Predictions: The First Round
By Coup
Ladies and gentlemen, buckle up for safety as it is time to hop on the ride of your life. Last year was a completely different feeling come playoff time for us at the Project. We were newcomers on the blog scene and were still in a fog from a very disappointing season. This year is different. We’re a year in and we’ve just gotten done enjoying one of the best 82 game seasons in recent history. Wrap your brain around this: All 8 playoff teams in the Western Conference won 50 or more games. I can’t confirm that is an official NBA record, but after researching basketball-reference.com for a while, in the past 25 years that has not happened. The closest we got was in 2000-01 when 7 out of the 8 teams had 50 or more wins. So arguably we are experiencing the greatest conference in the history of the game as 8 great teams just play great basketball. And that is not even mentioning the East, which is no slouch at all. Satisfaction is guaranteed, but as a basketball fan you cannot help but pinch yourself at the prospects.
If you’ve read the Project for a while, you knew this was coming. This year I bring you the predictions with a little hint of something I like to call credibility. Thank you, thank you, you’re far too kind. I would not still link to or talk about picking the Warriors last year if it weren’t for the fact that a) I have it in writing, b) it go immortalized and c) I picked the exact amount of games it would happen in. So I figure I can milk it for at least one more year…I mean people forgot I picked the Heat to beat the Bulls and the Nets to beat the Cavs. I know.
Boston vs. Atlanta: Before we say anything, everyone stand up and clap for the return of the Hawks to the NBA Playoffs. I mean we haven’t seen them since 1999, so applaud their first playoff appearance since the Mookie Blaylock era. They should bring back those sick jerseys that faded from black to red. And by sick I mean literally disgusting.
(By the way…I know its nice to have the Hawks back, but looking at their 37-45 record and just how they played this year…they just limped their way in. The Warriors were a feel-good story, this is just completely different.)
Also applaud the Hawks fans for going through the six levels of hell they went through. I mean to watch draft after draft get botched, to watch Chris Paul have a HOF type season, to have to watch Tyronn Lue, Anthony Johnson and Speedy Claxton battling over a starting point guard role, and having to pretend that Zaza Pachulia is a starting big men. You deserve this. So I applaud you as well.
(I don’t, however, applaud any Hawks fan who deliriously takes it too far and tries to draw parallels between the Warriors of last year and the Hawks of this year. Ending playoff droughts does not automatically equal to victories and you my friend deserve to get tazed.)
On to the series…it is nice to have the Hawks back, but they have zero chance in hell. I’m intrigued by the series because it has the feel of one of those fun “1 vs. 8” matchups that are entertaining even though you know who is winning. Perfect example was in 97 when the Bullets made the playoffs and faced the Bulls. The Hawks are doomed. They are Step 1 in the Boston Celtics’ mission to win the title. You don’t think KG, Paul and Ray Ray have been waiting to play a meaningful game? They are probably chomping at the bits to demolish the Hawks and send a message. Not to mention that, but just six days ago the Celtics second unit shut the Hawks down in a win at Atlanta. And that was a Hawks team trying to lock up a playoff seed. Let us not forget that the Hawks absolutely have nothing that resembles a bench. Just not much of a chance…at all.
So welcome back Atlanta, your comeback to the playoffs is going to go just about as good as Mase’s comeback to rap and Allan Houston’s NBA comeback. Celtics in 4
Cleveland vs. Washington: If I were a second grade teacher, this series would definitely get a gold star from me. It’s got everything you could want from a storyline standpoint. This will be the third straight year that these two teams face off in the first round of the playoffs. Cleveland has eliminated the Wiz two years in a row. If LeBron and the Cavs get past the Wizards again…wouldn’t Washington become to LeBron what Cleveland was to Jordan. He has to haunt Wizard fans at night. The Cavs are indeed the defending champions, but arguably got the easiest road of all last year by facing a Jamison-only Washington team and then a three person Nets team. Washington is out for revenge and would have been the easy pick for that sole reason had DeShawn Stevenson not openly called LeBron “overrated” and the Wiz had not campaigned to face the Cavs. You know, it usually is not a good idea to wake up a sleeping giant like LeBron and you definitely do not want anyone around him getting motivated, not one bit.
