I was sitting down here to bust out my weekend picks when I realized, I don’t want to feel like an idiot if say, TO (who just declared himself Dallas’ fifth captain) takes too many pills again tonight. Therefore, my picks will be up tomorrow. In the meantime, here’s an interesting NBA link from Sports Illustrated on ten players who are on the verge of being stars.
Now I love lists as much as the next guy, but those photo gallery lists SI always posts are really annoying because they offer next to no analysis. Any schmuck on the street can say, ‘Hey, that Brandon Roy was Rookie of the Year, he’s gonna be a stud,’ but it takes a different kind of fan to determine why exactly they will be a star. I will say however, this one is better than usual, but one good apple doesn’t make me want to buy juice from that orchard yet.
So I’m going to do what SI didn’t do, tell you why, or why not, those 10 players will be stars, going in the same order they did. Complete with stat predictions for the ’07-08 season. Any of you who play fantasy basketball are going to think, ‘hey, that guy was already a stud on my squad,’ that’s what I thought too, especially about this first guy.
1. Luol Deng – Bulls
One of many, many players Jay Bilas has described as long, athletic and explosive, but one of the only ones who has actually done anything with those birthrights. Deng can, here’s key word, consistently score from most anywhere on the court, most importantly from mid-range. He can’t quite create for himself at will yet, but he can pull up off the dribble or take slower SF’s to the hole. He’s a beast on the boards as well — needs to step up the blocks. Sidenote: nice story about his summer, in case you missed it.
Season Stat Predictions: 22.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.0 bpg, 1.3 spg.
2. Deron Williams – Jazz
SI.com: “Some may already consider Williams a bona fide star after the way he helped lead Utah to the Western Conference finals last season.” Gee, thanks SI, tough call on that one, huh? They’re right, I do already consider him a star, he just happens to play in the same conference as Steve Nash right now, so he’s a less marketable star.
Season Stat Predictions: 18.5 ppg, 10.5 apg, 4.3 rpg, 0.1 bpg, 1.4 spg.
3. Al Jefferson – Timberwolves
Kevin McHale sure hopes so. But frankly, I’ve always been more impressed with Zach Randolph’s offense. Big Al certainly swings a bigger stick on D than Zach (anyone does) with 1.5 blocks per game, but he needs to fix that open-faced hook shot of his before he reaches that 20-10 plateau (which, in accordance with the media mandate, is what we will judge all power forwards by, even if, like Randolph, those stats come at the expense of your team. Why is it so much more difficult for a forward/center to be called a ballhog than a swingman? This ain’t high school, they get plenty of good entry passes). If your still with me after that mini-rant, I think the hook shot will be fixed, even if McHale puts headphones on Al at night with the phrase, ‘I will close my shoulders and shoot over the defender so I don’t get swatted,’ playing over and over.
Season Stat Predictions: 19.7 ppg, 12.3 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.6 bpg, 0.6 spg.
4. Andre Iguodala – 76ers
Should’ve won the dunk contest, and should put up All-Star numbers in Philly. Whether he makes the All-Star game or not is up to the league-wide coach’s burn-book (yes, I just referenced Mean Girls, I wouldn’t make fun of it or S-Dot will rant on you). Of anyone on this list, except maybe Roy, Iggy will ascend Mt. Popularitympus and become a true star. Season Stat Predictions: 23.9 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 5.8 apg, 0.6 bpg, 2.3 spg.
5. Josh Smith – Hawks
Stars make the playoffs, the Hawks won’t. Sorry Josh, I love your fantasy numbers, but I’m not putting you on a chain and throwing you overboard when I want to steady my franchise quite yet.
Season Stat Predictions: 18.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 3.5 apg, 3.2 bpg, 1.8 spg.
6. Gerald Wallace – Bobcats
See above, except he might actually get to savor the postseason. If he does, we will be told he has gone through a breakout year, even though that already came last season. He can’t dominate from the perimeter, but a solid mid-range game is starting to bloom (Just so you know, I love the mid-range, that’s why I think Kobe is the greatest of this-time). J-Rich’s presence will hinder his scoring going above 20.
Season Stat Predictions: 18.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.2 bpg, 2.1 spg.
7. Tyson Chandler – Hornets
Defensive and rebounding-oriented players usually only reach that next level if they get deep into the playoffs. Bruce Bowen plays great defense, but he’s not a star. A star can control multiple aspects of the game, they’re dynamic. Chandler, when healthy, could become what Marcus Camby is, when healthy, but he’ll never be a perennial 20-10 guys — his body movements aren’t even consistent, much less his hook-shot.
Season Stat Predictions: 12.5 ppg, 13.2 rpg, 1.0 apg, 2.4 bpg, 0.6 spg.
8. Brandon Roy – Blazers
The ROY has all season to up his star cache now that Oden won’t be hogging the limelight (sigh…). Is a better playmaker than east-coasters realize and will be a perimeter leader on a contending team once his frontcourt takes shape. Two more things people don’t often remember about him: He is ridiculously quick, especially his first step, and he has a 40″ vertical which he just doesn’t use very often, except in practice.
Season Stat Predictions: 22.5 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.9 apg, 0.4 bpg, 1.3 spg.
9. Kevin Martin – Kings
Will probably never be a network darling no matter how much Bill Walton waxes poetic about his efficiency. Neverthel
ess, he is the guy for the Kings now that Bibby’s devil contract has run out and Brad Miller’s body realized it wasn’t as good as it’s mind was telling it. Good numbers, but won’t lead a team deep into the playoffs.
Season Stat Predictions: 23.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.0 apg, 0.1 bpg, 1.4 spg.
10. Monta Ellis – Warriors
Here’s where they lost me. Ellis is a great beneficiary of Don Nelson’s existence. Strong numbers are on the way with J-Rich gone, and could be a nice third option later on in his career, but very few guys his size can dominate the way a Zeke Thomas did in the playoffs.
Season Stat Predictions: 18.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.5 apg, 0.2 bpg, 2.0 spg.
Call me a homer, but the most notable exception from this list, and the guy that will make the greatest ascension, stats-wise and popularity-wise, LaMarcus Aldridge — 20-10 this year, just watch.