This is the Rip City Project preview of the 2008-09 season for the Portland Trail Blazers. If you’ve been following our “An Evening with…” series you might come across some similar stuff as there’s only so many things you can preview about a season, but it’s a recommended read along is the rest of the Celticsblog.com preview series going on all month thanks to the fine work of Jeff Clark.
And now, the answers:
Portland Trailblazers
Last Year’s Record: 41-41
Key Losses: Jarrett Jack, James Jones, Greg Oden in Dress Clothes, Josh McRoberts (ha)
Key Additions: Greg Oden, Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, Nicholas Batum, Ike Diego
1. What significant moves were made during the off-season?
The big move of THIS off-season was shipping Jarrett Jack, his inability to run a fast break – and a league-leading 26 (approximate) alley oops tossed out of bounds – and the rights to Brandon Rush to the Pacers for Ike Diogu and the rights to Jerryd Bayless. This trade was direct revenge for the pain and suffering caused by the Dale Davis/Jermaine O’Neal swap. It also killed two birds with one stone, getting Rush out of a potential mega-logjam on the perimeter and switching out Jarrett Jack, a ‘combo’ guard who couldn’t shoot, for a true combo guard in Bayless. Oddly enough, however, that draft-day deal that brought in Nicolas Batum, the supposed long-term athletic project akin to Travis Outlaw, might have the most short-term value of any move now that Air France (for lack of a better nickname) might actually be the opening-day starter with Martell Webster out with an ankle injury.
Not to mention we will finally enjoy the fruit’s of Summer ’07: drafting Oden #1 and Rudy Fernandez #23.
2. What are the team’s biggest strengths?
Depth. We like to say that this team’s depth has depth, which has caused for some scary moments when Rudy Fernandez is forced to play extended minutes in the pre-season. During the second preseason contest of the year, Kevin Pritchard said he believes that the Blazers have four options at every position. If it was possibly to win in the NBA consistently playing a 10-man rotation then we would be able to do it with ease. A glut of big men (Oden, Przybilla, Frye, Diogu), perimeters (Roy, Fernandez, Outlaw, Webster) and point guards (Blake, Rodriguez, Bayless) puts depth as our alpha weapon.
I’d like to say team basketball is also another one of our strengths. Nate McMillan has done an excellent job the past two years of getting guys to buy in to their roles. He’s created a certain culture and it’s spread through the team. Guys know they have to play defense, guys know they have to play together and they just go out and do it. With Brandon Roy as the catalyst, this team is unselfish. Not only that but there is a severe lack of major league ego’s on this team. For one…Roy won’t allow it. Ask Zach Randolph.
3. What are the team’s biggest weaknesses?
Perimeter Shooting, especially for the first couple months with Martell Webster on the sidelines. Rudy Fernandez will be able to fill in nicely, though he’s more of a gunner, and thus more effective in our second unit for now, but after that it becomes a head-scratcher. Steve Blake and Jerryd Bayless can make it, and will get the opportunities…but I’m figuring most opposing coaches will be happy with those two shooting three’s instead of Oden or Aldridge getting touches in the post.
Of course, the other thing on everyone’s weakness list is youth and inexperience. I hesitate to jump on this bandwagon because of the fact that Roy plays like a vet, but there’s no denying it. We’re depending on three NBA rookies and a bunch of guys who have never been to the playoffs. Having acknowledged that, there is a huge difference between youth and immaturity. Whether it is due to Roy, McMillan’s coaching or the presence of underrated vets like Blake, Joel Pryzbilla and James Jones (last year), this team tends to display a sense of maturity reserved for those a few years ahead of them. Sure, the team will have its stinkers, but they’ve shown enough that this isn’t a grave concern, more of an easy buzzword for pundits to list of things that could hold this team back when they are on deadline and can’t think of anything else (other than injury). Remember, at one point or another, every great team or great player was young and inexperienced.
4. Goals for the team this season?
Playoffs, playoffs, playoffs. Despite the incredibly tough state of the Western Conference – and with some teams on the decline – the Blazers goal is clearly making the leap and making the playoffs. More importantly, that’s the immediate goal the coaching staff has instilled in the players in an effort to, we would guess, curtail the championship expectations. To pull a card out of the cliché hat, if the team is playing hard and taking the long-term journey in year-to-year steps, all is well.
We were pleasantly surprised by a 13-game win streak and a 41-41 finish after everyone had to talk themselves off the top of the Rose Garden after the Oden injury, but after a year of saying ‘wait till next year’, next year is here and it’s the playoffs or quasi-bust (as in, if we win 48-50 and don’t make the playoffs, we’d probably just tip our hats to the conference).
5. The question representing all questions about Greg Oden…
He’s big, he’s smart, he’s agile and he wants to win. As much as I dislike making comparisons to other players to determine another player’s value, Oden is the closest thing to Shaq I’ve seen since the big guy starting taking half seasons off in 2002. The reason I didn’t say Dwight Howard is because Dwight has skinnier legs than most people think and Greg’s lower body, by all accounts, could move a bus Flintstones style.
With center prospects the first thing I always want to know is do they want to work? Greg does. Then I want to know if they can play the game outside of dunking? Well, Greg’s hook shot has a ways to go, but already in preseason games he’s showing willingness to pass out of double teams for open three’s, and just the threat of that changes the floor. This first month of the season is going to be the most rusty and out of shape we ever see Oden, and it is already clear that he cannot be contained within four feet of the basket. Being a great center is largely about attitude; Shaq had it for awhile, David Robinson had it, Duncan has it (he qualifies at C) and Russell most certainly had it. Greg, for however much he improves his offense in the next decade, strikes me as the type that means what he says when he says he wants to win.
Of course, like youth with the Blazers in general, you can’t talk about Oden without mentioning injuries, (just typing that is like saying “Candyman” in front of a mirror). Watching him play can feel a bit like waiting for a blood test in that you know it should be perfectly fine, but you’ve got that nagging feeling of dread swirling in your head. But the injury bug has been beaten to death in the last year by every member of the media, ever. My only other concern is him actually turning into Shaq. I’m not overly worried about it, but Greg’s weight will be always be an issue for him, and it’s up to him motivating himself to show up to camp in shape every season. That said, all reports say he’s got a great work ethic.
Predicted Record:
46-36, Playoffs.
I would have said 48-50 before the Webster injury, but I think that, combined with the brutal nature of o
ur early schedule, will knock us back a couple wins in November and December.