Tonight we’ve got an interview with Ben Q. Rock of the Orlando Magic blog Third Quarter Collapse. Portland’s games against the Magic should be circled on your calenders every year for the next decade for that Dwight-Greg matchup, so it’s worth your while to learn a little more about them. Thanks to SJ for setting everything up and to Ben for doing such an in depth interview.
And now, the answers:
1. From an outsider’s perspective, what are your thoughts on the Blazers this year?
I think they have a bright future, obviously, with the young talent on that team; LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Jerryd Bayless, Ike Diogu, Rudy Fernandez, Channing Frye, Greg Oden, Travis Outlaw, Sergio Rodriguez, Brandon Roy, and Martell Webster are all 25-years-old or younger. They also have a bright present. The West is tough, and I don’t know that Portland is in 50-win territory just yet, but 45 wins seems possible. And Nate McMillan is known as a coach who gets the most out of his players, so they may even exceed that total.
2. How do you see your matchup with them playing out? What part interests you the most?
Quite obviously Dwight Howard versus Greg Oden. Most every NBA fan has pegged both those centers to be the best of this generation, and seeing them square off for the first time will be exciting.
I also want to see what Rudy Fernandez does. My God, does he look like a future star.
3. If you could grade the Magic’s off-season, what would you give it?
They didn’t exactly hit a home-run, and they didn’t address their long-term need for a backup point guard and immediate need for a true power forward, so it’s tempting to argue (as some other people have) that they did poorly. Call me optimistic, but I think Mickael Pietrus is going to make quite an impact on this team as its starting shooting guard. Maybe the mid-level is a bit too much money for a guy who has yet to prove himself, but the last guy the Magic signed for that amount of money (Hedo Turkoglu) has turned out okay, thanks.
As literally weak as the Magic’s front-line is, and as much as it needs addressing in the future, it still has two Top-20 forwards in their primes as well as a Top-3 center well before his prime; not having shot-blocking wth that front line is a problem many teams would love to have.
The draft is what puzzles me a bit. Courtney Lee plays the same position that Keith Bogans and J.J. Redick do, and he does similar things: his calling cards are shooting and defense. So the Magic draft him two years after drafting Redick, then throw the midlevel at Pietrus a few weeks later. That much was curious. I was hoping they’d try to maneuver into the second round so they could take a guy like Joey Dorsey or D.J. White, but they didn’t. Oh well.
Letting Keyon Dooling leave was a mistake from a roster standpoint, but also unavoidable from a financial one. Taking his contract demands, the resulting luxury tax payment had the Magic caved to those demands, and the money the Magic wouldn’t receive at the end of the year for staying below the tax into account, sign-and-trading him to the Nets for a trade exception — which may still come in handy — was probably the best they could do.
I’ll give them a B- for now.
4. What excites you most about the Magic in this upcoming season?
The time is now. I mean, last year they won their first playoff series since Macarena topped the charts, they have the same core of players which is now a year older, and hopefully better, and they have a fantastic head coach who knows how to light fires under his players’ behinds. If they can’t topple the Celtics or Pistons now, they might not ever.
Put another way, this season is the first in quite some time that’s been preceded by championship talk. Everyone knew the Magic would improve on their 40-42 record before last season started, but I don’t think anyone expected 52 wins and a division title.
It’s the anticipation of knowing that, for the first time in quite some time, the city fields a contending team. It’s a great feeling, one I’m sure many Blazers fans share.
5. Realistically, where would you put the Magic’s ceiling, high and low?
Their ceiling is probably in the mid-to-upper 50s; I don’t think they’re a 60-win team just yet, not until they get some muscle down low. 52 wins last year, plus another year of experience for the youngsters, plus another season under a Top-5 head coach yields something like 58 wins, maybe. But an improved Eastern Conference and the possibility of injury reduces that total. I’ll say 55 wins is realistic.
I don’t know where exactly to set the lower limit. Even if a guy like Hedo Turkoglu or Rashard Lewis gets injured and misses, say, half the season, it’s hard to imagine the team failing to win at least half its games. If Dwight Howard misses any significant time, then we’ll talk about hitting the lottery. But, as presently constructed, I don’t believe this team would win fewer than 45 games.
