we have the monster rehabilitated and in our corner. Let’s be realistic and let him find his way before we crown him.
And that goes for the team as a whole…we haven’t made the playoffs so lets not go around talking trash left and right.
Coup: This would be the point where I disagree with you and make a dumb point just to do so, but you’re right, and that’s a good note to end this section on.
Schedule Analysis
Coup: It’s no secret to Blazer fans that our first two months are especially brutal. Some people have said that just getting to 2009 somewhere around .500 would be a positive, and taking a look at some of the easier stretches in January, I tend to agree.
SJ: Well, first off, we can’t get caught up in the hype or get caught up in having to win everything early. To use a cliché, the season is a marathon not a sprint. Compete and get better early on because every game November is particularly nasty with 10 games on the road, not to mention opening the season against five western conference playoff opponents. If we can escape from the first two months with a winning record on the road then things should be great as I expect the Rose Garden to be tough.
Coup: The Rose Garden is always a tough place to play, but generally we don’t talk about the fans of a team being great or home-court advantage unless a team is winning. So if we are winning enough, how many “Portland has awesome fans” features do you think we see on nationally televised broadcasts.
SJ: I’d expect a lot of ‘the Rose Garden is rocking’ and maybe some talk of how weird we are. For some reason I can already picture Mike Tirico saying that.
Coup: Do we become the 2002 Kings fans-wise?
SJ: No, I think we just go back to the 2000 era, with more passion.
Coup: Back to the schedule for a moment, is it important for the Blazers to have a strong foothold on a playoff spot come March or can they mount a late-season run?
SJ: In this Western Conference it’s important for us to be in the driver’s seat and not having to pull a tokyo drift and come from behind. You never want an inexperienced team to HAVE to mount a run late in the season, there’s a lot of pressure involved and what not and you’d more than love to not have to deal with that. Obviously the Blazers have the personnel to be able to be on a run and get on a hot streak but personal preference is to not have to. The conference is too deep: Denver is the type of team who always manages to sneak in and get hot at the end of the season so you don’t want to have to chase them. Ditto for a healthy Golden State
Coup: You liked Tokyo Drift, didn’t you?
SJ: No.
Coup: Good.
Possible lineups and related things that matter
Coup: Small Forward is the lineup question of the month, so who’s getting the opening day nod? Is the job Martell’s when he gets back or will we have to listen to controversy?
SJ: Mr. Nicholas Batum should be the starter. I love Travis but for the reasons we discussed he is much better off being a sub for this team. Last year he easily could have started because Roy needed help scoring and we had one big. This year, the shots won’t be there. And as Roy said, even if they are, they are different shots in the starting lineup than Travis is used to.
Coup: So by even being considered a starter, has Batum made you eat your words about that draft day trade?
SJ: Considering I said Batum for Dorsey and Arthur was was on of the worst trades we’ve done talent wise…hell yes. That move made sense for our team but it’s paying dividends now. So yes, I’ve rolled up my words in what Ricky Bobby would call a really really thing pancake, slabbed some nutella on them and ate them.
On paper, Batum slides in perfectly. We don’t need oodles of scoring in that unit, we need solid play and defense. Batum can give that. He can fit in well with the Big Three. Like Blake, Batum could be the type of player who does not take things away from the table. The Big Three will give us more than enough. And the second unit remains dangerous and intact. Plus I’m sure Outlaw or Rudy will steal second-half minutes. Another bonus is we get to see what Batum can offer and he gets the rare developmental minutes for a rookie that actually matter, since the best way to get better is to play in real games.
I think Martell will be the starter when he returns. His ability to shoot gives him a major edge. Plus Nate has been thinking that since Day One. But the play of Batum and Travis are going to determine which of the three are more expendable.
Coup: If I’m telling you the players on the court at the end of a tight game with the Lakers are Roy, Rudy, Outlaw, LMA and Oden, are you buying me some Rose Garden nachos or throwing them at me?
SJ: I’m agreeing. Those are our 5 best players. If Martell is hot obviously he should be on the court instead of Rudy or Outlaw but Travis has shown his 4th quarter ability. LMA and Oden…duh. Roy? Unless five MJ’s show up like that Gatorade commercial on speed. Plus we’ll have the athleticism to defend as well.
