The Predictions: Round 2
By Coup
Absolutely nothing to brag about here thanks to my picks of the Rockets, Suns and Wizards. I might as well have let my credibility play Russian Roulette with a fully-loaded gu
Detroit vs. Orlando: Detroit has had their ‘wake-up call’ as they like to call it. Truth be told they have been playing dominant basketball since halftime of Game 4. The story remains the same with Detroit: they are the model of consistency in the Eastern Conference. It’s hard to talk about them without harping on the same things. We know they are good when they want to be good. We also know they have a tendency to get bored and to be their own worst enemy. Five straight trips to the Eastern Conference Finals will earn you the benefit of the doubt in my eyes, so we’ll pretend that they’ve magically been “woken up”. They have a few advantages over Orlando. First off, their depth. They have enough bodies to throw at Dwight with Sheed, Ratliff, McDyess and Maxiell. They could easily get him frustrated. As a matter of fact, in two of their four meetings this year Dwight ended up with less than 10 rebounds. That only happened in 10 games this year. I don’t see them double-teaming him this year because he has way better players and shooters surrounding him. Plus Sheed has guarded Duncan, KG, Shaq…we all know how he gets when he guards a big man who he thinks gets more pub or respect than him (he takes it personal). They also have a major advantage at PG. The Jameer Nelson that averaged 18 points in the first round may as well be dead. People slept on the fact that Andre Miller matched up extremely well with Chauncey. Both big, both pretty physical, things weren’t easy for Chauncey. Things weren’t easy for Miller either. Chauncey can punish Jameer on both ends of the floor, and if anything Nelson was reasons 1b why the Magic took the Raptors in 5 instead of 7. Let’s not sleep on Rip running around all over the place.
Detroit has capable bigs who can shoot and pull Dwight Howard away from the basket. Sheed can knock down the three and McDyess always seems to make the top of the key midrange jumper. I’m afraid if Ratliff and Maxiell come in, it may turn into a block party in the Motor City.
Orlando has much better players than last year. First off they have Dwight who has made the leap from monster in training to THE BEAST. He’s not phased by double-teams, he’s not a constant turnover machine and he isn’t a bricklayer at the line. At least not as much as last year. He has to keep playing at a tremendous level though. Surrounding him are Hedo and Rashard, two players who could give the Pistons fits. To have any sort of success the Magic are going to need 20 point contributions from the both of them. I say that because I’m not sure what you can count on getting from Bogans, Evans and Dooling and I’m assuming Jameer will get handcuffed. If I was Orlando I would push the tempo more than usual. Philly showed that if you can get out in run you can do some damage to these Pistons. I don’t like Orlando in a half-court battle with the Pistons, not because they can’t succeed, just because that is right up Detroit’s alley.
While the Magic have improved, I’m not quite sure they are ready to take down the Pistons yet. They do have a legitimate chance, however I’m not sure they are going to get the same dribble penetration they got against the Raptors. Actually let me upgrade that to I’m pretty dang sure they aren’t getting the same dribble penetration against the Pistons. The Raptors play next to no D while the Pistons sometimes pride themselves on it. If Detroit comes out active and goes back to using their D as a calling card look out. At the end of the day, I go with Detroit. Chauncey and Rip are too much for anyone on that team to guard and they always make the Conference Finals? Right? Right? Pistons in 6 Hornets vs. Spurs: Now this….this is going to be interesting. Where are the doubters going to go now?
On one hand you have the Hornets, 56-26, division champions of a division that sent 4 of its 5 teams to the playoffs. A team that everyone doubted coming into the season, at the All-Star break and in the first round. On the other hand you have the Spurs, 56-26, defending champions, a team that everyone slept on during the season and in the first round. What gives?
The matchups are tantalizing. Chris Paul vs. Tony Parker in a battle of the PGs. A big question for me is who is going to guard Paul? I would anticipate that the Spurs are going to put Bowen on Paul. However, I just don’t think that Bowen can keep up with Paul like he could with an older, slower Nash. Also, think of the possibilities of Peja coming off screens and having Tony Parker chasing him. Sounds like buckets to me. If Parker guards Paul, it could be a completely different story than Parker guarding Nash. And we all know when Parker was guarding Nash, they both neutralized each other. Truth be told, I would put Bowen on Paul and Parker on MoPete. I mean really…I’m not sure MoPete is going to beat you and if he does tip your cap to him.
Both teams run the pick and roll and both are more than likely going to go under and give the PGs the midrange jumper, which if Parker plays like he did in the first round might be bad news for the Hornets. The Spurs are not going to hold a trap all day like Mavs did so Paul can pick them apart. And they sure won’t be letting him get in the lane that easy so he can score, dish or throw a lob. If the Spurs can handle the pick and roll they will have a major advantage. Thats one big if though. Paul has had a memorable MVP season that few will remember or appreciate. Parker is showing up like the guy who won the Finals MVP last year, trying to make us appreciate just how great of a player he is. It’s just going to be exciting watching these two go at it and to watch all of the adjustments these two cause.
On top of Parker the Spurs still have some guy Tim Duncan and another guy named Manu Ginobili. We know the damage they can do. However in this series, against a team who can actually play some defense, the Spurs Achilles’ heel could come out. In the Phoenix series it was basically a three-man show. Parker, Duncan, Manu. They took turns having the games of their lives. Finley hit some big shots and the bench had a good third quarter in Game 2, but other than that the questions still remain. Who else on this Spur team can step up to the plate? Their outside shooting has been questionable at best, they need to get something out of Udoka and Barry from deep. I’m not sure you can beat a strong team like NO with just three guys playing, no matter how great they are. The Hornets are going to need Pargo to come off the bench and give them an offensive spark.
The key for NO is the play of David West. In the regular season when they beat the Spurs he averaged 30. When they lost he averaged 15. He’s going to have to be a machine for the Hornets to win. Ditto for Tyson Chandler, who is going to have to be active on the boards, get some blocks and stay out of foul trouble. It’s a major league dropoff from him to Hilton Armstrong especially considering Hilton will have to guard Duncan. Shudder.
I have to stick with the defending champs in this one. I have a sinking feeling the Hornets could make them look old and expose the weaknesses we all discussed at the end of the regular season. But then again the Spurs make championship plays. They know what to do, when to do it and how to do it. They steal one of these first two games in NO and the series might just be over. Popovich will make the necessary adjustments to make sure that Paul doesn’t run wild on the Spurs. At the end of the day, its going to be a great series, but I have to stick with the Spurs after that first round performance. Spurs in 6
Lakers/Jazz and Cavs/Whoever tomorrow.