However I have to give the edge to the Wizards in this series. LeBron’s supporting cast is even weaker than last year. Damon Jones is firmly in the doghouse, Boobie Gibson has shot 7-35 from behind the arc since returning from injury on March 29th and Wally’s World has been wildly inconsistent. Not to mention that Cleveland is depending on contributions from Devin Brown and Sasha Pavlovic. Also, none of these guys really have playoff experience. This is a series where the Cavs are going to miss Drew Gooden. Ben Wallace and Varejao are big, and can help on D but both are liabilities on offense. Funny how an offensively challenged team like Cleveland developed a mild case of Bull-itis (no low post threat) When you have a guy like LeBron…you can’t have any liabilities. I just think Eddie Jordan will find a way to shackle the Cavs offense, besides, they backed their way in to the playoffs going 5-7 down the stretch. Last year’s Cleveland team didn’t look good on paper, but they all played well together. They all knew their roles and contributed. It just seems like right now for Cleveland not everyone is sure where they fit in and they have trouble playing together. The Wizards are peaking at just the right time. Winners of 5 of their last 7, things just seem to be clicking right. Antawn Jamison is balling, Caron Butler is having a career year and Gilbert will be coming off the bench. That’s one hell of a spark. Their X-Factor is DeShawn Stevenson. He has got to hit shots and give them about 12-15 a game. He does that they win pretty easy.
The combination of the two straight eliminations, combined with the rough things Washington fans and players have had to deal with the past couple years give enough karma in my eyes to push them over the top. And yes I will be apologizing if LeBron averages 40 and the Cavs win. Wizards in 6.
Detroit vs. Philadelphia: I like this series if only because it will be interesting to see the Sixers in the playoffs without Allen Iverson. Nobody saw this coming? What everyone did see coming? The Pistons winning this series. On paper, the Sixers actually do match up pretty well with the Pistons. Andre Miller vs. Billups, Iggy vs. Tayshaun, Dalembert/Evans vs. Sheed/McDyess. Not to mention the fact that the Sixers have won the last two matchups between the two, including one in Detroit on March 13th when the season was still in effect. However, I have to give it to Detroit for two obvious reasons: their experience and their depth. In a 7-game series it will be too much for the Sixers to overcome. I just don’t think Philly has enough offensive firepower to keep up with the Pistons. I just can’t trust a team who is relying on perimeter scoring in the playoffs from Willie Green. Don’t expect a high-scoring battle people: in their first three regula
r season games, the Sixers and Pistons were stuck in the mid 80s. Unless Mo Cheeks finds a way to completely outcoach Flip (highly possible) the Pistons say ‘screw it’, I don’t see Philly winning. They could make it interesting with a win at home, but Pistons prevail. Pistons in 5
Orlando vs. Toronto: Last year, Toronto was the ‘it’ pick and they went down in stunning fashion to the Nets. I learned my lesson then. Last year the Raptor storyline was the great team basketball and how everyone trusted each other. Well 10 days ago Chris Bosh said he lost trust in his teammates. That was enough for me. Magic in 6
Seriously though…that is definitely not what you want to hear from your superstar right before the playoffs start. I mean those kind of comments linger for a while. Imagine if your significant other said she wasn’t confident in your ability to dress well..right before you went out on a date. You’d be thinking about it the whole night. Just like his teammates will be thinking about it the second he misses an open teammate or jacks up a fadeaway jumper. Dwight vs. Bosh will be an interesting matchup of young big-men. I don’t see much of a chance for Toronto. For one because of the fact that two of their top 4 scorers are their point guards. That’s never good. And secondly, Orlando has Dwight, Hedo and Rashard and that’s really all they need against a team with no D like Toronto. And again…Chris Bosh has lost trust in his teammates.