Hopefully that group will be able to mesh, and do it early on. When Martell comes back Nate will have the luxury of being able to pick the two hot players out of Rudy, Travis and Martell to compliment the big three. I’d definitely expect that lineup unless it’s THE Steve Blake Game 2.0 or a Bayless breakout season.
Things that people are saying or have said about Portland this preseason that may or may not be correct but are interesting enough for us to comment on…
Coup: Okay, playing devil’s advocate for John Hollinger, if I tell you the Blazers overracheived last season to the point where our additions will only get us 42 wins, you say what?
SJ: I’m calling you an idiot because I’ve always wanted to call John Hollinger that. Also…no way no how do we only add one win. I’ve been realistic with 44-48, but 42? Yes, the West is tough but not as much so as last year. Denver and Golden State have both taken hits. Last year’s team may have overachieved but this year’s team is too talented to underachieve that badly. There is too much talent and too much depth to only add one win. Oden over Joel. Actual big men. Perimeter scoring. I mean…come on.
Coup: Well, to be fair, Hollinger isn’t an idiot. He’s been more than successful with the stats shtick than most anyone else not involved with Baseball, even though it seems to consume his overall views on talent at times. He’s also a much better journalist than his ESPN writing can represent and comes off much better in his live chats. That said, I completely agree that 42 wins is seriously low balling this squad. Isn’t it natural to think young teams will get better, especially one’s with abnormally high chemistry levels and controlled style of play.
Which brings me to my next statement that I’ve seen more times than a fake Detox beat on Youtube, that being, these Blazers are too young.
SJ: Wasn’t every g
reat team at some point too young? Since when is having a ton of young talent a terrible thing? Wouldn’t you rather be “too young” like the Blazers with a wide open window than aging like Dallas and Pheonix? Seriously, thanks to Nate and Roy this team plays way above its age. This isn’t the Clippers of the early 2000’s with D-Miles, Q-Rich and the gang. They played young. Roy has an old man game, Nate has an old-school approach and it just trickled down. We had no business being .500 last year but did it anyway. No we’ve got experience and this may be a different question in April.
Coup: Don’t you love how we, as fans, can refer to a team, even subconsciously, with the royal “we”? Anyways, just to word your point another way, there is a difference between youth and immaturity, and this team certainly plays mature basketball. I also think the youth comment is an easy target for writers on preview deadlines and the sort because it is just sitting there for the taking.
Next up is a comment that gets floated around by the naysayers, and one I couldn’t disagree with more – the Blazers are soft, as is LaMarcus Aldridge. Before I even let you answer, I’ll just mention that the term “soft” is thrown about too casually by fans, most of whom, like us, have no business making broad statements about the mental fortitude of professional players.
SJ: Last year…yes. Big Joel was our only enforcer and really our only true big. That’s why you had Lamar Odom trying to pull a Triple H on Roy. This year we’re beefy inside. Big Joel has Oden and Ike so you aren’t banging us inside. Roy is tough. Blake knows UFC. Bayless is the mean-mug MVP. Batum and Channing are only soft in the sense that they aren’t going to be throwing chicken wings in the paint. And LaMarcus isn’t nearly as “soft” as his rep gives him. He’s not a banger, he’s almost Sheed-lite, if that makes sense.
On the perimeter we may be a bit soft with three Euros (just going with the stereotype for brevity’s sake, mind you), Martell (even with solid D) and a guy who drives a Candy Green car. That’s okay, though. This isn’t the octagon.
Just to clarify my point. I wouldn’t say we are softer than the Suns a couple of years ago. But I wouldn’t take this team to a bar fight. They are mentally tough…heck just look at whose coaching.
Coup: And finally, “Their a complete waste of my time to be talking about the Portland Trail Blazers. A complete waste of time.” – Stephen A. Smith. Woops, that was two years ago, but still…wow. Looking back, what’s your reaction?
SJ: I just got mad all over again…aaaaand now I’m laughing. It’s hilarious. (Coup’s note: SJ did in fact get testy when we talked about this). It’s just funny, I’ll admit I didn’t know what the bleep we were doing that draft either. Going in I wanted Adam Morrison and was hyped when we got Randy Foye. I was actually disappointed with Aldridge (who at the time I thought should have gone back to college) and even though Roy was good (I’d seen him first hand) I didn’t think he was All-Star material. But I didn’t blast them and have to eat my words like Stephen A. so watching that clip is gratifying times ten.