6. Looking at the team from all angles, what is the one thing that worries you about the Magic?
Rebounding and shot-blocking, a point I’ve belabored in answering your previous questions. Despite having the league’s best rebounder and one of its top shot-blockers, the Magic don’t have any significant rotation players who hit the boards and d-up down low. Rashard Lewis and Brian Cook are perimeter-oriented power forwards; Tony Battie is a decent defender but has never been much of a shot-blocker; and Adonal Foyle probably won’t play most nights. The wild card is Marcin Gortat, who took Foyle’s job as Howard’s backup during last year’s playoffs and who has demonstrated an ability to do that sort of dirty work. I doubt he’s ready for heavy minutes, though, which is why I worry about rebounding and shot-blocking in the long run.
7. If you were able to be GM and could only make one move, what would it be?
Really tough question. Do I make a seemingly small trade to fill a quick need, or do I push all my chips to the center of the table, swing for the fences, and mi
x my metaphors? Tough call. Taking Hedo Turkoglu’s contract status into the equation — he’s going to opt out next summer and the Magic can’t afford to pay him — I’d probably offer him and either Cook or Bogans to a team with a surplus of proven, traditional power forwards (yeah, I know, good luck with that). If I could get a point guard prospect in the deal, that’d be even better. Jameer Nelson is good, and can even be great, but the Magic need to develop a young guy behind him, as the 76ers have done with Louis Williams playing behind Andre Miller.
8. What is the key to the Magic’s success this year?
Just keep doing what they did for last year: shoot threes, play defense (despite the lack of rebounding and turnover-creation, they were the 5th-most efficient defensive team in the league, compared to the 7th-most efficient offensive team), and hope most of the guys stay healthy. Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu never missed a game, and Rashard Lewis only missed one. That’s not something they have any control over, but obviously it helps when your top three players stay ridiculously healthy.
With that said, they could use steadier point guard play. I don’t want to make excuses for Jameer Nelson, but his father died last summer, which was tough for him to deal with; he even broke down crying after one game after receiving a text-message from a friend who mentioned his father. It’d be foolhardy to attribute all of Nelson’s struggles to emotional trauma, but maybe he’ll play a bit better with a clearer head, and also knowing that there’s no competition for his starting job. Carlos Arroyo, now the highest-paid player in the history of Maccabi Tel-Aviv, really gave Jameer a scare during the early part of last season. And as long as we’re invoking summer events, I should note that Jameer got married this summer. So things are looking up for him. He should do okay.
9. Any sleepers we should look out for?
Other than Gortat, probably not. I think Pietrus might surprise some people with his defense, but nobody expects him to be the next Bruce Bowen, either. Maybe he could surprise offensively once Stan Van Gundy figures out how to incorporate his post-up game, which is apparently pretty good for a guy his size.
J.J. Redick might finally see the court regularly this year, as Stan has said that if the season started today J.J. would be in the rotation. But we know he can score (15.7 points per 36 over two years; .569 True Shooting percentage), so maybe what he does once he gets there won’t be the surprise, just the fact that he got there will suffice.
Keith Bogans is in a contract year so I’m sure he’ll bust his butt, but he’s a known commodity at this point.
10. How do you feel about Stan Van Gundy as head coach?
I feel confidently, and I might have gone on-the-record elsewhere stating he’s the best coach the team’s ever had. I think my admiration for him is something that’s come through in some of my answers. Can you name five other coaches you’d rather have on your sideline than Stan the Man? Gregg Popovich and Phil Jackson might be the only for-sure guys. Maybe you can include Mike D’Antoni in that group, although his record with teams that did not employ Steve Nash during his tenure with them is less-than-stellar. As in, like, well under .500.
He’s kind of abrasive with the players, as we’ve heard, but they also seem to like him in general. He pulled Dwight Howard out of one game after Howard groused during a timeout that he wasn’t getting enough touches offensively; when Stan told Dwight he should quit whining about points and instead start asserting himself defensively and on the glass in the next game, he responded with 23 points and 24 rebounds against Marcus Camby, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. So, uh, that worked okay.
In short, Stan has their respect. What I wonder is how long he’ll keep it. But I just overall get the impression that one does not quit on Stan Van Gundy, because Stan Van Gundy does not let one quit on him, if you know what I mean.