Lakers vs. Denver: Last time these two teams played was January 21st 2008. Denver came in at 24-15, Lakers were 26-12. Lakers won 116-99….Kwame Brown was the starting center. You see my quandary in even building up an argument for the Nuggets winning this series. This series is of course going to be interesting and fun to watch. The Nuggets just don’t have near enough depth to deal with the Lakers night-in and night-out. I mean they start Anthony Carter at PG for pete’s sake. To even begin having a chance, Denver would need big series from JR Smith, Kleiza and Najera…all three who should have their pictures next to ‘inconsistent’ in the dictionary. I just feel like Smith is one move away from going right back in George Karl’s doghouse. I’ll give Melo and AI a couple home wins, but the Lakers prevail. Lakers in 6
Houston vs. Utah: Forgive me loyal readers for I am about to contradict myself. I have to go with the Houston Rockets in this series. I have to. Forget the fact that the Rockets do not have Yao Ming. Forget that T-Mac has yet to make it out of the first round. Forget that Rick Adelman is known for getting his coaching can handed to him in the playoffs. Forget that X-Factor Rafer Alston is guaranteed to be out for the first two games of the series, and more than likely hobbled the rest of the way. Forget the fact that the Jazz beat them two out of three times this year. I have to pick the Houston Rockets. Tracy McGrady needs this. Unlike last year he isn’t screaming ‘IT’S ON ME’ at Stephen A Smith. But if you remember the pain, the hurt, the tears after losing that Game 7…you know that he will come out with a vengeance. His legacy depends on it. Besides…the Rockets have the homecourt advantage and are a much better home-team than last year. Also, the Jazz see the road as kryptonite.
Know this. If the Jazz steal one of the first two in Houston while Rafer is out, they are winning the series. It’s nearly impossible to win in Utah, especially in the playoffs. There is something about that arena that just makes the impossible happen. Think in your basketball memories, you could dig up at least 100 plays where the Jazz end up hitting a clutch shot and that crowd goes wild.
Ah who the hell am I kidding. Okur is back to playing like a monster, the Jazz have Kyle Korver, the Sloan System and are more than likely going to win one of these first two while Rafer is out. Last time I made a pick using my heart, I watched the Heat get demolished last year.
NO! I’m going with the Rockets. T-Mac has to win. He just has too. Rockets in 7
New Orleans vs. Dallas: How the Mavs became the popular pick just befuddles me. I mean haven’t we been dogging them the whole year? Didn’t everyone just pick them as the team to not the playoffs a couple weeks ago?? Does everyone forget this team lost 2 of their last 3 games, on the road against Portland and Seattle…both who are enjoying vacation right now? And this was while they were still fighting for playoff position. Can someone please explain how this happened? Seriously.
All year, people have called the Hornets a fluke. When they were #1 in the West going into the All-Star break no one thought it would last. It did. I mean they were right there as the top seed in the West. And now everyone is saying that they are the weakest of the top 4 seeds in the West. Eventually someone has to give them credit for the year they have had…I’ll be the one. Just because Dallas beat New Orleans on Wednesday in Dallas does not mean they are winning this series. It’s easy to see that the Mavs are 34-7 at home…but lets not forget they are 17-24 on the road. They have a tendency to disappear on the road. New Orleans went 30-11 at home and 26-15 on the road. Now imagine this Hornets team with an actual home court advantage that they will have in that arena during this series. Everyone wants to give the edge to Dallas because they have more playoff experience. What good playoff experience do the Mavs have? Choking in the finals two years ago? Losing as a #1 seed to a #8 seed last year? And exactly how much playoff experience did the Warriors have last year? And how much did playoff experience help the Pistons when they lost to the Cavs last year?
I just don’t buy it. Hornets have more talent yet continue to be doubted. Hornets in 7
San Antonio vs. Phoenix: I still cannot believe that this is a first-round series in the West. To me, the Phoenix Suns lucked out. I for one believed that it was going to be ironic that the year they had a team engineered to beat the Spurs…they might not even play them. Well, they are definitely playing them. Kids, tell me what happens to defending champions that run into teams hungrier than them? They lose. Especially when it is the Spurs. Won a title, ran into that all-star Laker team. Lost. Won a title, ran into Dallas. Lost. Won a title, ran into a Suns team with a sense of urgency and revenge on their mind. And they’ll lose. And yes that’s the basis of my argument. Shaq can neutralize Duncan on D and is a much better option on O than Kurt Thomas. All that being said the Suns need big performances from Hill, Diaw and Barboas. I expect they’ll get it and get the win. Suns in 6